[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA: Absolutely amazing. The media can support
withdrawal and the politicians/academics/White House etc. can continue with
their mantra that the street supports marching Israel down the Roadmap
gangplank and yet despite all this when the pollsters call a random sample
of people on the phone and give them an opportunity to say what they think -
oops.

And it isn't just on the Israeli side. Ms. Rice can repeat a thousand times
how she is absolutely positive that the Palestinian street is "moderate"
etc. but when the pollsters ask Palestinians the proper questions (rather
than questions engineered to produce a headline for poll sponsors who want
to promote a given policy) - oops.

"As for the outcomes of the war, what may explain the fact that the foreign
and security issues are perceived as less grave is that 42% think Israel
emerged stronger from the war and 27% that its status has not changed" =
69% said Israel emerged either stronger or unchanged by the war.

Prof. Ephraim Yaar explained to IMRA that he felt that many of the 27% who
said that Israel's status had not changed felt that its status before the
war was also low, thus in his write up he emphasized the negative: " About
one quarter view Israel's regional military status as weaker. That is, the
rate of those who believe Israel's power has not changed or has weakened is
higher than the rate of those who assess that it has strengthened. " ]

Peace Index: July 2007
Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Prof. Tamar Hermann

Although a considerable Israeli Jewish minority currently supports an
extensive Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank (except for the large
settlement blocs), the majority does not support such a move even if it
occurs in the framework of a peace agreement with the Palestinians.
Moreover, the majority objects to the freeing of the Palestinian prisoners
even though it was aimed at helping Abu Mazen boost his status among the
Palestinian public, and an even larger majority opposes the release of
Marwan Barghouti despite the possibility that, if freed, he could strengthen
the status of the secular Palestinian leadership. This position partly
stems, apparently, from the Israeli Jewish public's current lack of hope
that negotiations with the Palestinian Authority can lead to peace in the
foreseeable future. This also explains the fact that only a minority
presently supports the stationing of an international peacekeeping force in
the West Bank to enable an extensive Israeli withdrawal. However, the
prevailing view is that the involvement of Arab states such as Jordan,
Egypt, and Saudi Arabia in peace deliberations would raise the chances of
achieving a regional peace accord. At the same time, in the national order
of priorities of the Israeli Jewish public, the rate of those who think
Israel's domestic and governmental problems are the most serious is twice as
high as the rate of those who think so regarding its foreign and security
problems.

A full year after the outbreak of the Second Lebanon War, the large majority
of Israeli Jews believes the decision to go to war was right but the war was
poorly managed, although a considerable minority holds the view that both
the decision to go to war and its management were defective. A tiny minority
both justifies the war and believes it was well managed. As for the changes
that have occurred since the war, the plurality view regarding both
Hizballah and Israel is that they have been strengthened compared to the
period before the war. However, the rate of those assessing that the two
sides' power has either remained as it was or declined is greater than the
rate of those who think it has increased. A substantial majority of the
Jewish public is sure or thinks the army has taken the necessary corrective
measures based on the lessons of the war, but only a small minority says the
same about the steps the civil authorities have taken since the war.

On the question of recruitment to the IDF, a sweeping majority of the Jewish
public is very worried about that fact that significant percentages of
draftees in recent years were not recruited, while making distinctions
between groups on the question of whether nonrecruitment is justified.
Almost all decline to justify nonrecruitment for reasons of conscience or
yeshiva studies, and a considerable majority says the same about exemptions
for girls who declare their religiosity. There is broad agreement, however,
that nonrecruitment for physical or mental health reasons is justified.

Those are the main findings of the Peace Index survey for July 2007, which
was carried out from Monday to Wednesday, 30 July-1 August.

Although a substantial minority-42%-of the Israeli Jewish public supports a
broad Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank (except for the large settlement
blocs) in the framework of a peace treaty with the Palestinians, the
majority-53%-opposes such a measure. A segmentation of the positions on this
question by voting for the Knesset in the most recent elections reveals, not
surprisingly, a majority of supporters of a withdrawal among those who voted
for Meretz (92%), but also among voters for Labor (76%), the Pensioners
(65%), and Kadima (63.5%). Conversely, supporters of a withdrawal are only a
small minority among voters for Yisrael Beiteinu (29%) and Likud (22%), and
even fewer among voters for the National Religious Party/National Union
(19%), Shas (6%), and Torah Judaism (0%).

Coolness toward the Palestinians is also evident in the position of the
majority- 59%-that Israel erred in releasing the Palestinian prisoners in
order to strengthen the status of Abu Mazen (33.5% think this was the right
step and the rest do not know).

An even larger majority-71%-oppose the idea that Israel should release from
prison Tanzim leader Marwan Barghouti, who was sentenced for his involvement
in severe acts of terror. This would be to enable Barghouti, who is very
popular among the Palestinian public, to bolster the Palestinian secular
forces in their struggle against Hamas and the Islamic forces (22% favor the
release and the rest have no opinion on the matter).

This unwillingness to take confidence-building measures, and to withdraw
from territory, can perhaps be attributed to the lack of belief among the
Israeli Jewish majority-63%-that negotiations with the Palestinian Authority
can lead to peace in the foreseeable future. Indeed, among the minority who
do think negotiations can lead to a peace treaty, 68% favor a far-reaching
Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank in the context of such an agreement
whereas, among those who do not believe in the chances of negotiations,
exactly that number oppose a withdrawal. At the same time, it appears that
the hope for a regional settlement has still not completely eroded; a
majority-53%- assesses that the involvement of Arab states such as Jordan,
Egypt, and also Saudi Arabia in political contacts would raise the chances
of finding a formula for regional peace (35% do not believe such involvement
would raise these chances and the rest have no opinion).

Especially interesting is the finding on the question: "When you think about
the problems Israel is dealing with today, which type of problem appears to
you most severe: the foreign and security problems or the domestic and
governmental problems?" Fifty-five percent responded that the domestic and
governmental problems are the gravest and only 22% saw the foreign and
security problems as more pressing (19% regarded the two types of problems
as equally severe and the rest had no opinion).

The feeling that the domestic problems are more serious may be connected to
a finding about the drawing of lessons from the Second Lebanon War. Only 20%
think the government has taken the necessary measures to fix what was found
to be defective in the war, compared to 52% who say the army has drawn its
lessons and is taking the necessary corrective measures. More generally,
note also that the majority-55%- thinks in retrospect that the war was
justified but poorly managed. Thirty-nine percent say both that the decision
to go to war was mistaken and it was badly managed, while only 2% say the
war was both justified and well managed (the rest have no clear opinion). As
for the outcomes of the war, what may explain the fact that the foreign and
security issues are perceived as less grave is that 42% think Israel emerged
stronger from the war and 27% that its status has not changed. About one
quarter view Israel's regional military status as weaker. That is, the rate
of those who believe Israel's power has not changed or has weakened is
higher than the rate of those who assess that it has strengthened.
Incidentally, a similar assessment was obtained regarding Hizballah-44%
think it has been strengthened, 28% that its status remains the same, and
18.5% that it has weakened.

The issue of the decline in army recruitment rates is now on the public
agenda. Interviewees were asked: "Recently it was published that significant
percentages of the draft in recent years do not serve in the army or do not
complete their full period of service. Some say that in today's situation,
when the military drafts are large and there are enough soldiers, this
phenomenon gives no reason to worry. However, others say the phenomenon is
very worrisome because in the present situation the burden of service is
unequally distributed. With which claim do you identify more?" Only 15%
identified with the first claim, an overwhelming majority of 78% with the
second. Note that, although in the two youngest age groups as well only a
minority supported the first claim, their rate of support for this claim was
higher than in the older groups. When we presented to the interviewees the
four main groups in the Jewish population who do not serve in the army, only
a small minority justified the nonrecruitment of pacifists and those
refusing to serve on a political basis-16%; the nonrecruitment of yeshiva
students-28% of the interviewees; and the nonrecruitment of girls who
declare their religiosity-41%. However, a majority of 81% justified the
nonrecruitment of those with social and health problems.

The peace indexes for this month were:

General Oslo Index: 34.8 (Jewish sample: 31.4)

General Negotiation Index: 50.1 (Jewish sample: 47.1)

The Peace Index Project is conducted at the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace
Research and the Evens Program in Mediation and Conflict Resolution of Tel
Aviv University, headed by Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Prof. Tamar Hermann. The
telephone interviews were conducted by the B. I. Cohen Institute of Tel Aviv
University on July 30- August 1st , 2007, and included 600 interviewees who
represent the adult Jewish and Arab population of Israel (including the
territories and the kibbutzim). The sampling error for a sample of this size
is 4.5%.

For the survey data see: www.tau.ac.il/peace