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Thursday, November 15, 2007
Weekly Commentary: Secretary Rice fails as amateur pollster

Weekly Commentary: Secretary Rice fails as amateur pollster

Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 15 November 2007

It seems that every time U.S. Secretary of State Rice or Israel President
Shimon Peres make public remarks about the Arab Israeli conflict they don
their amateur pollster's caps and proclaim that the Israeli street supports
the measures that they advocate.

And they are wrong.

Now it could very well be that most of the English speaking Israelis that
Ms. Rice encounters are eager for a "land for piece" (of paper) deal and
certainly Mr. Peres' acolytes may share his virtual reality take on the
situation. But you can't gauge the attitude of the street by relying on
such a skewed sample.

Polls are far from exact tools in measuring public opinion, but they are
magnitudes more accurate than the Rice-Peres straw polls.

One of the most fascinating findings of polls of the Israeli public is the
consistent response to the following basic question:

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: "Most of the
Palestinians have not accepted Israel's existence and would destroy it if
they could."

Here are the results for Israeli Jews polled in the Peace Index October
29-30 poll:
Agree a lot 44.5% Considerably agree 20.2%
Middle 13.2%
Considerably disagree 11.2% Disagree a lot 7.9%
Don't know/No reply 3.0%

Again, the question didn't read "the Palestinians would like to destroy
Israel if they don't get a sovereign Palestinian state". It didn't even say
"the Palestinians would like to destroy Israel if all their demands are not
met."

Rice confuses Fatah for the NAACP and keeps on thinking that if the
Palestinians would just be given a sovereign state and "dignity" (which
apparently means not being subject to vital Israeli security operations)
that peace would reign eternally . Peres continues to doggedly adhere to
his flush toilet theory of peace, arguing essentially that the ideological
drive to destroy the Jewish State can be neutralized via an improved living
standard.

But that's not what the Israeli street thinks.

The Israeli public, at least when it stops for a moment to think, views
policy issues through the prism of the fundamental truth that Rice and Peres
deny: that regardless of what concessions we make, most of the Palestinians
have not accepted Israel's existence and would destroy it if they could.

Sure, the "Dumbo" questions can get some respondents to say that they
support withdrawals in return for "real peace". But "real peace" is hardly
guaranteed by the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state (and, Dumbo's
ears can flap enough to make the elephant fly).

That's why the Peace Index found that 59% oppose, in exchange for a peace
agreement, transferring the Arab neighborhoods of Jerusalem to Palestinian
sovereignty so that they can serve as the capital of Palestine (33% support
it).

A Maagar Mohot poll of Israeli Jews 18-26 October (commissioned by the
Israel Policy Center for Promoting Parliamentary Democracy and Jewish Values
in Israeli Public Life) released this week is chock-a-bloc with similar
results:

In light of the current situation of the PA, do you support or oppose that
Israel should commit to transfer parts of Jerusalem to Palestinian control??
Oppose 69% Maybe 11% Support 17% Other replies 3%

In light of the current situation of the PA, do you support or oppose that
Israel should commit to remove the IDF from most of Judea and Samaria, and
transfer it to Palestinian control? Oppose 61% Maybe 15% Support 22% Other
replies 2%

In light of the experience with the disengagement, do you support or oppose
that Israel should commit to a mass evacuation of Jewish communities in
Judea and Samaria? Oppose 65% Maybe 13% Support 19% Other replies 3%

Do you agree or disagree with the claim that in light of the experience of
the past Israel should deal with the Palestinians with a tougher approach
and not seek simple ways to solve the Israel-Arab conflict? Agree 65%
Disagree 28% Other replies 7%

And it goes on.

No. The Israeli street doesn't share the convictions of either Ms. Rice or
Mr. Peres.

They can argue their positions. But they certainly have no business claiming
that it is the voice of the Israeli street.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il

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