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Monday, January 7, 2008
Bush clueless about Palestinian street - Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No. (26) - 56.9% support armed action

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No. (26) shows Bush clueless about
Palestinian street (results)
Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA:

President Bush is in good company in being clueless about the Palestinian
street.

But that doesn't excuse making policy based on the false assertion of what
Palestinians think.

Consider these results:

+ 56.9% Support armed action
46)People's evaluations of the future chances of the peace process and the
armed struggle vary. For example, some believe that the peace process is a
failure and that only way to end the occupation is the resort to armed
attacks while others believe that armed attacks are responsible for the
failure of the peace process. What about you? Which of the following four
views you support:
21.1% the peace process is not successful in ending occupation and should
be stopped in favor of resort to armed action
35.8% the peace process should not be stopped because it still might
succeed, but at the same time armed action should continue
25.7% the peace process has not failed and should be given more time and in
the meanwhile armed action should be stopped
12.0% armed action is responsible for the stagnation of the peace process
and if it is stopped, the peace process would make progress
5.5% DK/NA

+ If Palestinians got everything they wanted 44.5% oppose "mutual
recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the
state of the Palestinians."
24)There is a proposal that after the establishment of an independent
Palestinian state and the settlemnet of all issues in dispute, including the
refugees and Jerusalem issues, there will be a mutual recognition of Israel
as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the
Palestinians people. Do you agree or disagree to this proposal?
6.3% Definitely agree
42.7% agree
34.0% disagree
14.5% definitely disagree
2.6% DK/NA

+ Even when right of return is presented as "return of refugees to Israel"
a deal giving the Palestinians everything they ostensibly want is rejected
by 32% of the population - and again this is a "non-starter" deal.

33) According to the Saudi plan, Israel will retreat from all territories
occupied in 1967 including Gaza the West Bank, Jerusalem and the Golan
Heights, and a Palestinian state will be established. The refugees problem
will be resoved through negotiation in a just and agreed upon manner and in
accordance with UN resolution 194 which allows return of refugees to Israel
and compensation. In return, all Arab states will recognize Israel and its
right to secure borders, will sign peace treaties with her and establish
normal diplomatic relations. Do you agree or disagree to this plan?
7.9% Certainly agree
56.9% agree
23.3% disagree
8.7% Certainly disagree
3.2% DK/NA

+ A deal that looks like a version of the kind of post-Clinton fomulas
Ayalong and others have been using foreign money to push for years is
rejected 49.3%:47.4%

43-7)Item #7: the combined elements as one permanent status settlement
2.2% Strongly agree
45.2% Agree
32.1% Disagree
17.2% Strongly Disagree
3.3% No Opinion /Don't Know

==================
Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No. (26)

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center
for Policy and Survey Research in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip during
11-16 December 2007. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed
face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid
Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

www.pcpsr.org/survey/polls/2007/p26e2.html

00 )From among the following satellite news stations, which one you watched
most during the last two months?
8.6% Al Arabia
53.2% Al Jazeera
0.2% Al Hurra
1.7% Al Manar
13.5% Palestine TV
11.3% Al-Aqsa TV
6.1% Do not watch TV
2.4% Others
2.8% Do not have a dish
0.2% No Opinion/Don't know

01)Are you satisfied or not satisfied with the performance of Mahmud Abbas
since his election as president of the PA?
8.1% Very satisfied
41.5% Satisfied
32.9% Not satisfied
12.8% not satisfied at all
4.7% DK/NA

02)If new presidential elections are to take place today, and Mahmud Abbas
was nominated by Fateh and Ismail Haniyeh was nominated by Hamas, whom would
you vote for?
55.8% Mahmoud Abbas
36.7% Ismael Haneyyeh
7.4% 3 DK/NA

03)And if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti representing Fateh
and Ismael Haneyyeh representing Hams, whom would you vote for?
63.4% Marwan Barghouti
32.2% Ismael Haneyyeh
4.4% No Opinion/ Don't know

05)If new elections agreed to by all factions are held today and the same
lists that took part in the last PLC elections were nominated, for whom
would you vote?
1.3% alternative
3.4% independent Palestine
3.7% Abu Ali Mustafa
0.1% Abu al Abbas
0.2% freedom and social justice
30.5% change and reform
0.2% national coalition for justice and democracy
0.8% third way
0.3% freedom and independence
0.1% Palestinian justice
49.0% Fateh
10.5% 12) none of the above/ DK/NA

06)Hamas carried out a military step in mid June against security
headquarters belonging to the PA in the Gaza Strip and succeeded after that
in controlling the Strip. Do you approve or disapprove of what Hamas did?
5.2% Strongly approve
16.1% Approve
44.6% Disapprove
29.6% Strongly disapprove
4.5% DK/NA

07)President Mahmud Abbas dismissed the government of Ismail Haniyeh after
the Gaza events about three months ago. But the prime minister of the
dismissed government remained in his position in the Gaza Strip. Do you
approve or disapprove of his decision to stay in his position?
8.1% Strongly approve
33.9% Approve
37.4% Disapprove
14.4% Strongly disapprove
6.3% DK/NA

08)Moreover, President Abbas appointed an emergency government headed by
Salam Fayyad. After the ending of the emergency period and due to the
inability of the PLC to convene, the government of Fayyad became a care
taker one. Do you approve or disapprove of the continued functioning of this
government?
8.4% Strongly approve
42.9% Approve
31.2% Disapprove
8.5% Strongly disapprove
9.1% DK/NA

09)Now after the events in the Gaza Strip and the separation between the
Palestinian authorities in Gaza and the Palestinian authorities in the West
Bank, what do you expect to happen in the future? Will the separation remain
or will the two authorities be unified?
35.6% the two authorities will be unified in the next few months
21.7% the two authorities will be unified but within a year or two
17.2% the two authorities will not be unified soon or in the next two years
16.9% separation between the West Bank and Gaza will be consolidated and
will become permanent
8.5% DK/NA

10)After the separation between Gaza and the West Bank, Hamas and the
government of Ismail Haniyeh remained in power in Gaza and considered itself
the legitimate government while president Abu Mazin formed a new government
headed by Salam Fayyad and it too considered itself legitimate. What about
you, which of the two government you consider legitimate, the government of
Haniyeh or the government of Abu Mazin and Fayyad?
26.8% Haniyehs' government is the legitimate one
36.8% Abu Mazin's and Fayyad government is the legitimate one
10.7% Both governments are legitimate
21.1% Both governments are not legitimate
4.6% DK/NA

11)Fateh and Hamas and the two authorities in Gaza and the West Bank are
currently engaged in a competition to win public support and confidence
through the use of media such as Palestine TV and al Aqsa TV stations. When
you hear news from the two sides, which side you trust more, the news spread
by Hamas and Haniyeh's government or the news spread by Fateh and the Abu
Mazin's and Fayyad's government?
19.4% Trust Hamas and Haniyeh's government
24.2% Trust Fateh and Abu Mazin's and Salam's governemtn
4.5% Trust both sides
45.9% Trust neither side
6.0% DK/NA

12)Do you think Hamas plans to take control of the West Bank by force in
the same way it took control over the Gaza Strip?
20.0% Certainly it plans to do that
21.4% it plans to do that
37.4% it does not plan to do that
9.1% Certainly it does not plan to do that
12.0% No opinion/Don't know

13)In general, how would you describe conditions of the Palestinians in the
Palestinian areas in Gaza Strip these days?
1.9% Very good
6.0% Good
5.9% So so
30.3% Bad
55.0% Very bad
0.9% DK/NA

14)In general, how would you describe conditions of the Palestinians in the
Palestinian areas in the West Bank these days?
5.6% Very good
24.9% Good
26.5% So so
28.4% Bad
12.1% Very bad
2.5% DK/NA

15)Generally, do you see yourself as:
48.9% Religious
47.0% Somewhat religious
3.6% Not religious
0.4% DK/NA

16)Generally, do you see yourself as:
68.7% Supportive of the peace process
16.0% Opposed to the peace process
14.7% Between support and opposition
0.6% DK/NA

17)Do you think that there is corruption in PA institutions under the
control of President Abu Mazin?
77.8% Yes
12.7% No
9.5% DK/NA

18)If yes, will this corruption in PA institutions under the control of
President Abu Mazin increase, decrease or remain as it is in the future?
42.2% Will increase
14.3% Will remain as it is
36.8% will decrease
6.7% DK/NA

19)Do you think that there is corruption in PA institutions under the
control of Ismail Haniyeh's government?
57.9% Yes
26.7% No
15.3% DK/NA

20)If yes, will this corruption in PA institutions under the control of
Ismail Haniyeh's government increase, decrease or remain as it is in the
future?
55.2% Will increase
13.5% Will remain as it is
21.5% will decrease
9.8% DK/NA

21)Would you say that these days your security and safety, and that of your
family, is assured or not assured?
8.1% Completely assured
38.7% Assured
41.9% Not assured
11.1% Not assured at all
0.3% DK/NA

22)Do current political, security, and economic conditions lead you to seek
emigration abroad?
13.2% Certainly seek to emigration
14.1% Seek emigration
29.9% Do not seek emigration
42.3% Certainly do not seek emigration
0.5% DK/NA

23)What do you expect to happen now between Palestinians and Israelis,
after the Annapolis Conference?
17.6% Negotiations will resume soon enough and armed confrontations will
stop
41.5% Negotiations will resume but some armed attacks will continue
32.4% Armed confrontations will not stop and the two sides will not return
to negotiations
8.5% DK/NA

24)There is a proposal that after the establishment of an independent
Palestinian state and the settlemnet of all issues in dispute, including the
refugees and Jerusalem issues, there will be a mutual recognition of Israel
as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the
Palestinians people. Do you agree or disagree to this proposal?
6.3% Definitely agree
42.7% agree
34.0% disagree
14.5% definitely disagree
2.6% DK/NA

25)And what is the Palestinian majority opinion on this issue? Do most
Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza support or oppose the recognition of
Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the
Palestinian people at the end of the peace process?
43.0% Majority supports
47.5% Majority opposes
9.4% DK/NA

26)And what is the Israeli majority opinion on this issue? Do most Israelis
support or oppose the recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish
people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people at the end of
the peace process?
40.2% Majority supports
48.0% Majority opposes
11.9% DK/NA

27)Now 40 years after the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza
Strip, what in your view are the chances for the establishment of an
independent Palestinian state next to the state of Israel in the next five
years? Are they high, medium, low, or none existent?
26.5% None existent
38.5% Low
27.0% Medium
5.2% High
2.8% DK/NA

28)Now, after the separation of the Gaza and the West Bank, continued
functioning of the Haniyeh's government in Gaza, and the formation of the
Salam Fayyad government, tell us what your expectations are with regard to
the following issues in the Gaza Strip.

- Economic conditions such as poverty and unemployment in the Gaza Strip
0.8% Very Good
4.6% Good
36.7% Bad
56.6% Very Bad
1.3% No Opinion/ Don't know

- Enforcement of law and order in the Gaza Strip
7.9% Very Good
27.5% Good
31.2% Bad
28.9% Very Bad
4.5% No Opinion/ Don't know

- Status of democracy, particularly with regard to freedom of the press in
the Gaza Strip
4.3% Very Good
23.8% Good
31.5% Bad
33.0% Very Bad
7.4% No Opinion/ Don't know

- Safety and security for you and your family in the Gaza Strip
1) Very Good
2) Good
3) Bad
4) Very Bad
5) No Opinion/ Don't know

29)And what about the same conditions in the West Bank? tell us what your
expectations are with regard to the following issues in the West Bank. Tell
us if you think things will improve, worsen or stay the same in the West
Bank:

- Economic conditions such as poverty and unemployment in the West Bank
2.6% Very Good
44.5% Good
40.0% Bad
10.8% Very Bad
2.1% No Opinion/ Don't know

- Enforcement of law and order in the West Bank
4.6% Very Good
49.8% Good
33.2% Bad
9.1% Very Bad
3.3% No Opinion/ Don't know

- Status of democracy, particularly with regard to freedom of the press in
the West Bank
4.2% Very Good
46.6% Good
31.8% Bad
12.5% Very Bad
4.9% No Opinion/ Don't know

- Safety and security for you and your family in the West Bank
1) Very Good
2) Good
3) Bad
4) Very Bad
5) No Opinion/ Don't know

30)There is currently talk about conducting Palestinian-Israeli
negotiations with the aim of establishing a Palestinian state in the Gaza
Strip and about 80% to 90% of the West Bank to be followed by negations
between the Palestinian state and Israel on the remaining issues such as
permanent borders, refugees, holy places in Jerusalem, and others. Do you
support or oppose the participation of the Palestinian Authority in such
negotiations?
9.3% Strongly support
54.0% support
24.8% oppose
8.0% Strongly oppose
3.9% DK/NA

31)How would you evaluate the current status of democracy and human rights
in the Palestinian Authority under Abu Mazin? Would you say it is:
6.3% Very good
36.2% Good
19.4% neither bad nor good
22.6% Bad
11.8% Very bad
3.7% DK/NA

32)How would you evaluate the current status of democracy and human rights
in the Gaza Strip under Ismail Hanyieh government? Would you say it is:
6.0% Very good
21.8% Good
12.3% Fair
31.1% Bad
19.9% Very bad
8.9% DK/NA

33) According to the Saudi plan, Israel will retreat from all territories
occupied in 1967 including Gaza the West Bank, Jerusalem and the Golan
Heights, and a Palestinian state will be established. The refugees problem
will be resoved through negotiation in a just and agreed upon manner and in
accordance with UN resolution 194 which allows return of refugees to Israel
and compensation. In return, all Arab states will recognize Israel and its
right to secure borders, will sign peace treaties with her and establish
normal diplomatic relations. Do you agree or disagree to this plan?
7.9% Certainly agree
56.9% agree
23.3% disagree
8.7% Certainly disagree
3.2% DK/NA

34) If a peace agreement is reached, and a Palestinian state is
established and recognized by Israel, would you support or oppose the
efforts to reach full reconciliation between Israel and the Palestinian
state?
7.5% Would strongly support
61.7% Would support
21.3% Would oppose
7.2% Would strongly oppose
2.2% DK/NA

35) Now after the Annapolis meeting -- which was called for by the US and
attended by the PA, Israel, and several Arab states-has been concluded, how
do you assess its outcome? Has it succeeded or failed in pushing the peace
process forward?
1.2% Certainly it has succeeded
10.0% it has succeeded
20.9% it has not succeeded or failed
34.4% it has failed
24.2% certainly it has failed
9.3% DK/NA

36) And what are your expectations regarding the chances for the success or
failure of the negotiations launched by Annapolis conference? Will it
succeed or fail in ending Israeli occupation?
1.2% certainly will succeed
21.0% will succeed
47.5% will fail
22.0% certainly will fail
8.3% DK/NA

37) Is president Mahmud Abbas strong enough to be able to negotiate a
permanent settlement with the Israeli side including a permanent agreement
on borders, refugees and Jerusalem?
4.7% certainly yes
33.9% yes
41.2% no
16.2% certainly no
4.0% DK/NA

38) And if he succeeds in reaching a permanent agreement on all the issues,
does Abbas has the capacity to implement the agreement on the ground?
5.1% certainly yes
37.2% yes
38.8% no
13.0% certainly no
5.8% DK/NA

39)In your view, is it possible or impossible these days to reach a
compromise permanent status agreement with the Olmert government?
2.5% Certainly possible
29.2% Possible
43.7% Impossible
19.9% Certainly impossible
4.7% DK/NA

40) And if Olmert succeed in reaching a permanent agreement with the
Palestinian side, does he have the capacity to implement it on the ground?
3.6% certainly yes
27.5% yes
43.6% no
20.2% certainly no
5.1% DK/NA

41) The Joint Palestinian-Israeli statement issued during the Annapolis
conference stated that the two sides will engage in permanent status
negotiations aiming at reaching a peace treaty based on the establishment of
two states: the state of Palestine and the state of Israel. Do you approve
or disapprove of this goal?
5.0% certainly approve
53.1% approve
29.3% disapprove
8.9% certainly disapprove
3.7% DK/NA

42) The joint statement also stated that the two sides will seek to
conclude the permanent status negotiations before the end of 2008. Do you
think they will indeed succeed in achieving that on the period indicated?
1.3% certainly will succeed
21.8% will succeed
53.7% will not succeed
18.5% certainly will not succeed
4.7% DK/NA

43)When Palestinians and Israelis return to final status negotiations the
following items might be presented to negotiators as the elements of a
permanent compromise settlement. Tell us what you think of each item then
tell us what you think of all combined as one permanent status settlement
1. An Israeli withdrawal from all of the Gaza Strip and the evacuation of
its settlements. But in the West Bank, Israel withdraws and evacuates
settlements from most of it, with the exception of few settlement areas in
less than 3% of the West Bank that would be exchanged with an equal amount
of territory from Israel in accordance with the attached map {show map}.
2. An independent Palestinian state would be established in the areas from
which Israel withdraws in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip; the Palestinian
state will have no army, but it will have a strong security force but an
international multinational force would be deployed to insure the safety and
security of the state. Both sides will be committed to end all forms of
violence directed against each other.
3. East Jerusalem would become the capital of the Palestinian state with
Arab neighborhoods coming under Palestinian sovereignty and Jewish
neighborhoods coming under Israel sovereignty. The Old City (including al
Haram al Sharif) would come under Palestinian sovereignty with the exception
of the Jewish Quarter and the Wailing Wall that will come under Israeli
sovereignty.
4. With regard to the refugee question, both sides agree that the solution
will be based on UN resolutions 194 and 242 and on the Arab peace
initiative. The refugees will be given five choices for permanent residency.
These are: the Palestinian state and the Israeli areas transferred to the
Palestinian state in the territorial exchange mentioned above; no
restrictions would be imposed on refugee return to these two areas.
Residency in the other three areas (in host countries, third countries, and
Israel) would be subject to the decision of the states in those areas. The
number of refugees returning to Israel will be based on the average number
of refugees admitted to third countries like Australia, Canada, Europe, and
others. All refugees will be entitled to compensation for their
"refugeehood" and loss of properties.
5. When the permanent status agreement is fully implemented, it will mean
the end of the conflict and no further claims will be made by either side.
The parties will recognize Palestine and Israel as the homelands of their
respective peoples 6. The Palestinian state will have sovereignty over its
land, water, and airspace. But Israeli will be allowed to use the
Palestinian airspace for training purposes, and will maintain two early
warning stations in the West Bank for 15 years. The multinational force will
remain in the Palestinian state for an indefinite period of time and its
responsibility will be to insure the implementation of the agreement, and to
monitor territorial borders and coast of the Palestinian state including its
international border crossings.
Now that you have been informed of each element of the permanent compromise
settlement, tell us what you think of each of its item. Do you agree or
disagree with it.

43-1)Item #1: withdrawal to 1967 borders with territorial swap
4.6% Strongly agree
51.2% Agree
26.1% Disagree
15.7% Strongly Disagree
2.4% No Opinion /Don't Know

43-2)Item #2: a state without an army but with international forces
1.7% Strongly agree
21.0% Agree
47.9% Disagree
28.3% Strongly Disagree
1.1% No Opinion /Don't Know

43-3)Item #3: East Jerusalem as capital of the state of Palestine after it
is divided
2.2% Strongly agree
33.5% Agree
37.3% Disagree
25.7% Strongly Disagree
1.2% No Opinion /Don't Know

43-4)Item #4: refugees with five options for permanent residence
2.4% Strongly agree
37.0% Agree
36.3% Disagree
20.9% Strongly Disagree
3.3% No Opinion /Don't Know

43-5)Item #5: end of conflict

8.7% Strongly agree
57.4% Agree
18.0% Disagree
14.1% Strongly Disagree
1.8% No Opinion /Don't Know

43-6)Item #6: a sovereign state with security arrangements
6.1% Strongly agree
44.9% Agree
29.6% Disagree
17.3% Strongly Disagree
2.1% No Opinion /Don't Know

43-7)Item #7: the combined elements as one permanent status settlement
2.2% Strongly agree
45.2% Agree
32.1% Disagree
17.2% Strongly Disagree
3.3% No Opinion /Don't Know

44)And what is the Palestinian majority opinion on this combined package
for a permanent status settlement? Do most Palestinians in the West Bank
and Gaza support or oppose this combined final status package?
44.8% Majority supports
46.3% Majority opposes
8.9% DK/NA

45)And what is the Israeli majority opinion on this combined package for a
permanent status settlement? Do most Israelis support or oppose this
combined final status package?
36.1% Majority supports
53.2% Majority opposes
10.7% DK/NA

46)People's evaluations of the future chances of the peace process and the
armed struggle vary. For example, some believe that the peace process is a
failure and that only way to end the occupation is the resort to armed
attacks while others believe that armed attacks are responsible for the
failure of the peace process. What about you? Which of the following four
views you support:
21.1% the peace process is not successful in ending occupation and should
be stopped in favor of resort to armed action
35.8% the peace process should not be stopped because it still might
succeed, but at the same time armed action should continue
25.7% the peace process has not failed and should be given more time and in
the meanwhile armed action should be stopped
12.0% armed action is responsible for the stagnation of the peace process
and if it is stopped, the peace process would make progress
5.5% DK/NA

47)The US, Russia, the European Community and the UN, the so called
"Quartet", have put forward a "Roadmap" for the implementation of a final
settlement within 3 years. The plan includes political reforms in the
Palestinian Authority, including a constitution and election of a strong
Prime Minister, stopping the incitement and violence on both sides under the
Quartet's supervision, a freeze on settlements and the establishment of a
Palestinian State within provisional borders. The next phase will see
negotiations on the final borders under the auspices of an international
conference. Do you support or oppose this initiative?
3.3% Strongly support
46.3% Support
34.8% Oppose
11.1% Strongly oppose
4.6% Don't know/No answer

48) The joint Palestinian-Israeli statement issued by the Annapolis meeting
stated that the two sides will immediately start implementing their
commitments under the Road Map and that the US will be the monitor and
referee of the extent to which the two sides implement these commitments.
Are you confident the Israeli side will implement its commitment under the
Road Map?
1.7% certainly it will implement them
16.1% will implement them
52.3% will not implement them
26.2% certainly it will not implement them
3.7% DK/NA

49) And do you think the Palestinian side under Abu Mazin and Salam Fayyad's
government have the capacity to implement Palestinian commitments under the
Road Map?
6.9% Certainly have the capacity
45.1% have the capacity
34.3% does not have the capacity
9.2% certainly does not have the capacity
4.4% DK/NA

50)And are you confident that the Palestinian side will implement its
commitments under the Road Map if Israel implements its commitments?
14.5% certainly it will implement them
52.7% will implement them
22.7% will not implement them
6.0% certainly it will not implement them
4.1% DK/NA

51)Which of the following political parties do you support?
1.8% PPP
3.0% PFLP
36.2% Fateh
20.5% Hamas
0.6% DFLP
1.2% Islamic Jihad
1.3% National Initiative (Mubadara)
4.2% Independent Islamists
2.7% Independent Nationalists
28.0% None of the above
0.4% Other, specify

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