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Sunday, April 13, 2008
Poll on Jewish Public Opinion on Dividing Jerusalem (strong opposition)

In your opinion, what are the chances that any of the following would
occur, if and when a final status agreement is signed between Israel and the
Palestinians involving the transfer of Arab neighbourhoods, the Old City and
the Temple Mount to the Palestinians?
On a scale of 1-6 What are the chances of it happening.?

9. The Palestinians will no longer make demands upon Israel with respect to
Jerusalem: average score: 2.19
Very little chance 61% Moderate chance 18% High chance 12% Don't know and
other answers 9%

10. Palestinian terrorist acts against Israel will cease: average score:
1.88
Very little chance 69% Moderate chance 17% High chance 6% Don't know and
other answers 8%

12. That part of Jerusalem handed over to the Palestinians will serve as a
base for terrorist acts against Israel: average score: 4.52
Very little chance 14% Moderate chance 18% High chance 56% Don't know and
other answers 9%

SURVEY OF JEWISH PUBLIC OPINION ON DIVIDING JERUSALEM

FOR: BESA - THE BEGIN-SADAT CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
CONDUCTED BY:BRAINS' TRUST INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH AND CONSULTING
INSTITUTE LTD. (MAAGAR MOCHOT)
APRIL 2008

The poll was conducted as a telephone survey, between 19-27 March 2008, at
different hours, using a structured questionnaire among a random,
proportional sample of 510 respondents (aged 17 and higher) constituting a
representative sample of the adult Jewish population (aged 17 and higher) in
Israel. The maximum sampling error for the various estimates was 4.7% .
The survey was conducted by Brains' Trust (Maagar Mochot) -
Interdisciplinary Research and Consulting Institute Ltd., managed by Prof.
Yitzhak Katz - CEO, Prof. Baruch Mevorach - Scientific Manager and Dr. Amir
Horkin - Research Manager.

Results
NEGOTIATING JERUSALEM

2. In principle, are you in favour or against discussing the division of
Jerusalem in negotiating peace arrangements with the Palestinians?
62% 1. Against discussing Jerusalem's status
04% 2. Possibly, depending on the situation and various factors
29% 3. In favour of discussing Jerusalem's status
05% 4. Don't know and other answers

3. In your opinion, if the issue of dividing Jerusalem were to be debated in
negotiating peace arrangements with the Palestinians, would the Israeli
government have to hold a referendum before signing an agreement with the
Palestinians or not?
18% 1. No, it would not have to hold a referendum
03% 2. Possibly, depending on the agreement and various factors
71% 3. Yes, it would have to hold a referendum
08% 4. Don't know and other answers

4. In your opinion, should the opinion of the Diaspora Jews be taken into
account before signing any agreement pertaining to the future of Jerusalem?
48% 1. No, it should not be taken into account
09% 2. Possibly, depending on the agreement and various factors
38% 3. Yes, it should be taken into account
05% 4. Don't know and other answers

FINAL STATUS AGREEMENT

5. In return for a final status agreement with the Palestinians and a
declaration calling an end of the conflict with the Arab world, should
Israel agree or not, in principle, to divide Jerusalem between itself and
the Palestinians?
58% 1. It should not agree
05% 2. Possibly, depending on the agreement and various factors
29% 3. It should agree
08% 4. Don't know and other answers

[IMRA: It would also be interesting to find out of respondents have a clue
where the neighborhoods are that they are willing to hand over in terms of
proximity etc.]
6. In return for a final status agreement with the Palestinians and a
declaration calling an end of the conflict with the Arab world, should
Israel agree or not to hand over to the Palestinians only the Arab
neighbourhoods in Jerusalem, excluding the Old City and the Temple Mount?
38% 1. It should not agree
09% 2. Possibly, depending on the agreement and various factors
40% 3. It should agree
13% 4. Don't know and other answers

7. In return for a final status agreement with the Palestinians and a
declaration calling an end of the conflict with the Arab world, should
Israel agree or not to hand over to the Palestinians the Arab neighbourhoods
in Jerusalem, including the Old City and the Temple Mount?
71% 1. It should not agree
06% 2. Possibly, depending on the agreement and various factors
15% 3. It should agree
08% 4. Don't know and other answers

8. In your view, to what extent is it possible for Jerusalem to be the
capital of both Israel and the Palestinian state, should the latter come
into being?
45% 1. Definitely not possible
20% 2. Not possible
07% 3. Maybe
14% 4. Possible
06% 5. Definitely possible
08% 6. Don't know and other answers

9-14. In your opinion, what are the chances that any of the following would
occur, if and when a final status agreement is signed between Israel and the
Palestinians involving the transfer of Arab neighbourhoods, the Old City and
the Temple Mount to the Palestinians?
On a scale of 1-6 What are the chances of it happening.?

9. The Palestinians will no longer make demands upon Israel with respect to
Jerusalem: average score: 2.19
Very little chance 61% Moderate chance 18% High chance 12% Don't know and
other answers 9%

10. Palestinian terrorist acts against Israel will cease: average score:
1.88
Very little chance 69% Moderate chance 17% High chance 6% Don't know and
other answers 8%

11. The Palestinians will protect the places holy to all religions: average
score: 2.40
Very little chance 51% Moderate chance 27% High chance 11% Don't know and
other answers 11%

12. That part of Jerusalem handed over to the Palestinians will serve as a
base for terrorist acts against Israel: average score: 4.52
Very little chance 14% Moderate chance 18% High chance 56% Don't know and
other answers 9%

13. Most of the Israeli public will support such a final status agreement:
average score: 2.27
Very little chance 52% Moderate chance 29% High chance 3% Don't know and
other answers 16%

14. Opposition to the agreement will ignite violent clashes across the
country: average score: 4.28
Very little chance 13% Moderate chance 26% High chance 44% Don't know and
other answers 17%

1. For the purpose of the analysis, the categories "no chance whatsoever"
and 'very little chance" were grouped together.
2. For the purpose of the analysis, the categories "little chance" and
"moderate chance" were grouped together.
3. For the purpose of the analysis, the categories "likely" and "very
likely" were grouped together.

PERSONAL RESPONSE

15. What would be your personal response if and when a final status
agreement is signed between Israel and the Palestinians involving the
transfer of Arab neighbourhoods, the Old City and the Temple Mount to the
Palestinians?
03% 1. Indifferent, no particular response
21% 2. I would support the agreement
67% 3. I would oppose the agreement
09% 4. Don't know and other answers

16. Of those who oppose(N=342) : How do you think you would you manifest
your opposition to such an agreement? (Several answers allowed)
20% 1. I would speak my mind in conversations and gatherings with family and
friends
42% 2. By voting in elections or a referendum
22% 3. Participation in demonstrations and rallies, without any violence
10% 4. Participation in demonstrations and rallies, including violence
04% 5. Some other way
02% 6. Don't know, no comment and other answers

17. In your opinion, is the division of Jerusalem currently being negotiated
or not between representatives of the Israeli government and the
Palestinians, despite denials on the Israeli side?
23% 1. Not under negotiation
59% 2. Yes, under negotiation
18% 3. Don't know and other answers

18. In your opinion, would the Shas movement withdraw or not from the
government, if it turned out that Israel is negotiating the future of
Jerusalem with the Palestinians?
Total Sample
35% 1. It would not withdraw
38% 2. It would withdraw
27% 3. Don't know and other answers

Among Shas voters in the 2006 elections (N=40)
35% 1. It would not withdraw
38% 2. It would withdraw
27% 3. Don't know and other answers

BACKGROUND DESCRIPTORS

1. How do you define yourself in terms of religion? (Q-19)
1. Secular Jew 55%
2. Traditional Jew 25%
3. National-religious Jew 7%
4. Ultra-orthodox Jew 13%

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