Dahaf poll: 59% Olmert should resign, Kadima largest party if headed by
Livni
Dr. Aaron Lerner 12 May 2008

The result that Kadima remains the largest party if headed by Livni cuts
both ways:
- on the one hand it makes it more tempting to dump Olmert.
- on the other hand, if one thinks that this support for Livni is stable,
there is no reason for Kadima to rush to do anything since the disgust of
the Israeli public is apparently for Olmert rather than Kadima.

This may explain why Livni has opted to distance herself from Olmert for the
time being so that should and when he has to leave she has such an
overwhelming support in the polls that Kadima will have no choice but choose
here as Olmert's replacement.

Dahaf poll of 500 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) conducted
apparently on 11 May 2008 for Yediot Ahronot.
Statistical error +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Should Olmert continue in his position or resign or take a leave of absence?
Resign 59% Remain 33% No reply 8%

Do you believe that Olmert did not pocket some of the money?
Believe didn't 22% Do not believe didn't 60%

Is Olmert able to lead diplomatic/state processes despite the investigation
against him?
No 60% Yes 38% No reply 2%

There are those who claim that the police and the prosecution and State
Comptroller are picking on Olmert. Do you agree?
Yes 26% No 70% No reply 4%

Who is most appropriate to be prime minister?
Netanyahu 37% Barak 20% Olmert 10%

If Olmert resigns who is the most appropriate to take his place as head of
Kadima?
Livni 41% Mofaz 16% Dichter 13% Shitreet 8% None of them/no reply 22%

If elections were held today how would you vote (expressed in mandates - no
indication how many were undecided)
Actual Knesset today in [brackets]

Option #1 Kadima headed by Olmert
28 [12] Likud
19 [19] Labor
12 [29] Kadima headed by Olmert
10 [12] Shas
08 [05] Meretz
08 [11] Yisrael Beteinu
08 [09] Nat'l Union/NRP
03 [00] Social Justice (Gaydamak Party)
[results for Arab parties, Yahadut Hatorah and Retirees Party not reported]

Option #2 Kadima headed by Livni
23 [12] Likud
15 [19] Labor
27 [29] Kadima headed by Livni
10 [12] Shas
08 [05] Meretz
08 [11] Yisrael Beteinu
08 [09] Nat'l Union/NRP
03 [00] Social Justice (Gaydamak Party)
[results for Arab parties, Yahadut Hatorah and Retirees Party not reported]

Option #3 Kadima headed by Mofaz
26 [12] Likud
19 [19] Labor
17 [29] Kadima headed by Mofaz
10 [12] Shas
08 [05] Meretz
08 [11] Yisrael Beteinu
08 [09] Nat'l Union/NRP
02 [00] Social Justice (Gaydamak Party)
[results for Arab parties, Yahadut Hatorah and Retirees Party not reported]

Option #4 Kadima headed by Shitreet
28 [12] Likud
18 [19] Labor
13 [29] Kadima headed by Shitreet
10 [12] Shas
08 [05] Meretz
08 [11] Yisrael Beteinu
08 [09] Nat'l Union/NRP
03 [00] Social Justice (Gaydamak Party)
[results for Arab parties, Yahadut Hatorah and Retirees Party not reported]

Published in Yediot Ahronot on 12 May 2008