Weekly Commentary: The Golan, logic, and the Turkish precedent

Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 22 May 2008

"I do not know how to work out a security arrangement if Israel actually
withdraws from the Golan Heights. To the best of my knowledge there is no
solution to this. And in the absence of a solution to this matter, we could
find ourselves in the situation that you are basing yourself only on the
good will of the other side. And in the Middle East, with the kind of
regime of Bashar Assad, and also with the problematic nature of that
regime - that it could be replaced by a Sunni regime within a relatively
short period of time, you are taking an unreasonable level of risk (AL:
leaving the Golan)
Gen. (ret) Giora Eiland, former head of Israel's National Security Council -
Israel Radio interview - Evening news magazine 22 May 2008

Unfortunately, Eiland has many former colleagues who suggest doing just
that.

"The support of Israel's defense establishment of the talks with Syria is
based on the ...view that when Assad gives his word he keeps it."
Haaretz correspondent Amos Harel 22 May 2008

Simply put, elites in the defense establishment support a deal with Syria on
the basis of reasoning that has absolutely nothing to do with their area of
expertise.

Many of these same people seriously erred in previous predictions regarding
developments in the region in general and Syria in particular. But that
doesn't stop them from religiously supporting withdrawal from the Golan.

Many of them were convinced, for example, that Syria's billions of dollars
of unpaid bills to the Russian arms industry would prevent them from
acquiring any substantial or significant new weapons systems for the
foreseeable future. Oops. They were dead wrong.

Many of them cited various and sundry gizmos that could take the place of
the Golan. Gizmos that have since been addressed by other gizmos.

And of course, many of them assumed absolute best case scenarios when
considering how post withdrawal security arrangements would play out in the
event of an emergency. If nothing else, the Second Lebanon War sent an
expensive reminder that reality rarely is the best case scenario.

Is a peace treaty impossible without leaving the Golan?
Interestingly, the very same country acting as go between in the
Syria-Israel talks, proved back at the end of 2004 that it is indeed
possible for Syria to forego what it considers to be sovereign Syrian
territory.
As Channel 2's analyst for Arab affairs, Ehud Ya'ari, asked Turkish Foreign
Minister Abdullah Gul at a Jerusalem press conference in early January
20005: "Can Syria's recognition last month of full Turkish sovereignty over
the Hatay province (AL: aka Alexandretta) be seen as a precedent for the
case of the Golan Heights?"
Indeed.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il