Weekly Commentary: Seven short ideas about the ceasefire

Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 19 June 2008

Let's hope that the Arabs are stupid enough to break the ceasefire soon.

Half a year ago we faced a major diplomatic crisis with Egypt when we
complained about their gross failure to stop the smuggling. In the end we
basically backed down. Why will this time be any different?

It is extremely dangerous for our neighbors to think we are stupid or gun
shy to the point of paralysis. The ceasefire arrangement and the arguments
being made to justify it are proof positive of both.

It is important to take into account that the military development program
in the Gaza Strip is being directed by Iranian experts. This means not only
a rapidly accelerated Gaza weapons industry (not prohibited by the
ceasefire) but also sophisticated tactics, military construction and
professionally run training programs so that the Hamas army can reach a self
sustained critical mass possessing the military skills needed to carry out
their war against the Jewish State considerably more effectively.

The danger of a stronger Gaza army is not just what it can do in isolation
but how it can function in concert with other enemy forces in a crisis.

Expect Israel to be pressed to make additional concessions to Mahmoud Abbas
to compensate him for his loss of status because of the Gaza ceasefire.

Are Israeli security officials - in coordination with the lawyers - working
on the last touches of a "shock and awe" operation to follow the failure of
the ceasefire?

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il