Three polls show Livni heading Kadima 20-26 seats vs 25-33 Likud
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 1 August 2008

[1] Dialog poll for Haaretz - 503 Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) 31 July
2008
Actual Knesset today in [brackets] published in Haaretz on 1 August.

[2] Dahaf poll for Yediot Ahronot - 400 Israelis (including Israeli Arabs)
31 July 2008
Actual Knesset today in [brackets] published in Yediot Ahronot on 1 August.

[3] TNS poll for Maariv - Israeli Jews - 31 July 2008 - samples size not
identified (previous TNS surveys added survey of Arabs for the Knesset vote
question]
published in Maariv on 1 August.

[1] [2] [3]
26 29 20 [29] Kadima headed by Livni
14 14 17 [19] Labor
25 30 33 [12] Likud
11 10 09 [12] Shas
11 08 12 [11] Yisrael Beteinu
06 06 06 [09] Nat'l Union/NRP
07 06 04 [06] Yahadut Hatorah
05 05 04 [05] Meretz
02 ** ** [00] Green Party
02 02 05 [00] Social Justice (Gaydamak Party)
** ** ** [07] Retirees Party
11 10 10 [10] Arab parties
** does not get minimum votes for Knesset representation

[1] [2] [3]
19 17 16 [29] Kadima headed by Mofaz
17 18 20 [19] Labor
29 33 33 [12] Likud
11 10 09 [12] Shas
11 08 13 [11] Yisrael Beteinu
06 06 06 [09] Nat'l Union/NRP
07 06 04 [06] Yahadut Hatorah
05 06 05 [05] Meretz
02 03 ** [00] Green Party
02 03 04 [00] Social Justice (Gaydamak Party)
** ** ** [07] Retirees Party
11 10 10 [10] Arab parties
** does not get minimum votes for Knesset representation

Who do you want heading Kadima
National poll [1] : Livni 34% Mofaz 16% Dichter 8% Shetreet 4% Other replies
38%

Who of the following candidates can bring the most votes for the party?
National poll [3] : Livni 48.1% Mofaz 34.2% Both same 1.9% Neither 7.0%

Who of the following candidates can bring the most votes for the party?
National poll [3] : Barak 43.2% Ayalon 17.5% Herzog 11.2% Same 1.4% None
11.7%

Of the following who is most appropriate to be prime minister?
National poll [1]: Netanyahu 29% Livni 22% Barak 8% Mofaz 8% None 29% All
same 4%

National poll [2] - Group 1: Netanyahu 38% Mofaz 15% Barak 17%
National poll [3] - Group 1: Netanyahu 39.5% Mofaz 14.8% Barak 19.7%

National poll [2] - Group 2: Netanyahu 36% Livni 30% Barak 15%
National poll [3] - Group 2: Netanyahu 38.5% Livni 24.4% Barak 14.9%

What feeling did you have when you watched or heard the prime minister's
resignation announcement?
National poll [1]: Sorrow/identification 14% Apathy 13% Joy/relief 38%
Other 17%
National poll [2]: Sorrow/identification 22% Apathy 22% Joy/relief 50%

How did Olmert perform as a prime minister?
National poll [2]: Bad 65% Good 35%

How did Olmert's resignation effect his image?
National poll [3] - Improved 27.2% No effect 56.5% Hurts 10.8%

Last night the prime minister gave a speech in which he announced he would
resign immediately after the Kadima primaries on 17 September.Was he right
to resign?
National poll [3] - Yes 91.2% Made mistake 8.8%

What would you prefer happening after the Kadima primaries?
National poll [2]: New government with same Knesset 28% Early elections 66%

Does Ehud Olmert have the legitimacy or authority to lead diplomatic
negotiations as long as he serves as prime minister?
National poll [3] - Yes 44.2% No 55.8%

[2a] Dahaf poll for Yediot Ahronot - 500 registered Kadima members
apparently on 31 July 2008

Who will you vote for to head Kadima?
Kadima members [2a]: Mofaz 32% Livni 41% Dichter 13% Shetreet 10%

And if only Mofaz and Livni run?
Kadima members [2a]: Mofaz 43% Livni 51%

Who is most trustworthy?

Kadima members [2a]: Mofaz 30% Livni 49% Both same 17%

What is the most important quality for a party leader?
Kadima members [2a]: Integrity 55% Security experience 28% Ability to form
government with current Knesset 8% Public popularity and chances to win
elections 9%

Who can form a new government with the current Knesset, namely without
elections?
Kadima members [2a]: Mofaz 44% Livni 47% Both same 5%

If elections are held, who can get more votes for Kadima and be elected
prime minister (AL: there are not direct elections)
Kadima members [2a]: Mofaz 37% Livni 55% Both same 5%

How did Olmert perform as prime minister?
Kadima members [2a]: Good 62% Bad 37%

What feeling did you have when you watched or heard the prime minister's
resignation announcement?
Kadima members [2a]: Sorrow 19% Identification 23% Apathy 29% Joy 21%

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il