Poll commissioned by Geneva Initiative finds most Israelis don't believe
Israel faces demographic threat
Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA 19 August 2008:
Poll question:
There are those who claim that in a situation with no significant progress,
Israel could turn into a binational state, meaning that the Palestinians
would relinquish their demand for a state and instead demand to live in
Israel as citizens. In such a situation, two nations would live within the
borders of Israel. In your opinion, could a situation like this come about
or not?
Could come about 26%
Could not come about 71%
Undecided 3%
Oops!
Only 26% of Israelis polled think that if there is no "significant progress"
(aka no more Israeli withdrawals) that Israel will turn into a binational
state - aka the "demographic threat".
The demographic threat is the argument of last resort being used to justify
withdrawals since the argument that withdrawals lead to peace is a very hard
sell after the Oslo farce.
Now what do you do with the results? After all, the foreign governments and
other foreign entities bankrolling the Geneva Initiative aren't going to be
pleased with that.
So here is how the story is presented on their website:
Israeli Poll shows dramatic increase in public support for International
involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process
Date: 13.08.08
http://www.geneva-accord.org/General.aspx?docID=3104&FolderID=45&lang=en
Poll, held in late July, shows a dramatic rise in the Israeli public's
support for international involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,
with 73% supporting increased U.S. involvement and 58% supporting increased
European involvement. The poll also shows 75% of Israelis believe the
current situation with no political progress is bad for Israel, half support
the principles of the Geneva Accord, and one third still believe Olmert has
the legitimacy to advance the political process.
August 2008
MarketWatch Israeli Public Opinion Poll:
The Sample:
The survey was held among a representative sample of 600 respondents across
Israel, ages 18 and up (including new immigrant and Arab sectors,
proportionally to their percentage in the population).
MarketWatch Research conducted the survey by phone, using a computerized
polling system.
The survey was held on July 25th-25th, 2008.
The margin of error for a sample of 600 is 4.0%+/-
Findings
Are you for or against Israel conducting final status negotiations with the
Palestinians? / conducting negotiations with Mahmoud Abbas?
For 60%
Against 35%
Undecided 5%
Are you for or against Israel conducting negotiations with Hamas?
For 43%
Against 55%
Undecided 3%
In your opinion, is Mahmoud Abbas a partner who should not be missed, or
would it be better to wait for the next leader?
Should not be missed 47%
Wait for the next leader 35%
Undecided 17%
In your opinion, does Ehud Olmert have the legitimacy to advance
negotiations now, or would it be better to wait for the next leader?
Has the legitimacy 34%
Wait for the next leader 59%
Undecided 7%
Do you or do you not believe a permanent status agreement can be reached
with the Palestinians to end the conflict?
Believe 34%
Don't believe 62%
Undecided 4%
[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA: "A demilitarized Palestinian state and the
establishment of comprehensive security arrangements to protect Israel"
- if the folks are the Geneva Initiative wanted to honestly follow through
on this (at the risk of annoying some of the foreign governmetns who have
helped to bankroll the project) they would ask if it is reasonable to expect
that, in practice, it is possible to create a "demilitarized Palestinian
state" and truly "comprehensive security arrangements to protect Israel".
But hey - grow up - the real name of the game is coming up with some
framework for withdrawals - all this verbiage is just window dressing.]
Would you support or oppose an agreement with the following articles (the
Geneva Accord):
An almost complete withdrawal to the' 67 borders, excluding some settlement
blocks, in return for which uninhabited areas will be handed over
Jewish neighborhoods in East Jerusalem will be under Israeli sovereignty and
Arab neighborhoods under Palestinian Sovereignty
The Jewish Quarter and the Wailing Wall in Jerusalem will be under Israeli
sovereignty, the Temple Mount and Arab quarters in the Old City under
Palestinian sovereignty
A demilitarized Palestinian state and the establishment of comprehensive
security arrangements to protect Israel
The return of refugees to the Palestinian state and the limited admission of
refugees into Israel based on Israel's exclusive judgment
A mutual announcement by Israel and the Palestinians on the end of conflict
and end of all claims
Support 49%
Oppose 37%
Undecided 13%
Should the current situation continue with no political progress opposite
the Palestinians, would it be good or bad for Israel in your opinion?
Good for Israel 19%
Bad for Israel 74%
Undecided 7%
Should Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas form a Palestinian unity government, would
this increase, decrease, or have no effect on the chances of arriving at an
agreement with the Palestinian?
Increase 27%
Decrease 30%
Have no effect 35%
Undecided 8%
If the current situation were to continue with no significant political
progress, what do you think would happen?
Terrorism and acts of violence would increase
56%
There would be no change in the levels of terrorism and violence 31%
Terrorism and acts of violence would decrease
7%
Undecided
7%
If the current situation were to continue with no significant political
progress, what do you think would happen in the balance of power between
Hamas and Fatah?
Hamas would take over the West Bank
37%
There would be no change - Hamas would rule in Gaza and Fatah in the W. Bank
33%
Fatah and Abbas would regain control of Gaza
10%
Undecided
20%
There are those who claim that in a situation with no significant progress,
Israel could turn into a binational state, meaning that the Palestinians
would relinquish their demand for a state and instead demand to live in
Israel as citizens. In such a situation, two nations would live within the
borders of Israel. In your opinion, could a situation like this come about
or not?
Could come about 26%
Could not come about 71%
Undecided 3%
Which situation do you view as preferable?
The establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, meaning two
states for two peoples 74%
The establishment of a binational state, meaning one state for two peoples
14%
Neither 9%
Undecided 3%
Do you support or oppose increasing U.S. involvement in the
Israeli-Palestinian process?
August 05 July 08
Support 47% 73%
Oppose 45% 23%
Undecided 8% 4%
Support for increased U.S. involvement according to intended vote:
Meretz
Support 85%
Oppose 15%
Undecided 0%
Labor
Support 96%
Oppose 3%
Undecided 1%
Kadima
Support 91%
Oppose 9%
Undecided 0%
Likud
Support 75%
Oppose 18%
Undecided 6%
National Religious Party
Support 61%
Oppose 27%
Undecided 12%
Shas
Support 47%
Oppose 54%
Undecided 0%
Do you support or oppose increasing European involvement in the
Israeli-Palestinian process?
January 07 July 08
Support 40% 58%
Oppose 53% 37%
Undecided 7% 5%
Support for increased European involvement according to intended vote:
Meretz
Support 73%
Oppose 11%
Undecided 16%
Labor
Support 97%
Oppose 10%
Undecided 3%
Kadima
Support 87%
Oppose 12%
Undecided 1%
Likud
Support 53%
Oppose 43%
Undecided 4%
National Religious Party
Support 25%
Oppose 70%
Undecided 5%
Shas
Support 54%
Oppose 40%
Undecided 6%
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