PSR Poll # 29 press release ( 28-30 August 2008)

1 September 2008
PRESS RELEASE
Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (29)
While the gap between Mahmud Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh widens in favor of the
former, and while the overwhelming majority opposes Hamas's military action
in Shijaiah in the Gaza Strip, almost two-thirds believe that Abbas's term
in office expires in January 2009 rather than January 2010
28-30 August 2008
These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center
for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip
between 28 and 30 August 2008. This period witnessed a relative
consolidation of the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip
and the release by Israel of about 200 Palestinian prisoners as a gesture to
President Mahmud Abbas. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed
face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%. This
press release cover domestic Palestinian issues; issues related to the peace
process and Israeli-Palestinian relations will be covered in a separate
joint Palestinian-Israeli press release. For further details, contact PSR
director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email
pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

Main Findings:
Findings of the third quarter of 2008 indicate continued slow decline in
Hamas's popularity while Fateh's popularity remains stable as it was during
the second quarter. Similarly, findings show a slightly wider gap between
the popularity of President Abbas compared to that of Ismail Haniyeh in
favor of the former. Positive evaluation of the conditions of Palestinians
in the West Bank remains higher than that of conditions in the Gaza Strip.
This applies to overall conditions as well as those of democracy and human
rights. Findings show also significant opposition to Hamas's military entry
into Shijaiah in the Gaza Strip in early August. They also show widespread
belief that the term of President Abbas ends in the first month of January
2009, as Hamas claims, and not in the first month of 2010, as the presidency
claims.
It was expected that the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel would lead to
improvement in Hamas's standing among the public. But the fact that Hamas
continues to lose public support might be due to strong opposition to its
behavior in dealing with Shijaiah incident which led to several deaths and
the escape of several members of the Hillis family to Israel. Moreover, the
fact that the Rafah crossing remained closed since the ceasefire and that
the other crossings were only partially opened might have weakened Hamas's
appeal. On the other hand, findings show an improvement in the perception of
security and safety in the West Bank which might have been responsible in
part for the improvement in Abbas's standing. Moreover, Israel's release of
about 200 Palestinian prisoners at the end of August might have also played
in Abbas's favor.
The Gap between the standing of PA President Mahmud Abbas and Hamas's Prime
Minister Ismail Haniyeh has increased to 14 percentage points in favor of
Abbas. If new presidential elections are held today, and the only two
candidates were Abbas and Haniyeh, the former would receive the support of
53% and the latter 39%. This finding represents a slight increase in the
popularity of Abbas which stood at 52% last June compared to 40% for
Haniyeh. Haniyeh's popularity reached its peak last March, in the aftermath
of the breaching of the Rafah border, when it stood at 47% compared to 46%
for Abbas. If the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Haniyeh, the
former would receive 61% to Haniyeh's 34%. Level of non-participation in the
presidential elections would reach 37% if the competition was between Abbas
and Haniyeh and 27% if the competition was between Barghouti and Haniyeh.
Moreover, the gap between Fateh and Hamas increases from 12 percentage
points last June to 14 percentage points in this poll. If new parliamentary
elections are to take place today, Hamas would receive 29% (compared to 31%
last June) and Fateh would receive 43% (same as in June). Percentage of
those who would vote for other factions and parties stands today at 11% and
the undecided at 16%.
Satisfaction with the performance of Abbas increases slightly from 46% last
June to 48% in this poll. Level of dissatisfaction reaches 47% today.
Positive evaluation of the performance of the government of Salam Fayyad
remains as it was last June standing at 34% and the negative evaluation at
34%. Similarly, positive evaluation of Haniyeh's government stands today at
34% and negative evaluation at 39%. Last June, positive evaluation of
Haniyeh's government stood at 37% and negative evaluation at 35%. Today, 33%
say Fayyad's government is the legitimate one while 27% say Haniyeh's
government is the legitimate one. Last June, belief in the legitimacy of the
Fayyad government reached 31% compared to 29% for Haniyeh's. Last March,
Haniyeh's government was perceived as legitimate by 34%.
Perception of personal and family security and safety increases in the West
Bank from 40% last June to 43% in this poll. But the percentage of personal
and family security and safety in the Gaza Strip is higher than in the West
Bank as it reaches 54% (compared to 49% in Gaza last June).
By contrast, positive evaluation of the overall conditions of Palestinians
in the West Bank is higher than in the Gaza Strip, with only 8% describing
conditions on the Gaza Strip as good or very good and 27% describing the
same conditions in the West Bank and good or very good. Last June, positive
evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip stood at 5% compared to 25% in
the West Bank.
Similarly, 34% give a positive evaluation of the status of democracy in the
West Bank while only 24% describe the same conditions in the Gaza Strip as
good or very good.
An overwhelming majority (69%) opposes Hamas's armed entry into the
Shijaiah neighborhood in the Gaza Strip (an event that led to several deaths
and the escape of several members of Hillis family to Israel) while only 20%
support it. Support for Hamas's action increases in the Gaza Strip, reaching
35% compared to 12% in the West Bank. The wide gap in support between the
two areas might reflect a greater Hamas media influence in Gaza Strip
compared to the West Bank. Indeed, our findings show that 21% in the Gaza
Strip watch Hamas's satellite TV station, al Aqsa, compared to only 6% in
the West Bank.
23% believe that Fateh is responsible for the Gaza explosion that led to the
death of five Hamas members last June while 43% believe it was not
responsible; 33% say they do not know.
A majority of 63% believes that Abbas term as president ends in January
2009, as Hamas claims (i.e., four years after he was elected), while only
23% believe that his term extends to five years ending in January 2010, as
the presidency claims.

This PSR survey was conducted with the support of the Konrad Adenauer
Stiftung in Ramallah
End of press release