Swords and Shields: Russia shields Syria
by Ariel Cohen
Washington (UPI) Oct 16, 2008
www.spacewar.com/reports/Swords_and_Shields_Russia_shields_Syria_999.html

Until Russia can revitalize its naval forces to a much larger degree, its
deployments to the Mediterranean contribute more to symbolic and diplomatic
activity than being a viable military counterweight to NATO in the region.
Yet the Black Sea Fleet in the Med is a significant show of force and a
diplomatic irritant and a potential threat to shipping in the Suez Canal and
to America's ally Israel.

The increased Russian naval presence in the region means that the Kremlin is
seeking to cultivate Syria as a close regional ally, and is looking to
secure additional bases for the Black Sea Fleet besides its current base in
the Black Sea port of Sevastopol.

In addition, Russia would also be able to deploy electronic
intelligence-gathering ships that could then improve its monitoring
capabilities against NATO forces and Syria's ability to monitor NATO and
Israeli transmissions, expanding the previous naval intelligence engagement
during the Balkan wars.

Finally, Russian naval forces could deter or disrupt Israeli naval or air
assets deployed in wartime against Syria or Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Syria is pursuing new arms deals with Russia, including the purchase of the
Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-29 M2, MiG-31, the latest Sukhoi Su-30 version --
Flanker, Tor-M1 air defense systems, AT-14 antitank missiles, upgrades for
Syria's aging T-62, T-72 and T-80 Main Battle Tanks, SA-5 Gammon
anti-aircraft missile systems, and upgrading Syria's existing S-125 Air
Defense systems to the Pechora-2A.

Iran is also involved in supporting Damascus. In 2007 alone Iran reportedly
financed Syrian purchases of Russian arms to the tune of $1 billion. Iran
and Syria, which have had a mutual defense treaty since 2004, train and
equip Hezbollah, the biggest terrorist organization in the Middle East.
Russia is cultivating both states as allies and as customers for Russian
arms.

What is particularly disturbing is that the Russian layered air defenses,
both short-range TOR and long-range S-300 anti-aircraft systems, are capable
of providing the defensive envelope to the mysterious Syrian nuclear
research activities, as well as to the significant chemical weapons arsenal
deliverable by Damascus' short-range ballistic missiles, such as
Syrian-produced SCUD-C and SCUD-D and, potentially, Russian-made
Iskander-E -- NATO designation SS-X-26.

Damascus has also acquired Pantsir-C1 air defense systems, which represent
the current state of the art in Russian military air defense technology, but
no deal has yet been reached. According to sources in Moscow, Russia is
likely to equip Syria's Tartus naval base with S-300PMU-2 Favorit ballistic
missiles and a radar system more sophisticated than Syria's current
capabilities.

During the Cold War era, the Soviet Union boasted a global naval power
projection capability with yearly naval maneuvers in the Caribbean and the
North Fleet naval brigade in Conakry, Guinea, and Luanda, Angola.

The 8th Operational Squadron of the Pacific Fleet had supply bases in Aden
and Socotra in Yemen and Dahlak in Eritrea, and in Berbera in Somalia. After
the five-day Aug. 8-Aug. 12 war in the former Soviet republic of Georgia in
the Caucasus, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is planning to deploy in Abkhazia,
at the ports of Ochamchira and Sukhumi.

For Moscow today, Tartus is only the first step in the long road to a
renewed global naval presence.
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a Washington author and expert on geopolitics and energy security. Lajos
Szaszdi, Ph.D., and Nicholas Lippolis contributed to this article.)