[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA:

The puzzle: if Israelis overwhelmingly understand that "In reality, most of
the Palestinians do not accept the existence of the State of Israel and
would destroy it if they could" why do the majority of Israelis still tell
pollsters they support Palestinian state?

Answer #1: It is PC to support a Palestinian state and they want to say the
right thing to the pollster on the phone.
.
Answer #2: They say they suport a Palestinian state but have in mind that it
is subject to conditions that are so far beyond anything on the table that
it is support for the record and nothing more.

Answer #3: They support a Palestinian state for secondary or tertiary
reasons (for example, to please America).

Answer #4: Why analyze the answers assuming that Israelis have a long enough
attention span to consider both ideas at the same time?]

Poll: Netanyahu most likely to advance peace
War and Peace Index shows 31% of Kadima voters believe Netanyahu can promote
peace while safeguarding Israel's interests. Most Israelis support
establishment of Palestinian state
Ynet Published: 12.07.08, 18:54 / Israel News
www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3634801,00.html

Which government will succeed in advancing the peace process while
safeguarding Israel's interests in the context of negotiations with the
different Arab actors? According to the War and Peace Index published on
Ynet, 35% of the public said a Netanyahu-led government was best fit for the
job.

A government headed by Kadima Chairwoman Tzipi Livni got the vote of 25% of
the public, while only 6% opted for a Barak-headed government as the one
that would best succeed in fulfilling this task.

Among the rest, 15% said all the possibilities were "the same" in their eyes
and 20% responded that they did not know or had no clear position on the
matter.

The researchers that conducted the poll said that despite the economic
situation, foreign and defense issues continued to determine which party the
Israeli Jewish public will decide to vote for.

A segmentation of the answers to this question revealed that Likud Chairman
Benjamin Netanyahu has a clear advantage among voters for Likud (65%), Shas
(71%), Yisrael Beiteinu (65%), the National Religious Party (44%), and Torah
Judaism (42%). In addition, he has not inconsiderable support (31%) among
Kadima voters.

Tzipi Livni mainly has support from voters for Kadima (41%), Labor (40%),
Meretz (65%), and the Pensioners (50%).

As for Labor Chairman Ehud Barak, even in his own party his rate of support
is no higher than 19%, primarily because of the "defection" of Labor voters
to Kadima (as noted, 40%). It should be emphasized, though, that the survey
was conducted two days before the Labor Party's internal elections and the
list that was elected could change this picture.

58% support Palestinian state

The index further showed a solid majority among the Jewish public of 58%
(vs. 36%) who support the establishment of an independent Palestinian state,
and a slightly larger majority (61% vs. 35%) who see the Palestinians' claim
to an independent state of their own as justified.

Moreover, a clear majority, though a bit smaller - 53% compared to 38% -
also say that in the framework of a peace agreement with the Palestinians,
Israel could allow itself to agree to an independent Palestinian state's
creation.

This structure of positions among the Jewish public is important and
interesting in light of the widespread suspicion of the Palestinians'
intentions.

About two-thirds (63%) expressed agreement with the statement that "In
reality, most of the Palestinians do not accept the existence of the State
of Israel and would destroy it if they could, despite the fact that the PLO
leadership is conducting peace negotiations with Israel." Only 20% disagreed
with the claim.

A segmentation of the answers to this question with the question on personal
support or opposition to establishing an independent Palestinian state
reveals, as expected, that among those who agree that the Palestinians would
eradicate Israel if they could, the rate of those favoring a Palestinian
state is lower than among those who disagree with that claim.

Most of the Jewish public is prepared to accept the idea of an independent
Palestinian state while, at the same time, assuming that the Palestinians'
intentions toward Israel are not to accept its existence but rather to
destroy it.

The survey also showed that the public is split almost exactly down the
middle - 46% on each side -regarding the rightness of the statement that any
government that is formed after the elections will eventually reach a final
settlement with the Palestinians.

On the other hand, a 57% majority was found who disagree with the statement
that any government that is formed after the elections will eventually agree
to a compromise with the Palestinians on the issue of Jerusalem.

The War and Peace Index is funded by the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace
Research and the Evens Program in Mediation and Conflict Resolution of Tel
Aviv University. The telephone interviews were conducted by the B. I. Cohen
Institute of Tel Aviv University on 1-3 December 2008 and included 598
interviewees who represent the adult population of Israel (including the
territories and the kibbutzim). The sampling error for a sample of this size
is 4.5%.