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Friday, December 26, 2008
7 Polls: Likud 30-36, Kadima 23-26, Labor 11-14; Don't believe Netanyahu won't leave the Golan: 61%:35%

6 Polls: Likud 29-36, Kadima 23-30, Labor 11-14
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date 26 December 2008

Poll #1 Telephone poll of a representative sample of adult Israelis
(including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Midgam Israel Television Channel 1
24 December 2008

Poll #2 Telephone poll of a representative sample of adult Israelis
(including Arab Israelis) carried out by Shvakim Panorama for Israel Radio's
Hakol Diburim
(It's All Talk) 24 December 2008

Poll #3 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 525 adult Israelis
(including Arab Israelis) by Dahaf on 24 December and published in Yediot
Ahronot on 25 December 2008.

Poll #4 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 475 adult Israelis
(including Arab Israelis) by Dialogue on 23 December and published in
Haaretz on 25 December 2008 (27% undecided).

Poll #5 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 511 adult Israelis
(including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute
(headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Television Channel 2 "Mishal
Cham" program 23 December 2008
[19% undecided/other replies .]

Poll #6 Telephone poll of a representative sample of over 800 adult Israelis
(including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Teleseker for Maariv and published
in Maariv on 26 December without any indication as to when the poll was
carried out. the results appeared in the front section of the paper The
results are notably different than any of the other polls.regarding Kadima.
The results also only add up to 119 seats instead of 120 seats.

Poll #7 Telephone poll of a representative sample of over adult Israelis
including Israeli Arab carried out by Geocartography on 24 December for
Radius Radio FM 100 (as reported by Nana10.co.il - note all results
reported).

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7
25 23 26 26 25 30 23 [29] Kadima headed by Livni
11 14 12 11 11 11 09 [19] Labor
31 32 30 30 31 29 35-36 [12] Likud
10 12 10 13 12 10 09 [12] Shas
12 12 12 11 13 12 11 [11] Yisrael Beteinu
05 04 05 06 05 03 ?? [09] "Jewish Home" (previously Nat'l Union/NRP)
07 07 06 05 05 05 ?? [06] Yahadut Hatorah
06 06 07 08 06 07 10 [05] Meretz
03 00 03 00 01 00 03 [00] Green Party
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 [00] Social Justice (Gaydamak Party)
00 00 00 02 02 02 00 [07] Retirees Party
10 10 09 08 09 10 ?? [10] Arab parties
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 [00] Meimad
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 [00] Strong Israel (Efraim Sneh)
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 [00] Hatikvah (Eldad)

Additional poll results from Poll #3 Telephone poll of a representative
sample of 525 adult Israelis (including Arab Israelis) by Dahaf on 24
December and published in Yediot Ahronot on 25 and 26 December 2008.

What determines Barak's decisions regarding the Gaza crisis?
Political considerations 55% Relevant considerations 32%

What caused Shaul Mofaz to say that Gaza should be hit with full force?
Political considerations 54% Relevant considerations 32%

What is behind the criticism of Barak by ministers regarding Gaza?
Political considerations 72% Relevant considerations 16%

What will mainly determine your choice of party to vote for?
Commitment 14% Team 14% Leader 31% Positions 34%

Do you count on DM Barak to manage the Gaza crisis?
Yes 31% No 63%

Is it proper for Ehud Olmert to carry out negotiations with Syria at the end
of his term?
Yes 27% No 70%

For full peace with Syria should Israel give up the entire Golan?
Yes 14% Part 32% Not any part 50%

Do you believe Netanyahu when he declares that a government he heads won't
leave the Golan?
Yes 35% No 61%

Do you believe that Syrian president Assad wants real peace with Israel?
Yes 25% No 69%

What should be done now in Gaza?
Limited campaign 15% Like now 21% Broad invasion 22% Targeted killing 27%

What will mostly determine your decision as to what party to vote for?
20% Who will handle the economic crisis
43% Who will handle the security crises

In light of the worsening situation in Gaza, who is most appropriate to be
defense minister?
Yaalon 28% Barak 24% Mofaz 19%

Additional poll results from Poll #4 Telephone poll of a representative
sample of 475 adult Israelis (including Arab Israelis) by Dialogue on 23
December and published in Haaretz on 25 & 26 December 2008.

Will you vote in the elections?
Certain yes 64% Think yes 17% Think no 7% Certain no 6% Don't know 6%

Do you agree or disagree with the following campaign slogans:

"Likud - because the state has to be managed"
Agree 39% Disagree 47% Don't know 14%

"Tzipi Livni - a different leader"
Agree 39% Disagree 47% Don't know 14%

Ehud Barak - leader"
Agree 26% disagree 63% Don't know 11%

Would you support a peace agreement with Syria that might include leaving
the Golan?
[AL: It is not clear why the pollster added in the qualifier "might" into
the question - unless (surprise surprise) the folks at left wing Haaretz
thought that adding "might" in could help push up support for what they see
as the "correct" answer]
No 56% Yes 38% Don't know 6%

TO what extent are the following candidates appropriate to be prime
minister?
Netanyahu ye 50% No 43% Don't know 7%

Livni: Yes 40% No 51% Don't know 51%

Barak Yes 24% No 69% Other 7%

Who do you think will be the next prime minister?
Netanyahu 46% Livni 21% Barak 7%

Who would you like to be the next prime minister?
Netanyahu 27% Livni 22% Barak 10%

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il

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