Poll: War boosting Likud and Labor
Gil Hoffman , THE JERUSALEM POST Jan. 2, 2009
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Both Likud and Labor have received a boost, while Kadima has floundered,
according to a Smith Research poll taken for The Jerusalem Post this week
amid Operation Cast Lead in the Gaza Strip.

The survey found that the Likud had risen from 27 seats to 29, Labor had
gone up from 14 to 15, and Kadima had fallen from 27 to 23 since the
previous Post poll was published on October 31. Likud and Kadima, which were
tied then, are now six seats apart, and the Right bloc's advantage over the
Left remains a hefty eight mandates, 64 to 56.

While the survey's 500 respondents were undoubtedly influenced by the Gaza
fighting that raged as the poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday, many
other events, including the drafting of the parties' Knesset lists, have
occurred over the past two months to influence voter opinion.

A consensus of other polls taken more regularly has found that Likud's and
Kadima's support has remained steady since the air offensive began on
Saturday, while Labor has gained substantially due to the battle led by its
chairman, Defense Minister Ehud Barak. In other polls, Labor fell from 15 to
as few as eight seats and has since gone back up.

The Post survey found that both national religious parties, Habayit Hayehudi
and the National Union, would pass the 2 percent electoral threshold.
Pollster Rafi Smith said the public was not yet aware of the differences
between the two parties that recently split.

The poll predicted that the Green Party would narrowly cross the threshold
while the Pensioners Party, Meimad-Green Movement, and Green Leaf would fail
to enter the Knesset.

Smith said 15% of respondents identified themselves as floating voters. Such
people were more likely to be secular, older, women, or immigrants from the
former Soviet Union. Young people and Arabs were the least likely to vote,
the poll found.

Asked whether they found the Likud and Kadima lists attractive, respondents
were equally positive and negative about Likud's candidates. Fifty-one
percent said they found the Kadima list unattractive, while just 28% said it
attracted them.

Other polls published this week found that 81% of Israelis supported the war
in Gaza, but only 63% believed it would succeed in stopping rocket fire on
the South. The surveys were divided on whether there should be a ground
offensive in the Strip or whether Israel should seek a cease-fire.

A Ma'agar Mohot poll broadcast Wednesday night on Channel 2 found that
Barak's rating as defense minister had skyrocketed since the war began, from
23% to 60%.