5 Polls show radically different results for Likud and Kadima
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date 2 January 2009

Poll #1 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 800 adult Israelis
(including Arab Israelis) by TNS Teleseker apparently on 1 January and
published in
Maariv on 2 January 2009.

Poll #2 Telephone poll of a representative sample of adult Israelis
(including Arab Israelis) by Geocartography on 31 December and published in
Globes on 1 January 2009.

Poll #3 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 472 adult Israelis
(including Arab Israelis) by Dialogue on 31 December and published in
Haaretz on 1 January 2009.

Poll #4 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 505 adult Israelis
(including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute
(headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Television Channel 2 "Mishal
Cham" program 30 December 2008 - 4th day of operation in Gaza.

Poll #5 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 500 adult Israelis
(including Arab Israelis) by Smith Consulting on 29-30 December and
published in The Jerusalem Post on 2 January 2009.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5
28 22 27 25 23 [29] Kadima headed by Livni
16 12 16 15 15 [19] Labor
28 38 32 31 29 [12] Likud
11 08 09 10 10 [12] Shas
12 15 11 10 12 [11] Yisrael Beteinu
04 03 03 04 05 [03] "Jewish Home" (previously NRP)
00 00 00 01 02 [06] Nat'l Union
05 04 05 05 06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah
06 ?? 07 05 06 [05] Meretz
00 ?? 00 02 02 [00] Green Party
00 ?? 00 00 00 [00] Social Justice (Gaydamak Party)
00 ?? 00 02 00 [07] Retirees Party
10 ?? 10 10 10 [10] Arab parties
00 ?? 00 00 00 [00] Meimad
00 ?? 00 00 00 [00] Strong Israel (Efraim Sneh)

?? Specific results not shown in the article for these parties.

Additional results for Poll #1 Telephone poll of a representative sample of
800 adult Israelis (including Arab Israelis) by TNS Teleseker apparently on
1 January and published in Maariv on 2 January 2009.

The Knesset elections are scheduled for 10 February. In light of the war in
Gaza should the elections be postponed or held on time?
Postpone 33% On time 55.3%

A few days ago the IDF began fighting Hamas in order to bring about a halt
to the firing of rockets at Israel. To what extent do you support this
operation?
Greatly support 78.9% Considerably support 14.2% Considerably oppose 2.2%
Greatly oppose 1.7%

After five days of battle against Hamas what do you think Israel should do
now?
39.6% Air operation only
41.8% Ground operation
9.3% Ceasefire now

If and when there are negotiations of a ceasefire with Hamas, how should
Israel handle the Gilad Shalit issue?
17.2% Agree to ceasefire in any event
77.3% Agree to ceasefire only with release of Gilad Shalit

In light of the war against Hamas and the management of the administration,
have your feelings about the following people changed?
Barak: Improved 43.9% Worsened 2.5% Unchanged 48%
Livni: Improved 27.9% Worsened 3.1% Unchanged 63.5%
Olmert: Improved 24.4% Worsened 7.1% Unchanged 63.5%
Netanyahu: Improved 23.0% Worsened 3.5% Unchanged 68.4%

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il