Poll: 76% oppose truce without Shalit
War and Peace Index shows Jewish public supports Gaza operation, objects to
ending it if kidnapped soldier is not released as part of agreement, even if
rocket fire stops. Arab public conveys opposite views
Ynet Published: 01.09.09, 12:17 / Israel News
www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3653393,00.html

A majority of the Jewish public in Israel opposes a ceasefire in Gaza
without kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit's release, according to the monthly
War and Peace Index poll conducted about a week and a half after the start
of Operation Cast Lead.

Beyond the decisive support for the Israel Defense Forces' operation, the
public also backs the raid's continuation even if Hamas holds fire under
certain conditions.

The respondents were asked, "If a ceasefire agreement with Hamas could be
reached, but without including Gilad Shalit's release, do you believe Israel
should or should not sign such an agreement?" About 76.5% gave a negative
answer, while only 17.5% responded positively.

Asked whether Israel should or should not halt its military activity in the
Strip if Hamas is ready to stop firing on southern communities in exchange
for the opening of the crossings, 80% responded negatively. In other words,
the majority of the public believes Israel should not halt its operation
even if Hamas accepts such an offer.

Before the recent days - which saw additional IDF casualties, and many
casualties among the Palestinian and UN workers - the operation was
supported by a sweeping majority of the Jewish public: 94% of the Jewish
public said they support or very much support the operation, 92% said they
believe it benefits Israel in terms of security, and a clear but smaller
majority believes the operation helps Israel diplomatically as well.

About 92% of the population justifies the Air Force strikes in Gaza despite
the damage caused to infrastructure and the civilian population's suffering.
The decision to send in ground forces was also widely supported, with 70%
saying this was a necessary move.

Barak leads trust index

Asked whether the operation must be continued, a vast majority of the public
shares the same opinion, with 90% of respondents saying the operation should
be continued until Israel reaches all of its goals.

This support was accompanied by the estimate of 70% of the public that the
chances of the operation achieving all of its goals are high or quite high,
and that the government has a clear plan of action as to ways to continue
the operation (75%).

The wide support for the ongoing fighting seems to be fed largely by the
public's positive estimates today in regards to the IDF's fighting abilities
(93%) and the southern communities' stamina (87%).

In light of the wide support, it's not surprising that the leaders linked to
the operation receives relatively high trust scores, although there are
differenced between the different officials.

IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi leads the trust scale with 85%. This is
likely because the IDF is considered "above" the political arena.

Ashkenazi is followed by President Shimon Peres and Defense Minister Ehud
Barak (62%), and by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Opposition Chairman
Benjamin Netanyahu (53%). Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is located at the
bottom of the trust scale with only 44%.

The findings from a similar survey held among Israel's Arab citizens paint
an opposite picture on almost every question. For example, 85% of the Arabs
oppose the operation; 93% believe Israel should halt it based on an
agreement which would include Hamas ceasing the rocket fire in exchange for
opening the crossings; and 80% believe Israel should sign a ceasefire
agreement even if it fails to include Shalit's release.

The War and Peace Index is conducted by the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace
Research. Published monthly since 1994, it is run by Prof. Ephraim Yaar and
Prof. Tamar Hermann. The current telephone survey was conducted by the B.I.
and Lucille Cohen Institute for Public Opinion Research at Tel Aviv
University between January 4 and 6, and was compiled of 593 Israeli citizens
representing the various adult sectors in Israeli society. The sampling
error is 4.5%.