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Saturday, January 24, 2009
5 Polls: Likud 28-35 Kadima 21-25 Labor 14-17 Yisrael Beiteinu 12-16 73.7% expect renewed fighting with Hamas within two years

5 Polls: Likud 28-35 Kadima 21-25 Labor 14-17 Yisrael Beiteinu 12-16 73.7%
expect renewed fighting with Hamas within two years
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date 24 January 2009

Poll #1 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 600 adult Israelis
including Israeli Arabs) carried out by TNS Teleseker for Maariv apparently
on 22 January 2009. Published on 23 January

Poll #2 Telephone poll of a representative sample of adult Israelis
including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Dahaf for Yediot Ahronot apparently
on 22 January 2009. Published on 23 January

Poll #3 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 623 adult Israelis
including Israeli Arabs) carried out by New Wave for Yisrael Hayom on 21
January 2009. Published on 22 January

Poll #4 Telephone poll of a representative sample of adult Israelis
including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Geocartography for Globes on 21
January 2009. Published on 22 January

Poll #5 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 522 adult Israelis
(including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute
(headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Television Channel 2 "Mishal
Cham" program 20 January 2009.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5
24 25 25 21 22 [29] Kadima headed by Livni
16 17 15 15 14 [19] Labor
28 29 35 32 30 [12] Likud
09 10 09 09 11 [12] Shas
16 14 12 16 16 [11] Yisrael Beteinu
04 02 02 04 02 [03] "Jewish Home" (previously NRP)
06 06 05 05 05 [06] Yahadut Hatorah
06 05 06 05 07 [05] Meretz
00 00 00 00 00 [00] Green Party
00 00 00 00 00 [07] Retirees Party
09 09 09 10 09 [10] Arab parties
00 00 00 00 01 [00] Meimad
00 00 00 00 00 [00] Strong Israel (Efraim Sneh)
02 03 02 03 02 [06] National Union (reconstituted)
00 00 00 00 00 [00] Social Justice (Gaydamak Party)
00 00 00 00 01 [00] Green Leaf (legalize marijuana)
* 1 seat is not enough to get into the Knesset as need 2% of valid votes.

Poll #1 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 600 adult Israelis
including Israeli Arabs) carried out by TNS Teleseker for Maariv apparently
on 22 January 2009. Published on 22 January

Was the decision by the Israeli leadership to declare a ceasefire in Gaza
and not continue the fighting the right decision? Yes 57.8% No 37.6%

What do you think was the main reason that the leadership decided to declare
a ceasefire in Gaza and not continue the fighting?
31.7% International pressure
20.7% Fear of IDF losses
19.3% Barak Obama becoming president
16.6% Fear of being sucked into an ongoing occupation of Gaza
4.4% Continued damage to the front
3.7% Other reasons
3.7% Don't know

Will there be another round of fighting between Israel and Hamas in the next
two years?
Certain yes 37.2% Think but not certain 36.5%
Think no 18.3% Don't know 7.9%

Poll #2 Telephone poll of a representative sample of adult Israelis
including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Dahaf for Yediot Ahronot apparently
on 22 January 2009. Published on 23 January
What grade do you give for the performance of the following in the Cast
Lead operation?
Livni" Good 63% Bad 31%
Netanyahu: Good 65% Bad 23%
Olmert: Good 68% Bad 35%
Barak: Good 77% Bad 19%
Ashkenazi: Good 85% Bad 13%

Who should be the next defense minister?
Barak 52% Yaalon 16% Mofaz 15%

Who would you like to be prime minister?
Netanyahu 35% Livni 26% Barak 14%

How long will the ceasefire last?
Month or less 25% Few months 34% Long period 27%

Was it justified to void the participation of the Arab parties in the
elections [AL: The Supreme Court overturned the decision]
Yes 61% No 32%

Should the operation have halted in Gaza or should all of Gaza been
conquered?
Stop 44% Conquer all of Gaza 48%

Should hundreds of prisoners - including prisoners with blood on their
hands - be released in exchange for Gilad Shalit?
Yes 66% No 25%

Should the operation have been continued until the release of Gilad Shalit?
Yes 56% no 36%:

Poll #3 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 623 adult Israelis
including Israeli Arabs) carried out by New Wave for Yisrael Hayom on 21
January 2009. Published on 22 January also asks:
Was Cast Lead in Gaza a success or failure>?
Success 59% Failure 18% Don't know 23%

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il

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