5 Polls: Likud ahead of Kadima by 3-12 seats, some Arab parties may not get
enough vote to reach Knesset
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date 31 January 2009

Poll #1 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 600 adult Israelis
(including Israeli Arabs) carried out apparently on 29 January by Teleseker
TNS for Maariv and published on 30 January. Tha Arab Balad party would not
get enough votes to make it into the Knesset.

Poll #2 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 800 adult Israelis
(including Israeli Arabs) carried out 28 January by Geopcartography for
Globes and published
on 30 January.[They found that two of the Arab parties would not get enough
votes to make it into the Knesset thus leaving Chadash as the only Arab
party in the Knesset.)

Poll #3 Telephone poll of a representative sample of adult Israelis
(including Arab Israelis) carried out by Shvakim Panorama for Israel Radio's
Hakol Diburim (It's All Talk) 28 January 2009. 18.5% were undecided.

Poll #4 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 670 adult Israelis
(including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Dialog for Haaretz and published
on 29 January.

Poll #5 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 529 adult Israelis
(including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute
(headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Television Channel 2 "Mishal
Cham" program 27 January 2009. 20% of respondents did not say what party
they would vote for.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5
23 23 20 25 22 [29] Kadima headed by Livni
17 15 16 14 13 [19] Labor
28 31 29 28 34 [12] Likud
10 10 11 10 10 [12] Shas
16 16 16 15 16 [11] Yisrael Beteinu
04 03 03 03 03 [03] "Jewish Home" (previously NRP)
05 06 07 05 05 [06] Yahadut Hatorah
06 07 04 05 05 [05] Meretz
00 00 00 00 00 [00] Green Party
00 00 02 02 00 [07] Retirees Party
08 04 09 09 10 [10] Arab parties
00 00 00 00 00 [00] Meimad
00 00 00 00 00 [00] Strong Israel (Efraim Sneh)
03 05 03 04 02 [06] National Union (reconstituted)
00 00 00 00 00 [00] Green Leaf (legalize marijuana)
* 1 seat is not enough to get into the Knesset as need 2% of valid votes.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il