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Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Poll: Likud 31 Kadima 23 Labor 12 Yisrael Beiteinu 17 - 28% undecided

Poll: Likud 31 Kadima 23 Labor 12 Yisrael Beiteinu 17 - 28% undecided
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date 3 February 2009

Before operation: "Right" 66 seats "Left" 45 seats Arabs 9 seats
On second day of operation "Right" 57 seats "Left" 53 seats Arabs 10 seats
On fourth day of operation "Right" 61 seats "Left" 49 seats Arabs 10 seats
6 January "Right" 63 seats "Left" 48 seats Arabs 9 seats
13 January "Right" 62 seats "Left" 48 seats Arabs 10 seats
18 January after ceasefire: "Right" 65 seats "Left" 46 seats Arabs 9 seats
21 January after ceasefire: "Right" 66 seats "Left" 45 seats Arabs 9 seats
27 January after ceasefire: "Right" 70 seats "Left" 40 seats Arabs 10 seats
30 Jan-2 Feb: "Right" 70 seats "Left" 40 seats Arabs 10 seats

Poll #1A CERTAIN VOTING Telephone poll of a representative sample of 463
adult Israelis
(including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute
(headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz 30 January through 2 February who said
that they are certain they will vote.
21% did not say what party they would vote for.

Poll #1B Telephone poll of a representative sample of 671 adult Israelis
(including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute
(headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz 30 January through 2 February.
28% did not say what party they would vote for.

2 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 529 adult Israelis
(including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute
(headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Television Channel 2 "Mishal
Cham" program 27 January 2009. 20% of respondents did not say what party
they would vote for.

Poll #3 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 522 adult Israelis
(including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute
(headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Television Channel 2 "Mishal
Cham" program 20 January 2009.

Poll #4 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 512 adult Israelis
(including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute
(headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Television Channel 2 News
program on 18 January 2009, the first day of the ceasefire and broadcast on
the evening news program.

Poll #5 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 506 adult Israelis
(including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute
(headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Television Channel 2 "Mishal
Cham" program 13 January 2009.

Poll #6 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 514 adult Israelis
(including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute
(headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Television Channel 2 "Mishal
Cham" program 6 January 2009.

Poll #7 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 505 adult Israelis
(including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute
(headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Television Channel 2 "Mishal
Cham" program 30 December 2008 - 4th day of operation in Gaza.

Poll #8 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 502 adult Israelis
(including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute
(headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Television Channel 10 during
the day of Sunday 28 December 2008 - the second day of the operation in
Gaza.

Poll #9 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 511 adult Israelis
(including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute
(headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Television Channel 2 "Mishal
Cham" program 23 December 2008
[19% undecided/other replies .]

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

#1A #1B #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9
23 23 22 22 23 26 25 25 28 25 [29] Kadima headed by Livni
13 12 13 14 15 16 17 15 16 11 [19] Labor
30 31 34 30 31 28 32 31 30 31 [12] Likud
10 11 10 11 12 10 10 10 10 12 [12] Shas
18 17 16 16 13 14 10 10 10 13 [11] Yisrael Beteinu
03 03 03 02 03 03 04 04 02 05 [03] "Jewish Home" (previously NRP)
06 06 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 [06] Yahadut Hatorah
04 04 05 07 06 06 06 05 07 06 [05] Meretz
01 01 00 00 01 00 00 02 01 01 [00] Green Party
00 00 00 00 01 00 00 02 01 02 [07] Retirees Party
10 10 10 09 09 10 09 10 10 09 [10] Arab parties
00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 00 00 [00] Meimad
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 [00] Strong Israel (Efraim Sneh)
02 02 02 02 01 02 02 01 00 00 [06] National Union (reconstituted)
00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 00 00 [00] Green Leaf (legalize marijuana)
* 1 seat is not enough to get into the Knesset as need 2% of valid votes.

How certain are you that you will vote?
Certain no 3% Not probable 12% So-so 3% High 13% Absolutely certain 69%

Among the voters who did not say what party they would vote for::
When will you make your final decision as to how to vote?
Total:
Election day/at voting booth 25% Day before 5%
Few days before 11% Soon 11% Don't know 48%
Among Certain voting:
Election day/at voting booth 27% Day before 5%
Few days before 12% Soon 12% Don't know 44%

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il

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