5 Polls: Likud ahead of Kadima 3-8 seats Yisrael Beteinu 16-17 seats
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date 5 February 2009

In a live interview broadcast on Israel Radio after the Shvakim Panorama
poll results were announced, MK Netanyahu warned that those who vote for
right wing "satellite parties" are making a mistake in thinking that a Likud
victory is already a certainty when this is far from the case. Netanyahu
declined to comment on Ari Shavit's harsh remarks yesterday that FM Livni is
not qualified to serve as prime minister. Netanyahu responded that the
elections are not over personalities but instead policy and that there is a
clear choice between Likud and Kadima over the Golan, Jordan Valley and
united Jerusalem.

Poll #1 Telephone poll of a representative sample of adult Israelis
(including Arab Israelis) carried out by Shvakim Panorama for Israel Radio's
Hakol Diburim (It's All Talk) 4 February 2009. .

Poll #2 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 972 adult Israelis
(including Israeli Arabs) carried out by New Wave 3-4 February for
Yisrael Hayom and published on 5 February.

Poll #3 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 600 adult Israelis
(including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Geocartography 2 February for
Globes and published on 4 February.

Poll #4 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 700 adult Israelis
(including Israeli Arabs) carried out by TNS Teleseker 2 February for
Maariv and published on 4 February.

Poll #5 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 671 adult Israelis
(including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute
(headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz 30 January through 2 February.
28% did not say what party they would vote for.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5
21 24 21.0 23 23 [29] Kadima headed by Livni
16 16 17.0 17 12 [19] Labor
25 30 24.5 27 31 [12] Likud
11 09 11.0 10 11 [12] Shas
16 17 17.0 17 17 [11] Yisrael Beteinu
04 02 02.0 03 03 [03] "Jewish Home" (previously NRP)
07 05 05.0 05 06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah
05 06 08.5 06 04 [05] Meretz
00 00 00.0 00 01 [00] Green Party
02 00 02.0 00 00 [07] Retirees Party
09 08 06.0 08 10 [10] Arab parties
00 00 00.0 00 00 [00] Meimad
00 00 00.0 00 00 [00] Strong Israel (Efraim Sneh)
04 03 06.0 04 02 [06] National Union (reconstituted)
00 00 00.0 00 00 [00] Green Leaf (legalize marijuana)
* 1 seat is not enough to get into the Knesset as need 2% of valid votes.
** 24.5 = 24-25, 8.5 = 8-9

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il