[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA: Drop the rose colored glasses for a moment.
"Among Palestinians, 51% support and 46% oppose launching of rockets from
the Gaza Strip against Israeli towns and cities like Sderot and Ashkelon."
Oops.]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
June 14, 2009
PRESS RELEASE
Joint Israeli-Palestinian Poll, June 2009
www.pcpsr.org/survey/polls/2009/p32ejoint.html
Pessimism among Israelis and Palestinians regarding the prospects for a
settlement and a Palestinian state in the next few years, but majorities on
both sides support a two-state solution.
Following Obama's Cairo speech, Israelis' pessimism decreased somewhat and
support for the two-state solution increased slightly
These are the results of the most recent poll conducted jointly by the
Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the
Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Palestinian Center for Policy and
Survey Research in Ramallah, between May 21-June 3, 2009. This joint survey
was conducted with the support of the Ford Foundation Cairo office and the
Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ramallah and Jerusalem. The poll was conducted
before Obama's Cairo speech on June 4. Following the speech, another survey
was conducted (June 7-8) which repeated some of the first survey questions
on a representative sample of the Israeli public to assess the speech's
impact. We did not conduct a similar poll among Palestinians after the Obama
speech.
a.. 67% of the Palestinians and 62% of the Israelis believe that it is
impossible to reach these days a final status agreement. Only 30% and 35%
respectively believe it is possible. In the same vein, 69% of the
Palestinians and 61% among Israelis think that chances for the establishment
of an independent Palestinian State next to the State of Israel in the next
five years are non-existent or low; 28% of the Palestinians and 32% of the
Israelis believe the chances are medium or high. Nonetheless, a majority of
Israelis (59%) and Palestinians (61%) support a two-state solution. 36% of
Israelis oppose it; 23% of the Palestinians support a one-state solution.
b.. Following Obama's Cairo speech, Israelis' support for a two-state
solution increased slightly from 59% to 63%. Obama's speech had greater
impact on Israelis' expectations as to the chances for a final status
settlement with the Palestinians and for the establishment of a Palestinian
state: Assessment that the chances for a Palestinian state are medium or
high increased by 10 percentage points after the speech, and beliefs that it
is possible to reach a final status settlement increased by 6 percentage
points.
c.. Among other findings of the joint Truman PSR poll: 43% of the
Palestinians feel that nuclearization of Iran holds positive consequences
for the Arab region; 33% see it negatively. 52% of the Israelis support
the bombing of the Iranian nuclear facilities if the international efforts
to prevent it from obtaining a nuclear device fail.
d.. The poll also reveals that 52% of the Israelis and 50% of the
Palestinians would support a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of
the Jewish people and of Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people
after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the
settlement of all issues in dispute. While a majority of the publics still
supports this mutual recognition of identity, the current figures indicate a
decrease in support among both publics compared to past surveys.
The Palestinian sample size was 1270 adults interviewed face-to-face in
the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip in 127 randomly selected
locations between May 21-23, 2009. The margin of error is 3%. The Israeli
sample includes 606 adult Israelis interviewed by phone in Hebrew Arabic or
Russian between May 24 and June 3, 2009. The margin of error is 4.5%. The
poll was planned and supervised by Prof. Yaacov Shamir, the Harry S. Truman
Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace and the Department of
Communication and Journalism at the Hebrew University, and Prof. Khalil
Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research
(PSR).
For further details on the Palestinian survey contact PSR director, Prof.
Khalil Shikaki or Walid Ladadweh, at tel. 02-2964933 or email
pcpsr@pcpsr.org. On the Israeli survey, contact Dr. Yaacov Shamir at tel.
03-6419429 or email jshamir@mscc.huji.ac.il.
MAIN FINDINGS
(A) Negotiation Tracks on the Agenda
The Israeli-Palestinian track
a.. 50% of the Israelis support and 48% oppose talks with Hamas if
needed to reach a compromise agreement with the Palestinians. The same
figures were obtained in our March 2009 poll. A sizeable Israeli majority
(62%) support and only 31% oppose talks with a national unity government
composed jointly of Hamas and Fatah if such a government is reestablished.
In March 2009 these figures were 69% and 27% respectively.
b.. 78% of the Palestinians and 51% among Israelis prefer a
comprehensive settlement over an interim one where a Palestinian state is
established in the West Bank and Gaza while other issues such as refugees
would be postponed. Only 18% of the Palestinians and 33% of the Israelis
prefer the interim option.
c.. 68% of the Israeli public don't believe that the new Israeli
government will succeed to lead Israel to a final status settlement with the
Palestinians, while 25% believe it will succeed. Similarly, among the
Palestinians, 70% do not believe it is possible to reach such a settlement
with the new Netanyahu government; 27% think it is possible.
d.. More generally, 67% of the Palestinians and 62% of the Israelis
believe that it is impossible to reach these days a final status agreement;
30% and 35% respectively believe it is possible.
e.. 69% of the Palestinians and 61% among Israelis think that chances
for the establishment of an independent Palestinian State next to the State
of Israel in the next five years are non-existent or low; 28% of the
Palestinians and 32% of the Israelis believe the chances are medium or high.
f.. Nevertheless, 59% of the Israelis support and 36% oppose a two-state
solution. Among Palestinians, 61% support the two-state solution while 23%
support a one-state solution and 9% support other solutions. The two-state
solution was presented to the Palestinians as one "based on the
establishment of a Palestinian state along side Israel" while the one-state
solution was presented as "one in which Israel is unified with the West Bank
and the Gaza Strip to establish one state whereby Palestinian Arabs and
Israeli Jews would be equal."
g.. Moreover, 52% of the Israelis and 50% of the Palestinians agree that
after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the
settlement of all issues in dispute, including the refugees and Jerusalem
issues, there will be a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the
Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people. 41% and
49% respectively oppose such a proposal. While a majority of the publics
still supports this mutual recognition of identity, the current figures
indicate a decrease in support among both publics compared to past surveys.
Among Palestinians, support peaked at 66% in early 2006, and has since been
declining steadily. Among Israelis, support has drastically declined
following the 2009 elections.
h.. Following Netanyahu's refusal to accept the two-state solution and
Abbas's condition for resumption of negotiations that Israel accepts this
solution and freezes settlements, 46% of the Israelis and 44% of the
Palestinians expect that negotiations will resume but some armed attacks
will continue. 40% of the Israelis and 36% of the Palestinians think that
armed confrontations will not stop and the two sides will not return to
negotiations. 6% of the Israelis and 16% of the Palestinians think that
negotiations will resume soon enough and armed confrontations will stop.
The Arab League (Saudi) Plan
a.. 56% of the Israelis oppose and 36% support the Saudi initiative
which calls for Arab recognition of and normalization of relations with
Israel after it ends its occupation of Arab territories occupied in 1967 and
after the establishment of a Palestinian state. The plan calls for Israeli
retreat from all territories occupied in 1967 including Gaza the West Bank,
Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, and the establishment of a Palestinian
state. The refugees problem will be resolved through negotiation in a just
and agreed upon manner and in accordance with UN resolution 194. In return,
all Arab states will recognize Israel and its right to secure borders, will
sign peace treaties with her and establish normal diplomatic relation. In
our March 2009 poll 63% of the Israelis opposed the plan while 33% supported
it. Among Palestinians, 57% support the plan and 40% oppose it; in March
2009, 58% supported the plan and 39% opposed it.
Israeli-Syrian Track
a.. 62% of Israelis oppose full evacuation of the Golan Heights in
return for a complete peace agreement with Syria, and 26% support it. If in
the peace agreement, Syria will commit to disconnect itself from Iran and
stop its support of Hizbulla and Hamas, support increases to 34%
b.. 69% of the Israeli public do not believe that the new Israeli
government will succeed to lead Israel to a peace agreement with Syria,
while 22% believe it will succeed.
(B) Conflict Management, Support for Violence, Threat and Conflict Toll
Perceptions
a.. Among Israelis, 27% suggest that Israel should reoccupy the Gaza
Strip and stay there if the shelling of Israeli communities from the Gaza
Strip continues; 42% think that Israel should carry out ad-hoc operations
against the shelling and get out; 24% believe that Israel should use
primarily diplomatic rather than military steps. Among Palestinians, 51%
support and 46% oppose launching of rockets from the Gaza Strip against
Israeli towns and cities like Sderot and Ashkelon.
b.. 58% of the Israelis believe that Israel can overthrow the Hamas
regime in Gaza; 36% believe that it cannot.
c.. Among Israelis, 61% are worried that they or their family may be
harmed by Arabs in their daily life. Among Palestinians 45% fear that their
security and safety and that of their family are not assured.
d.. 52% of the Israeli public believe that Israel should bomb the
Iranian nuclear reactor if the efforts of the international community to
prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons fail; 35% oppose it. Among
Palestinians, 43% feel that nuclearization of Iran holds positive
consequences for the Arab region; 33% see it negatively.
e.. 69% of the Israelis think that the price the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict imposed on the Israeli society is high or unbearable; 28% think
that it is mid-range or low. However, 60% think the Israeli society can bear
this price for decades or forever; 14% think it can bear it another 10
years, and 13% believe that the Israeli society will be able to bear this
price another year or two.
f.. Only 23% of the Israelis feel that Israel's condition these days is
good or very good; 40% say it is so-so; 35% see it as bad or very bad.
g.. Among Palestinians, only 10% describe the conditions of the
Palestinians in the Gaza Strip as good or very good, 13% say so-so, and 74%
say bad or very bad. As to the conditions in the West Bank these days, 31%
describe the conditions of the Palestinians in the West Bank as good or very
good, 27% say so-so, and 38% say bad or very bad.
(C) The Impact of Obama's Cairo Speech on the Israeli Public
Following Obama's Cairo speech on June 4th we carried out a second survey
which repeated some of the first survey questions on a representative sample
of the Israeli public (N=528) to assess the speech's impact. The interviews
took place 3 days after the speech (June 7-8).
a.. Before the speech, 50% of the Israelis thought that Israel should
accept American pressure if the US under the leadership of Obama pressures
Israel to accept the two states for two people solution; 42% thought it
should reject such pressure. After the speech, willingness to accept such US
pressure increased to 52%, and rejection of it decreased by 4 percentage
points to 38%. A similar increase of 4 percentage points is observed in
Israelis' support for the two-state solution (59% support before the speech
and 63% thereafter).
b.. As to the Saudi plan, before Obama's speech, 34% of the Israelis
thought that Israel should accept American pressure on this issue, and 53%
thought it should reject it. After the speech, there was almost no change,
and the figures were 33% and 54% respectively. This stability is consistent
with Israeli majority opposition to the Saudi plan, which remained steadfast
as well following Obama's speech.
c.. Before Obama's speech, 35% of the Israelis thought that Israel
should accept American pressure if the US pressures Israel to join the
nuclear non proliferation treaty; 52% thought Israel should reject it. (This
question was not asked in the second survey).
Greater differences before and after Obama's speech were observed in
expectations of Israelis with regard to the evolution of the conflict:
a.. Expectations with regard to the establishment of a Palestinian state
in the next five years increased. 42% thought the chances for it are medium
or high after the speech, compared to 32% before.
b.. Similarly, Israeli beliefs that it is possible to reach these days a
final status settlement with the Palestinians increased from 35% before the
speech to 41% after it.
c.. Finally, Israeli beliefs in the success of international mediation
of the conflict increased following the speech from 49% to 52%, and the
percentage disbelieving in such mediation declined from 48% to 42%.
_______________________________________________________________________________
*This joint survey was conducted with the support of the Ford Foundation
Cairo office and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Ramallah.
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