[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA: The illegal militias are still there - some of
them even with day jobs in the PA security forces. And to a man the
Palestinian "moderates" warn that if they don't get what they want at the
negotiating table they will use the weapons against Israel. But hey. This
is a concern for people who have a planning horizon that stretches way out
beyond next month. Since when did the Israeli planning horizon go so far?]

ANALYSIS / Israel-PA relations have never been so good
By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent Last update - 03:52 04/09/2009
www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1112398.html

Mohammed Na'if, a 14-year-old Palestinian from the Jalazun refugee camp near
Ramallah, was killed Monday night by Israel Defense Forces fire after Na'if
and another youth threw firebombs at the settlement of Beit El.

A force from the Kfir Brigade saw them, and one of the soldiers shot Na'if.
The IDF investigation showed that a bullet aimed at his legs hit the youth
in the abdomen. He died of his wounds in an Israeli hospital.

The death of a teenager during Ramadan would normally have set off a wave of
riots in Ramallah. But current relations between Israel and the Palestinian
Authority are very different from what they used to be, and the city
remained calm.

Tuesday morning, a senior PA official called Brig. Gen. Yoav Mordechai, head
of the Civil Administration in the West Bank, and said "there are rumors in
Jalazun that the boy was not even throwing firebombs." Mordechai denied
this, adding that if his Palestinian interlocutor were not convinced, he
would send over photos from the scene. "There's no need," the Palestinian
said. "If you say so, I believe you."

Mordechai is a key member of the Israeli troika that has been carrying out a
silent revolution in the West Bank for more than a year. Its other members
are GOC Central Command Gadi Shamni and Brig. Gen. Noam Tivon, commander of
the IDF forces in the West Bank - both of whom will soon be leaving these
positions.

The process has been closely watched by Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi,
Defense Minister Ehud Barak and, lately, also Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu. But it has mostly been built from the bottom up: It began in the
field and only later expanded to the government echelons. The chief of staff
describes it simply: "Wherever they [the PA] take more action, we will take
less action."

The international community is mainly interested in the lifting of
restrictions on Palestinian movement and the optimistic forecasts for
economic growth on the West Bank (at least nine percent in 2009). But what
will determine whether the experiment succeeds or fails is how much blood is
spilled.

Since the start of 2009, 13 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank,
and four Israelis. In 2008, 51 Palestinians died, and no Israelis. The last
suicide attack inside Israel took place in February 2008, claiming the life
of a woman at a Dimona mall. The security situation has changed completely,
and it has led to the improvement in the Palestinian economy - though
Netanyahu's promise of "economic peace" still seems exaggerated.

In view of the calm, senior IDF officers have begun referring to the PA's
leadership - President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad - in
terms never before heard from such highly placed Israelis. Even during the
brief period of hope that followed the Oslo Accord, the attitude was not
like this.

Abbas and Fayyad have completely ended the former Palestinian doublespeak
about violence, lowered the level of anti-Israeli incitement and tightened
control over their security forces. Moreover, there is now close cooperation
among the IDF and the Shin Bet security service, the various Palestinian
security organizations, and their American advisers.

All this does not mean the Palestinian leaders have ceased to be tough
opponents in diplomatic negotiations: On that front, they are making no
concessions. And the compliments about their behavior on the security front
have bolstered their negotiating position in the international arena.

The most noteworthy change in the PA's behavior has to do with the fight
against Hamas. The PA got the point after the Islamist organization took
over the Gaza Strip in June 2007. When Fatah emerged from its shock, senior
PA officials recognized that if they wanted to prevent a repeat of Gaza in
the West Bank, they must stop leaving the war to Israel.

First, they targeted Hamas' charitable network and placed Fatah-affiliated
imams in mosques. Then they arrested Hamas operatives en masse, killing
those who resisted.