[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA

Pop quiz: Who is Gabi Ashkenazi?

(1) A Kadima back bencher in the Knesset who previously served in a high
position in the IDF?

(2) An analyst in the Foreign Ministry?

(3) Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff

Let's look at the argument Gabi Ashkenazi raises for making a deal with
Assad:

"We should not be disheartened by Assad," he said during private
conversations. The defense establishment has been steadily in favor of
resuming talks with Syria. A source present in meetings where Ashkenazi
spoke said that the chief of staff explained that "Israel has a strategic
interest in disassociating Syria from the extremist axis that Iran is
leading."

"Syria is not lost," Ashkenazi declared. "Assad is western educated and is
not a religious man. He can still join a moderate grouping."

Is this military analysis?

No.

It's at best the kind of pop-psychology that might be acceptable in the
working paper of some junior analyst at the Foreign Ministry.

But it has absolutely nothing to do with his area of expertise.

And so here is the real question to lose sleep over: Will the fact that
Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi apparently thinks that
handing over the Golan to Assad will make him a "moderate" and not consider
attacking Israel ever in the future, influence the analysis that he
actually is being paid to do: analyze the efficacy of security arrangements
being considered in the course of diplomatic discussions regarding the
Golan?

Because if when Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi prepares
the analysis he is thinking at the same time that Syria will never attack if
we would hand over the Golan he might be tempted to tinker with the analysis
in order to insure that Israeli security demands don't get in the way of
"peace in our time."

Impossible?

Hardly.

Consider all the brass who signed off on absurd security arrangements under
Oslo.]

Al Arabiya: PM Netanyahu tells Assad he's willing to cede Golan
By Avi Issacharoff and Barak Ravid Haaretz 13 November 2009
www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1127907.html

Could Israel and Syria be on the verge of a breakthrough in their exchanges
on the peace process? According to the pan-Arab satellite television station
Al Arabiya, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has relayed to the Syrian
President Bashar Assad, through French President Nicolas Sarkozy, an
expression of interest on renewing peace negotiations.

The same report says that Netanyahu expressed willingness to withdraw from
the Golan to the borders of June 4, 1967. Netanyahu also reportedly stressed
that he is interested in a meeting with Assad, without preconditions.

The Prime Minister's Bureau yesterday denied reports that Netanyahu had
relayed a message to Assad. However, political sources in Jerusalem said
yesterday that Netanyahu is also examining the possibility that France will
replace Turkey as a mediator between Israel and Syria.

In recent days the Syrian president has made a number of declarations on
peace with Israel. Earlier this week he warned that if negotiations fail
this would lead to "resistance" as an alternative.

Speaking at the forum of the Organization of the Islamic Conference in
Istanbul, Assad explained that "resistance to occupation is a national
obligation," calling it "a moral obligation and legitimate, and something to
be proud of."

However, Assad also said that resistance "does not contradict his permanent
wish to achieve a just and comprehensive peace on the basis of the return of
occupied territory."

On Wednesday, Assad said he does not propose any preconditions for
negotiations with Israel. "Resistance is the reality of our policy in the
past and in the future. We have no preconditions for peace, but we cannot
ignore our rights," he said.

Meanwhile, Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi reiterated in
recent weeks his support for the resumption of peace talks with Syria. "We
should not be disheartened by Assad," he said during private conversations.
The defense establishment has been steadily in favor of resuming talks with
Syria. A source present in meetings where Ashkenazi spoke said that the
chief of staff explained that "Israel has a strategic interest in
disassociating Syria from the extremist axis that Iran is leading."

"Syria is not lost," Ashkenazi declared. "Assad is western educated and is
not a religious man. He can still join a moderate grouping."

The issue of talks with Syria is one of the few things on which Ashkenazi
and Defense Minister Ehud Barak see eye to eye. Barak recently said in Tel
Aviv that "we should not belittle the signals of peace coming from Syria."