War and Peace Index October 2009
Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Prof. Tamar Hermann

About three-fourths of the Israeli Jewish public currently
supports holding negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians-the
highest level of support registered in recent years on the War and Peace
Index. At the same time, the public is divided on the question of
whether freezing construction in the settlements is important or
unimportant for a breakthrough in the talks with the Palestinians: 47% think
the freeze is important and 50% that it is unimportant. A majority of
two-thirds, compared to one-third, also oppose the United States pressuring
Israel on this issue. As expected, among those favoring negotiations, the
majority (57%) thinks the freeze is important and 37% that it is
unimportant. However, among those who oppose negotiations this majority
contracts; 93% of them say the freeze is unimportant. Yet, on the question
of American pressure, even among the supporters of negotiations a clear
majority of 57.5% opposes such pressure (38% support it and the rest take no
position). Not surprisingly, almost everyone (91%) among the
opponents of negotiations opposes such pressure.

Now that U.S. president Barack Obama has been in office about a year, we
again asked what the public thinks of his policy toward the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict. As in the past, now too his policy is
perceived as clearly inclined to the Palestinian side. At the same time,
when viewing the opinions on this question over time, a trend emerges of
decline in the rate of those who think Obama is pro-Palestinian and a rise
in the rate of those who believe his position is neutral or even
pro-Israeli. In May 2009 or about half a year ago, 55% thought he was
pro-Palestinian, 31% that he was neutral, and 5% that he was pro-Israeli;
today the corresponding rates stand at 40%, 37%, and 8%. In other words,
within half a year the percentage of those ascribing a pro-
Palestinian policy to Obama fell by 15%, while simultaneously the rate of
those who see him as pursuing a neutral policy rose by 6%, and a
pro-Israeli one by 3%. The remaining 6% went over to the category of those
who do not know.

During Hillary Clinton's latest visit to Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu
said that from Israel's standpoint negotiations for a settlement with the
Palestinians can begin immediately. On the question of "In your
opinion, was Netanyahu sincere about wanting to try and reach a
settlement with the Palestinians?" it turned out that the Jewish public is
evenly split between those who think he was sincere (46%) and that he was
insincere (45%). A check of the answers according to party voting in the
most recent elections shows that, among those who voted for the parties now
forming the coalition, the majority thinks Netanyahu was sincere, with the
exception of Torah Judaism voters most of whom, like most of the voters for
the opposition parties, do not believe he was sincere.

On the background of the recent declaration by Palestinian Authority
chairman Abu Mazen that he has decided not to run again for the chairman
post in the upcoming Palestinian elections, we asked whether his statement
was sincere or merely tactical and aimed at pressuring Israel and the
Americans. The answers reveal that a majority of the Jewish public (60%)
thinks the declaration came from tactical considerations while only 24%
believe in its sincerity, and the rest do not know. There is also a clear
division of opinion on whether Abu Mazen is currently capable of
reaching a settlement with Israel that would be acceptable to the
Palestinian side and durable. Twenty-eight percent think or are sure he can
reach such a settlement; 68% think or are sure that he cannot.
Interestingly, in the Arab public as well the majority thinks Abu Mazen's
declaration stemmed from tactical considerations, and, as in the Jewish
public, a majority sees him as incapable of reaching a settlement.

Following the publication of the arrest of Yaakov Teitel, suspected of a
long series of murderous attacks against Arabs, Messianic Jews, and
leftists, we asked the interviewees what proportion of the right-wing and
settler circles supports, in their view, Teitel's opinions. It turns out
that, while 39% believe only scattered individuals hold such views, 22%
think a "considerable minority" shares them, 20% consider that over half
have such opinions, and 11% assess that a substantial majority or the whole
sector harbors them. About 20% responded that they do not know. In other
words, about one-third believe that half or more of the sector shares Teitel's
positions. As for the claim that the Israeli Security Agency needing over
ten years before it nabbed Teitel, and then only after he had attacked Jews,
is explained by the fact that he was mainly attacking Palestinians, it
emerges that only a minority (21%) agrees while a clear majority disagrees
and one-quarter do not know.

The War and Peace Index is funded by the Evans Program for Conflict
Resolution Research of Tel Aviv University. The telephone interviews were
conducted by the B. I. Cohen Institute of Tel Aviv University on 11-12-13
November 2009, and included 507 interviewees who represent the adult
population of Israel (including the territories and the kibbutzim). The
sampling error for a sample of this size is 4.5%.