Weekly Commentary: Reading Shaul Mofaz's Half Baked Plan

Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 19 November 2009

When I downloaded Kadima MK Shaul Mofaz's plan I genuinely hoped to find
that the micron thick thinking news reports indicated went into the plan
simply reflected the failure of the reporters to go to the trouble to
actually read the program he has apparently devoted so much time to develop.

[The program, in Hebrew, can be found at
http://my.ynet.co.il/pic/news/08112009/1.pdf ]

Unfortunately, the press was, if anything, generous to Mofaz.

Mofaz proposes that the Palestinians first form a sovereign independent
state in 60% of the West Bank.

In fact, the timeline shows the "Palestinian state in temporary border" as
the very first thing taking place at the "starting point".

Mofaz notes, in a positive tone, that this sovereign state will have
diplomatic relations with the Arab states.

And while this is to be a state stripped of military abilities with the
"terror infrastructure and armed militias" broken up, the plan doesn't
actually indicate when this will take place.

Mofaz does, however suggest that an "international force" be deployed in
order to assist the Palestinians in this matter.

So we have a sovereign independent Palestinian state apparently formed while
the "terror infrastructure" is still in place - including the armed
militias, with diplomatic relations with all the Arab states. And this
terror infrastructure will enjoy the protection of human shields in the form
of an international force while Israel is deterred from taking action due to
the harsh international reaction that could be expected to any Israeli
operations within sovereign Palestine.

Shaul Mofaz calls this a "careful staged approach" - but creating a
sovereign independent Palestinian state as the first action in a plan is
anything but careful.

Even the Roadmap doesn't propose making such a reckless leap.

And what if the negotiations get bogged down? Mofaz proposes that Israel
commits - up front - to a "bridging system between the sides".

Put another way, whatever red lines Israel refuses to cross at the
negotiating table will be crossed for it via binding arbitration.

There's been considerable criticism of military plans that don't include an
"exit strategy" - but how about an "exit strategy" for if this
pie-in-the-sky plan doesn't work out?

"If these [AL: international involvement and regional Arab guarantees] don't
help to bring regional stability, we will have to act by ourselves against
the threats on the basis of our right to self defense."

That's nice to know.

But it would be useful to spend a few minutes thinking that very likely
scenario through and considering how the dangers and costs the Jewish State
might face then compare with the situation in the absence of a sovereign
Palestinian state.

If MK Mofaz's plan only earned him a few minutes of media coverage as part
of his campaign to replace Livni as the head of Kadima then it wouldn't be
worth the effort to actually go to the trouble and think about it.

But he is pushing it around the world.

And like most half-baked ideas, the best way to deal with it is to actually
go to the trouble and think about it long enough to realize that it is just
that: half baked.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il