Weekly Commentary: Constructive or Destructive Ambiguity? Unspoken
Requirements For “Demilitarized State�

Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 24 December 2009

“Real demilitarization is not a piece of paper, it’s not an agreement, and
it’s not some kind of Security Council resolution, because it is our
problem. It is our problem when we evacuate territory, and the territory
fills immediately with Iran or their agents or weapons from Iran and also
Syria…It has been demonstrated that this is the problem. That almost all the
weapons aren’t manufactured inside, they are imported, at least the
effective weapons, and they are becoming ever more effective, and thus a
true solution to demilitarization is required.

I know what the minimum conditions are for this demilitarization, and when
the time comes we will also discuss it.�
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu addressing the Knesset 23 December 2009

“This Palestinian state will be completely demilitarized. It will be allowed
to maintain lightly armed police and interior forces to ensure civil order.
Israel will continue to control all entries and exits to the Palestinian
state, will command its airspace, and not allow it to form alliances with
Israel's enemies.�
Speech by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon at the Herzliya Conference, Institute
of Policy and Strategy, December 4, 2002

Back in 2002 Prime Minister Sharon spelled out what he believed would be
necessary in order to insure that a Palestinian state would indeed remain
demilitarized.

Of course, Sharon’s last minute abandonment of the Philadelphi Corridor that
separated Gaza from Egypt made a mockery of that critical condition. But
Sharon’s notoriously short planning horizon isn’t the focus of this note.

If Ariel Sharon had no problem talking about the arrangements that would be
required to guaranty demilitarization, why does Binyamin Netanyahu opt to
leave us in the dark?

Here is a suggestion:

We have a paradox:

While a necessary condition for a Palestinian state is that “Israel will
continue to control all entries and exits�, it takes little or no
imagination to come up with strategies that a sovereign Palestinian state
could follow in order to ultimately effectively remove that Israeli control.

Put another way: a necessary condition for a permanently demilitarized
Palestinian state is that it is not an independent state.

It is noteworthy that Netanyahu has never used the terms “independent� or
“sovereign� to describe the Palestinian state that he has in mind.

Constructive or destructive ambiguity?

On the one hand, one might argue that we are so far away from the completion
of a deal with the Palestinians that it is pointless to raise such
requirements today.

On the other hand, a concerted, well thought out program to gain support for
such an Israeli position could require years.

Add to that that Prime Minister Netanyahu’s self imposed ambiguity can
readily lead to a situation in which his own team makes statements that will
later handicap and possibly undermine efforts to gain support for Israel’s
position.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il