MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis Series | No. 585 | February 9, 2010

Iran Nuclear Program

Developments in Iran's Nuclear Program - The Double Deception
By: A. Savyon*

The past 10 days have seen several developments connected to Iran's nuclear
program. In a January 31, 2010 television interview, Iranian President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced out of the blue that Iran had agreed to the
uranium exchange deal that it had rejected repeatedly since October 2009.
This announcement came several days after it was reported that the U.S. was
deploying missile defense systems in the Gulf. However, on February 7, 2010,
Ahmadinejad announced that Iran would begin to enrich uranium by itself, to
a level of 20%, and that it had attained laser technology for uranium
enrichment. The Iranian daily Kayhan, which is close to Iranian Leader Ali
Khamenei, even declared that, once Iran enriches uranium to 20%, the West
will not be able to stop it at that level of enrichment, and would have to
negotiate with it over higher levels of enrichment.[1]
These developments reveal deception by both parties - Iran and the West -
vis-à-vis Iran's nuclear program. Iran under the NPT advanced step by step
towards military nuclear status, disguising its intentions all along the
way. As for the West, it is presenting its policy as aimed at helping Iran,
while its diplomatic measures, and especially the uranium exchange deal, are
really aimed at hampering Iran's nuclear progress. This deepens Iran's
distrust, for it understands the deal's real purpose.
This paper will examine the recent developments in Iran's nuclear program:
Why Won't Iran Hand Over Its 1,200 Kg of Enriched Uranium for Further
Enrichment in the West?
In the past months, Iran has adamantly rejected the proposal that the West
presents as aimed at helping it by providing it with 20% enriched uranium
for its research reactor in Tehran.[2] The reason for this refusal is that,
according to the West's intention, the uranium handed over would indeed be
enriched to a higher level, but at the same time would be altered so that it
could not be enriched further for military use - and this is a deal that
Iran refused to accept. In their public statements, Iran's spokesmen do not
bring up this point, but they have stated repeatedly that they basically do
not trust the West. For example, Majlis speaker Ali Larijani warned at a
February 6 conference in Tehran that the West was trying to deceive Iran
with the nuclear deal but that the West should know that his country is not
falling for it: "The truth is that you [Westerners] are conducting a sort of
political deceit in order to separate Iran from [its] enriched uranium...
But you need to know... that the Iranians are not naive."[3]
It should be further noted that Iran has no need for 1,200 kg of
20%-enriched uranium which is the quantity arbitrarily set by the West in
the deal. The Tehran research reactor requires only 30 kg of 20%-enriched
uranium for its operations, and this quantity is equal to about 400 kg of
5%-enriched uranium; furthermore, this quantity will last it until the
reactor ceases to be operational, in about a decade.
Iran's position is that if the West does indeed want only to help Iran, as
it says, then Tehran does not need to enrich more than 400 kg, but the West
is demanding that Iran hand over 1,200 kg, which constitutes 75% of its
enriched uranium stock. This demand proves that the West wants to maintain
its nuclear military hegemony and to prevent Iran from attaining military
nuclear status. For this reason, Iran is adamant that it will not hand over
its strategic reserves to the West.
The position presented in recent days by Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr
Mottaki focuses on the ongoing dispute between Iran and the superpowers
vis-à-vis the quantity of lower-level enriched uranium that Iran would hand
over for enrichment. At the 46th Munich Security Conference (February 5-7,
2010), Mottaki portrayed as likely Iran's acceptance of a deal, and said
that Iran and the IAEA had already agreed to the nuclear deal with a third
country and that all that remained was to set the time, place, and quantity
of uranium that Iran would hand over. However, he stressed that "it is the
Iranian side that will set the scope [of the uranium] exchange [deal], with
attention to its own needs" and that "the quantity of nuclear fuel [enriched
to 3.5% that Iran will agree to transport from its territory] will be in
accordance with Iran's needs, and the moment that Iran announces what this
quantity is, the deal will be able to go ahead."[4]
Nevertheless, an Iranian official told the Iranian news agency Fars that
Iran had not changed its position towards the deal proposed at the Vienna
conference, on October 19-21, 2009 - despite reports in recent days about a
"softer" stance being adopted vis-à-vis the nuclear deal.[5] In addition,
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced in an interview on Iranian
television that Tehran does not oppose an uranium exchange deal outside
Iranian soil, adding that circles in Iran had raised an unnecessary stink
over the issue; however, he ignored the issue on which Iran and the West
disagree - that is, the quantity of enriched uranium that Tehran is willing
to hand over.[6]
Ahmadinejad: I Ordered 20% Uranium Enrichment; We Have Laser Technology
At the same time, in a step typical of Iran's nuclear policy, Iranian
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad launched a new phase in Tehran's struggle
against the superpowers with his defiant February 7 declaration that he had
already ordered the start of 20% uranium enrichment - thus obviating the
need for dialogue with the West or for compliance with the nuclear deal. At
the same venue, which was a conference titled "Iran's Laser Technology
Achievements," Ahmadinejad said: "I ordered the head of the Iranian Atomic
Energy Organization [Ali Akbar Salehi] to begin enriching uranium to 20%,
but the path of dialogue remains open." He added: "Iran has attained the
ability to enrich uranium using laser technology, and with this method it is
possible to perform enrichment faster and more accurately, and to any
[enrichment] level - but actually we do not plan to use this method."[7] He
added, "Of course, if these countries [i.e. the 5+1] come to us without
preconditions, the way to an exchange deal is still open."[8]
The next day, Iranian Atomic Energy Organization chief Ali Akbar Salehi said
that on February 9 Iran would begin to enrich uranium at 20% at the Natanz
facility, and noted that despite its ability to enrich uranium to any level
it desires, Iran preferred the option of acquiring the nuclear fuel plates
from a foreign country. In addition, he declared that Iran would construct,
within the year (i.e. March 2010 to March 2011), 10 uranium enrichment
centers.[9]
The conservative daily Kayhan, which is close to Khamenei, even stated in a
February 9 editorial that the West had missed the opportunity to stop Iran
at 5% enrichment, and that the minute Iran enriches uranium to 20%, the West
will not be able to stop it from advancing further. At that point, Iran will
not agree to stop at 20%, and the negotiations will be over enrichment to a
higher level.[10]
It should be noted that Iran possesses 1,600 kg of 5%-enriched uranium (5%
is the level permitted under IAEA regulations for generating power; the
country must announce that it will be enriching it and must obtain advance
approval). However, it is continuing its intensive work to enrich more
uranium, even though it has no plant or nuclear reactor that requires such
quantities of enriched uranium for operation. Furthermore, the Bushehr
reactor, which has not yet begun operating, does not require locally
enriched uranium, because under the agreement that Iran signed with Moscow
in 2005, Moscow is providing the fuel rods to operate it, and Iran has been
receiving them since 2007.
In these circumstances, it is very peculiar that the Iranian Atomic Energy
Organization director Salehi announced that Iran will construct 10
additional uranium enrichment centers; it means that Iran can be suspected
of enriching uranium for military purposes.
The West's Weakness in Dealing with the Iranian Nuclear Issue
Again and again, the West has called on Iran to accept its ultimatums, which
Iran knows are toothless; this approach exposes the West's, and particularly
the U.S.'s and Europe's, inability to deal with Iran in the vital issues of
global security and stability.
The West's unwillingness to publicly acknowledge that the "deal" that it
proposed is not really aimed at helping Iran, as it claims, but rather at
preventing Iran from using the enriched uranium for military purposes,
strips the West of its credibility vis-à-vis Tehran.
*A. Savyon is Director of the Iranian Media Project.
Endnotes:
[1] Kayhan (Iran), February 9, 2010.
[2] It should be recalled that the October 2009 Vienna talks did not produce
any deal, and the statements of former IAEA secretary-general Mohamed
ElBaradei at the conclusion of the talks, namely that Iran must respond to
the proposal within two days, referred to a proposal to which Iran was not
party in any way, and which was formulated exclusively by the West and
ElBaradei. In fact, Iran contended that the talks did not even deal with the
future of its nuclear program, but with its request to purchase 20% uranium
for the operation of its Tehran research reactor. See MEMRI Inquiry and
Analysis No. 557, "The Vienna Nuclear Talks - and Iranian/Western Rashomon,"
October 25, 2009, http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/108/0/3771.htm;
MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis No. 564, "Iran's Answer to the West: "Iran Has
Lost Its Patience'; 'We've Already Begun Production [of 20%-Enriched
Uranium]'", November 17, 2009,
http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/108/0/3803.htm.
[3] Al-Alam (Iran), February 7, 2010.
[4] ILNA (Iran), February 6, 2010.
[5] Fars (Iran), February 6, 2010.
[6] Fars (Iran), February 6, 2010.
[7] ILNA (Iran), February 7 2010. Iran's official presidency website quoted
Ahmadinejad as saying: "Today we can announce with pride that the scientists
and experts of our country are pushing the frontiers of knowledge in the
laser domain, and perhaps there is only one country in the world that
precedes us [in this area] and we must reduce this gap quickly by redoubling
[our] aspirations and efforts... Laser enrichment enables to enrich various
quantities of uranium with high accuracy and speed and at suitable quality.
Of course, Iran actually has no intent to use laser in this area, and with
the grace of God we will begin enriching uranium to 20% using the
centrifuges already in existence, and we will no longer need [external
help]." Iranian presidency website (Iran), February 7, 2010.
[8] Fars (Iran), February 7, 2010.
[9] ISNA (Iran), February 8, 2010. The Iranian news agency ILNA reported,
citing Al-Jazeera TV, that Iran has informed the IAEA that it is beginning
to enrich uranium to 20% in the Natanz facility. IRLA (Iran), February 8,
2010.
[10] Kayhan (Iran), February 9, 2010.

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