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Monday, July 12, 2010
PCPO Poll of Palestinians - 81.8 % won't drop right of return even if means deal breaker and no state, Hamas more popular in West Bank than Gaza

Poll No. 171
Date: July 12, 2010

The most recent poll of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO)
prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali has revealed that:

(46.8 %) of the Palestinian support the Palestinian governmentís decision
postponing the local municipal councilsí elections until
further notice.
(65.2 %) believe that those mostly benefiting from the flotillas sent to
break the
Gaza blockade are the Gazans.
(52.5 %) believe that the indirect Israeli-Palestinian talks will be a
failure.
(53.3 %) believe that the Israelis are not concerned about making peace
with the
Palestinians.
(69.3 %) support the intention of the PA President Mahmoud Abbas to pay a
visit
to Gaza.
(46.0 %) have confidence in Fateh leadership, (33.7 %) in Hamas leadership.
(81.8 %) oppose the renunciation of the right of home return.
(43.2 %) watch the FIFA world cup competitions on TV.

Beit Sahour Ė Section of Public Relations:

The most recent poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali, conducted and
published by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion during the period
from June 17 to July 2nd, 2010, covered a random sample of (1002)
respondents representing the various demographic specimens of adult
Palestinians (18 years and above) living in the West Bank, including East
Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip. The poll revealed that a great majority of the
Palestinians, reaching (69.3 %), support the intention of the PA President
Mahmoud Abbas to pay a visit to Gaza in the near future.

Dr. Nabil Kukali, Director-General of the Palestinian Center for Public
Opinion, said that after a good while of indirect talks between the
Palestinians and the Israelis there is a general feeling among the
Palestinians that these talks will fail. Itís obvious, so believe the
Palestinians, that Israel permanently tries to undermine the requirements of
the negotiation process. More than half of the Palestinian public,
specifically(53.3 %), doesnít trust the Israeli intentions and believe that
the Israelis are not concerned about making peace with the Palestinians.

Dr. Kukali further added that a clear majority of the Palestinians are
of the opinion that the party most benefiting from the flotillas sent to
break the Gaza blockade are the Gazans themselves, for the blockade levied
by Israel on Gaza Strip is seen as a form of collective punishment. The
pressing necessity arises now to lift this unjust blockade as to put an end
to this unbearable hardship the people in Gaza Strip are suffering from.

In his comments on the results of this poll, Dr. Kukali mentioned that
the confidence of the Palestinians in Hamas leadership has increased by
(18.7 %) compared with the results of the poll conducted in April. This rise
in confidence, Dr. Kukali stated, may be attributed to the popular
solidarity against the Israeli assault on the humanitarian aid flotilla
heading to Gaza as well as to the opening of the border crossings between
Gaza Strip and Egypt by the Egyptian government, and last, but not least, to
the blockade easing measures announced, and partly applied by the Israelis
themselves. ďAll thisĒ, Dr. Kukali said, ďhas obviously contributed to the
sudden rise of the popular confidence in Hamas leadership. This rise in
confidence comes unexpectedly from the West Bank, where Hamas scored (41.3
%) against (19.8 %) in their domain in Gaza Strip, giving an overall result
of (33.7 %) ď.

Regarding Fateh, the popular confidence in its leadership in the West
Bank (48.2 %) and in Gaza Strip (42.1 %) is almost balanced, giving an
overall result of (46.0 %) throughout the Palestinian territories. This
outcome however indicates that Fateh has still in Gaza Strip numerically
more than the double of Hamas supporters.

With respect to the US peace commitment, Dr. Kukali pointed out that
there is among the Palestinians an increasing feeling of frustration due to
the inability of the United States to exert more pressure on Israel as to
stop the settlement activities, particularly in East Jerusalem, and to make
a progress towards the peace process. This could indicate a clear retreat
from the US commitment declared by President Barack Obama to put an end to
the Israeli occupation, to establish a Palestinian state and to achieve a
comprehensive and just peace in the region.

Dr. Nabil Kukali said the results of the poll were as follows:
01) The Palestinian government with Salam Fayyad as its Prime Minister has
declared the postponement of the municipal council elections until further
notice. Are you with or against the postponement decision?

ResponsePercentage
1. With the postponement decision 46.8
2. Against the postponement decision 41.2
3. Donít know 12

02) What do you think is the main reason that induced the Palestinian Prime
Minister,
Mr. Salam Fayyad, to postpone the date of the local municipal elections?
ResponsePercentage
1. Giving more chance to the efforts working on lifting the Gaza blockade
and the reunion of both country territories.39.6
2. Differences inside Fateh about candidacy procedures and candidate lists.
37.6
3. Responding to Hamas demands3.3
4. A new precedent, not respecting the multiplicity and a blow to the
democratic process 3.2
5. Israel is not willing to have the elections at present.10.2
6. The United States and Europe are not encouraging to run these elections
at present.6.0

03) In general, to which extent are you content with the mechanism applied
for setting up the candidatesí lists during the preparation period for the
municipal councilsí elections, which are postponed until further notice?

ResponsePercentage
1.Content 19.9
2. Somewhat content 43.3
3. Discontent 24.5
4. Donít know 12.4

04) Having experienced now the process of setting up the candidateís lists
for the municipal council elections, do you think that the proportional
representation (list system) is better than the system applied in 2006
(voting for individual candidates and winning by majority of the votes) or
vice versa?

ResponsePercentage
1. The proportional representation (the new system) is better 44.9
2. The system applied in 2005 (voting for individual candidates) is better
41.9
3. Donít know 13.2

05) Who, you believe, is mostly benefiting from the flotillas sent to
break the Gaza blockade?
ResponsePercentage
1. The Gazans 65.2
2. Hamas and its leadership 25.7
3. Israel 1 4
4. Fateh 1.4
5. International Islamic movements 6.3

06) How would you rate the meeting of the PA President Abu Mazin with the
US-President Barack Obama?
ResponsePercentage
1. Very positive 6.2
2. Somewhat positive 38
3. Somewhat negative 28.9
4. Very negative 17.2
5. Donít know 9.6

07) Do you think the present US-administration under the President Barack
Obama would back the plan of recognizing a Palestinian state within the next
two years irrespective of its approval or disapproval by Israel?
ResponsePercentage
1. Yes 13.3
2. No 76.5
3. Donít know 10.2

08) Do you think, in general, the United States of America strongly
support, somewhat support, somewhat doesnít support, or doesnít support at
all Israel?
ResponsePercentage
1. Strongly support Israel 73.6
2. Somewhat support Israel 19.5
3. Somewhat doesnít support Israel 2.4
4. Doesnít support Israel at all 2.6
5. Donít know 1.9

09) What are your anticipations of the success chances of the indirect
Israeli-Palestinian negotiations? Will they succeed or fail in reaching an
agreement of permanent peace?
ResponsePercentage
1. Certainly, they will succeed1.5
2. They will succeed 36.6
3. They will fail 41.1
4. They will surely fail11.4
5. No opinion / Donít know 9.4

10) Do you expect the realization of a peace agreement between the
Palestinians and the Israelis next year?
ResponsePercentage
1.Yes 4.4
2. Likely 47.2
3. No 45.8
4. Donít know 2.5

11) Do you think the Israelis are concerned about making peace with the
Palestinians?
ResponsePercentage
1. Yes 10.9
2. To some extent 32.3
3. No 53.3
4. Donít know 3.6

12) Assuming the negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis
would fail, do you expect the outbreak of a third Intifada?
ResponsePercentage
1. Yes 31.9
2. No 50.7
3. Donít know 17.3

13) Are you more optimistic or pessimistic than in the past regarding the
possibility of reaching a final solution accord between Israel and the
Palestinians?
ResponsePercentage
1. More optimistic than in the past 8.4
2. Same extent of optimism as in the past 35.2
3. Same extent of pessimism as in the past 30.3
4. More pessimistic than in the past 20.9
5. Donít know / No attitude 5.2

14) Do you think that the Palestinians must renounce their right of home
return, which Israel will never accept, in exchange for having an
independent Palestinian state and the conclusion of a peace deal with
Israel?
ResponsePercentage
1. Yes, the Palestinians must do that 14.0
2. No, they shouldnít do that even if the price would be the non- conclusion
of a peace deal with Israel 81.7
3. I have no opinion 4.3

15) If the Palestinian leadership would waive the right of home return in
exchange for a financial compensation, would you accept or refuse that?
ResponsePercentage
1. I would accept that 13.1
2. I would refuse that 81.8
3. Donít know 5.1

16) Some people have confidence in Hamas political leadership, others in
Fateh political leadership, whilst others have no confidence in both
leaderships. Which of the following statements is closer to your opinion?
ResponsePercentage
1. I have confidence in Hamas leadership 33.7
2. I have confidence in Fateh leadership 46.0
3. I have no confidence in both leaderships 16.5
4. I donít know 3.8

17) The internal fighting in Gaza led to the split of Gaza Strip from the
West Bank and the creation of two separate governments, one in Gaza and the
other in the West Bank. What is Ė in your opinion Ė the most feasible
solution for the settlement of this problem?
ResponsePercentage
1. To return to the government of national unity 35.4
2. To endorse the Egyptian Reconciliation Document 36.1
3. To hold premature elections 26.6
4. To call for UN forces to take responsibility for Gaza Strip1.9

18) Do you support or oppose the intention of the PA President, Mr. Mahmoud
Abbas, to pay a visit to Gaza Strip in the near future?
ResponsePercentage
1. Strongly support 25.6
2. Support 43.7
3. Undecided 14.2
4. Oppose 7.4
5. Strongly oppose 6.9
6. Donít know 2.2

19) Do you watch daily the World Cup Football Competition on TV?
ResponsePercentage
1. Yes (Proceed to Q 21) 43.2
2. No 56.8

20) Which of the following football teams do you expect to win the FIFA
World Cup?
(Pre-coded, open answer)
ResponsePercentage
1. France 5.2
2. Algeria 7.3
3. Holland 1.3
4. Ghana 1.5
5. Germany 7.8
6. Great Britain 3.7
7. Italy 9.1
8. Portugal 3.7
9. Spain 4.8
10. Brazil 34.3
11. Argentina 14.5
12. Other 6.8

Methodology of the Survey Study:

Mr. Elias Kukali, a staff member of the Research and Studiesí Section at
the PCPO, said that all interviews of this survey were conducted inside the
respondentsí homes, i.e. face-to-face during different working hours, at
least five hours aí day, including the evening time, in order to ensure
proper presentation of those sub-groups of the population, which would
otherwise be difficult to reach and selecting one individual in each
household using the Last Birthday Method. The choices were taken from a
total of (156) election sites, from which (117) are located in the West Bank
and (39) sites in Gaza Strip.
Mr. E. Kukali has further established that the margin of error in this
poll was (+- 3.09 %) at a confidence level of (95 %). He added that the rate
of the female respondents in this survey was (49.4 %) and that of the male
respondents was (50.6%) . The distribution of the random sample between the
Palestinian two major regions was (64.4 %) in the West Bank, including East
Jerusalem, and (35.6 %) in Gaza Strip, allocated as follows: (52.7 %) urban
areas, (31.1 %) rural areas and (16.2 %) refugee camps. The average age of
the sample respondents was (34.8) years.

About PCPO:

The Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) was founded in February
1994 in Beit Sahour by Dr. Nabil Kukali, who became the director of
this center since that time.

Since that time we are dedicated to the following activities:

1) Conducting public opinion surveys.
2) Omnibus polls and services.
3) Market studies on all kinds of trading activities.
4) Surveys of consumer attitudes, consumption habits, and market shares.
5) Communication researches.
6) Focus group sessions and workshops on various topics.
7) Rendering services in the field of investment, including feasibility
studies.
8) In-depth interviews & brainstorming workshops.
9) Translation services from Arabic into English, German & Hebrew and
vice-versa.

PCPO is now a name for reliability, credibility and experience not only in
Palestine, but all over the world.

Find out more about us, along with the latest polls at www.pcpo.org

Contact Persons: Dr. Nabil Kukali & Elias Kukali
Tel: 00970 2 277 4846, Fax: 00970 2 277 4892
Mobile: 00970 599 726 878
P.O. Box 15, Beit Sahour - Palestine
Email: dr.kukali@pcpo.org

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