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Thursday, July 29, 2010
Weekly Commentary: A message to Abbas: haggling with a democracy different than with dictatorship

Weekly Commentary: A message to Abbas: haggling with a democracy different
than with dictatorship
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 29 July 2010

These are the indisputable facts:

#1. In the waning days of PM Ehud Olmert's administration, Olmert offered
Mahmoud Abbas an Israeli package of concessions far beyond what any Israeli
leader proposed in the history of the Jewish State.

#2. If Abbas had accepted the outline of PM Olmert's generous offer, it
could have been brought up for approval by Olmert's cabinet to formally tie
the Jewish state to the deal. Additional activities, both in the region and
beyond, could have further locked Israel into PM Olmert's concessions.

#3. But Mahmoud Abbas decided to hold out for even more concessions. And he
did this knowing that elections were going to take place in Israel with a
very real possibility that a Likud lead coalition would replace Kadima.

#4. As a result of the Israeli elections, a Likud lead coalition did indeed
come to power. A coalition that utterly rejects the concessions offered by
PM Olmert.

As a negotiating tactic, Mahmoud Abbas walked away from the Israeli "stall"
in the market, in the expectation that the Israeli would ultimately call him
back offering even greater concessions.

Now this tactic may make sense when negotiating with a stable dictatorship.

But Israel isn't a stable dictatorship.

It is a democracy.

And we changed, via the ballot box, the man in the Israeli "stall".

And the new man in the "stall" has absolutely no obligation to honor the
generous offers that his predecessor made since a deal was never concluded.

In a word, Mahmoud Abbas blew it.

And that's his problem. Not ours.

Here's the puzzle: if Abbas is so confident that his final status demands
enjoy broad international support, and in turn, that the world will consider
Israel's final status offer unacceptably stingy, he has only to gain by
doing everything and anything necessary to expedite entering into final
status talks and getting the Israeli "cards" on the table.

But instead he is burning time dickering over pre-conditions for direct
talks.

There are some reports that Mahmoud Abbas thinks he can manipulate the
situation to ultimately bring about a regime change in Israel.

A word of advice for Mr. Abbas: Your manipulations may indeed lead to a
regime change in Israel. But the odds are that should your manipulations
precipitate a regime change that the change would be a shift to the right
rather than a return of Kadima to the helm.

You blew it when you walked away from Ehud Olmert's "stall".

Don't repeat the mistake with Netanyahu.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il

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