In an open question about the main problems confronting Palestinians which
should be the top priorities of the PA, 26% mentioned the absence of
national unity due to the split, while 15% mentioned the siege and the
closure of the Gaza border crossings, 28% mentioned poverty and
unemployment, 16% mentioned occupation and settlement activities, and 11%
mentioned corruption in some public institutions.

Public support for the PA security crackdown on Hamas in the aftermath of
the attack did not exceed 20% with 76% opposing it.

04 October 2010

PRESS RELEASE

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (37)

After Israeli Return to Settlement Construction: Two Thirds of the
Palestinians in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip Want the Palestinian Side
to Pull Out of the Direct Talks

30 September- 02 October 2010

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center
for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip
between 30 September and 2 October 2010. The poll was conducted directly
after the end of the Israeli moratorium on settlement construction and
during Palestinian debate on the future of direct talks. Few weeks before
the conduct of the poll, Hamas carried out an armed attack near Hebron
leading to the death of four Israeli settlers. This release covers issues
related to the direct talks, the withdrawal of government cars from senior
civil servants, current conditions in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip,
elections, future of reconciliation, Hamas's attack on settlers, and others.
Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127
randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%. While press release
covers public response to the resumption of settlement construction as well
as domestic Palestinian issues, other issues related to the peace process
and Israeli-Palestinian relations will be covered in a separate joint
Palestinian-Israeli press release and later in our detailed report on the
poll. For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or
Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

Main Findings:

Findings of the third quarter of 2010 show a clear majority of two thirds
demanding a Palestinian pull out of the direct negotiations now that
settlement construction has been resumed. Findings also show that a little
over half of the public supports Hamas's armed attack on Israeli settlers
near Hebron, that attack took place on the eve of the Washington launching
of the direct talks. It is worth noting that half of the Palestinians
believe that Hamas's goal was to derail these direct negotiations. It is
also worth noting that the balance of power between Fateh and Hamas, in
terms of popular support for each, has remained unchanged since the second
quarter of this year. In fact, the popularity of President Abbas versus that
of Ismail Haniyeh has improved during this period. This means that Hamas did
not gain greater public sympathy despite popular support for its armed
attack on settlers. It also means that Abbas and Fateh have not lost public
support by going to direct talks that did not enjoy great public support and
by cracking down on Hamas in the aftermath of Hamas's armed attack on
settlers. The overwhelming majority of the public opposed this crackdown.

Findings also show that the public is not optimistic about the chances for
reconciliation between Fateh and Hamas despite the recent Damascus meeting
between the two sides. They also show that about half of the public still
believes that if Hamas wins the next Palestinian elections, the current
split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip will be consolidated while
only one quarter of the public believes the same will happen if Fateh wins
the next elections.

Finally, results show that a clear majority supports the Fayyad government
decision to withdraw government cars from senior civil servants.

(1) Direct Negotiations after Resumption of Settlement Construction:

In light of the resumption of settlement construction, two thirds (66%) of
the public want the Palestinian side to pull out of the direct negotiations
while 30% say it should not pull out of the talks. The percentage of those
who demand a pull out of the talks reaches 62% in the Gaza Strip and 68% in
the West Bank.

(2) Government Cars:

63% support and 32% oppose the decision of the government of Salam Fayyad to
withdraw government cars from senior civil servants. Support for the
decision is higher in the West Bank (68%) than in the Gaza Strip (54%).

(3) Conditions and Performance of Two Governments in the West Bank and the
Gaza Strip:

11% describe conditions in the Gaza Strip as good or very good and 70%
describe them as bad or very bad. By contrast, 33% describe conditions in
the West Bank as good or very good and only 34% describe them as bad or very
bad.

70% say there is corruption in the PA institutions in the West Bank while
only 60% say there is corruption in the institutions of the dismissed
government in the Gaza Strip.

58% say there is, or there is to some extent, press freedom in the West Bank
and 32% say there is no such freedom in the West Bank. But only 36% describe
conditions of democracy and human rights in the PA under President Mahmud
Abbas as good or very good and 33% say they are bad or very bad. Moreover,
only 30% say people in the West Bank can criticize the Palestinian Authority
without fear while 65% say people cannot do that without fear.

By contrast, 42% say there is, or there is to some extent, press freedom in
the Gaza Strip while 43% say there is no such freedom in the Gaza Strip.
Moreover only 24% say people in the Gaza Strip can criticize the authorities
in Gaza without fear and 66% say people cannot do that without fear.

Perceptions of safety and security are almost identical: in the Gaza Strip,
60% say they feel safe and secure in their home these days and only 40% do
not feel safe and secure. In the West Bank, 61% say they feel safe and
secure and 39% do not.

Positive evaluation of the performance of the PA public institutions in the
West Bank reaches 43% and negative evaluation reaches 26%. By contrast,
positive evaluation of the
performance of the public institutions of the dismissed government in the
Gaza Strip reaches 30% and negative evaluation reaches 31%.

29% say that political, security, and economic conditions force them to seek
immigration to other countries. The percentage of those seeking immigration
reaches 37% in the Gaza Strip and 24% in the West Bank.

Positive evaluation of the performance of the dismissed government of Ismail
Haniyeh reaches 36% and negative evaluation reaches 27% while positive
evaluation of the performance of the government of Salam Fayyad reaches 43%
and negative evaluation reaches 25%.

Percentage of satisfaction with the performance of President Abbas reaches
51% and dissatisfaction reaches 45%. Satisfaction is higher in the West Bank
(53%) than in the Gaza Strip (49%).

26% say the government of Haniyeh is the legitimate Palestinian government
and 30% say the Fayyad government is the legitimate one. 30% say both
governments are illegitimate and 9% say the two governments are legitimate.
These results are almost identical to those obtained last June.

(4) Presidency and Legislative Elections:

If new presidential elections are held today, and only two were nominated,
Abbas would receive the vote of 57% and Haniyeh 36% of the vote of those
participating. The rate of participation in such election would reach 61%.
Last June Abbas received 54% and Haniyeh 39%. In the Gaza Strip, Abbas
receives 59% and Haniyeh 37% and in the West Bank Abbas receives 55% and
Haniyeh 35%.

If the presidential elections were between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail
Haniyeh, the former would receive 65% and the latter would receive 30% of
the participants' votes. The rate of participation in this case would reache
70%. In the Gaza Strip, Barghouti receives 67% and Haniyeh 32% and in the
West Bank Barghouti receives 64% and Haniyeh 28%.

Most popular figures selected by the public as possible vice presidents from
a list of five provided to respondents are Marwan Barghouti (selected by 30%
of the public), Ismail Haniyeh (18%), Salam Fayyad (13%) Mustafa Barghouti
(11%), and Saeb Erekat (6%).

If new legislative elections are held today with the participation of all
factions, 69% say they would participate in such elections. Of those who
would participate, 26% say they would vote for Hamas and 45% say they would
vote for Fateh, 12% would vote for all other third parties combined, and 17%
are undecided. These results are identical to those obtained in June. Vote
for Hamas in the West Bank (27%) is higher than the vote it receives in the
Gaza Strip (24%) and vote for Fateh in the Gaza Strip (53%) is higher than
it receives in the West Bank (41%). Percentage of the undecided in the West
Bank reaches 19% and 14% in the Gaza Strip.

(5) Future of Reconciliation after the Damascus Meeting:

In light of the latest Damascus meeting between Fateh and Hamas, the public
is not optimistic about the future of unity between the West Bank and the
Gaza Strip: 30% say the split is permanent, 51% say unity will return but
only after a long time, and only 14% say unity will return soon.

Responsibility for the continued split between the West Bank and the Gaza
Strip is placed on Hamas by 15% of the respondents and on Fateh by 11% and
on both together by 66%.
But when asked about the future of the unity of the West Bank and the Gaza
Strip if Hamas wins new elections, 49% say such a win would consolidate the
split. But if Fateh wins, only 25% say its win would consolidate the split.
Only 17% say a Hamas electoral victory would consolidate unity while 34% say
a Fateh electoral victory would consolidate unity. While the West Bank and
the Gaza Strip are similar in believing that a Hamas victory would
consolidate the split, a major difference between respondents in the two
areas emerges regarding the future of the split in the case of a Fateh
victory: 25% of West Bankers say such a victory would consolidate unity
while 49% of Gazans think it would consolidate unity.

Moreover, findings show that if Hams wins the next presidential and
legislative elections, a majority of 86% believes this would lead to the
consolidation of the siege and boycott on the Palestinian government or
would keep things as they are today. But if Fateh wins the next elections,
37% believe this would lead to the tightening of the siege and blockade or
would keep conditions as they are today. 56% believe that a Fateh victory
would lead to the lifting of the siege and boycott and only 9% believe a
Hamas victory would lead to the lifting of the siege and boycott.

In this regard, what worsens conditions for Hamas is the public belief that
the two issues of national unity and ending the siege should be two of the
most important Palestinian priorities. In an open question about the main
problems confronting Palestinians which should be the top priorities of the
PA, 26% mentioned the absence of national unity due to the split, while 15%
mentioned the siege and the closure of the Gaza border crossings, 28%
mentioned poverty and unemployment, 16% mentioned occupation and settlement
activities, and 11% mentioned corruption in some public institutions.

(6) Burning of Summer Camps and Tourist Installations in the Gaza Strip:

When asked who is behind the wave of burning and destruction of summer camps
and tourist installations in the Gaza Strip, 19% said Hamas groups were the
culprit, 11% said it was groups that have split from Hamas, 18% said it was
radical Islamist groups from outside Hamas. Only 5% said Fateh groups were
behind the wave of attacks while the rest said they do not know or selected
other groups such as Israel (7%) or collaborators (5%).

(7) Hamas's Armed Attack on Settlers:

49% believe that Hamas's motivation behind its latest attack on settlers
near Hebron was to derail the Washington launch of the direct
Palestinian-Israeli negotiations. 39% believe the motivation was to resist
occupation and settlers. The attack led to the death of four settlers. A
majority of 51% supported the Hamas attack and 44% opposed it. Support for
the attack is greater in the Gaza Strip (61%) than in the West Bank where
only a minority of 44% supported it. Public support for the PA security
crackdown on Hamas in the aftermath of the attack did not exceed 20% with
76% opposing it.

(8) Turkey Remains Popular:

In an open question about the regional country most supportive of the
Palestinians, Turkey was selected by 25% of the public, remaining the most
popular among respondents, followed by Egypt with 17%, Syria with 8%, and
Iran and Saudi Arabia with 7% each. These results indicate a reduction in
the percentage of those who selected Turkey from 43% last June and an
increase of those who selected Egypt from 13% during the same period. It is
worth noting that Egypt came first in the Gaza Strip with 30% selecting it.

_________________________________________________________

* This survey was conducted with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung
in Ramallah.

end of press release