[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA:

Again. The stunning truth.

12. What is your opinion of the following statement: “The Palestinians have
not accepted the existence of the State of Israel and would destroy it if
they could”?
Jews: Agree 80.4 Disagree 17.8 I don’t know 1.5 Refuse to answer 0.4

13. What is your opinion of the following statement: “Even if a peace
agreement is signed, the Palestinians will never accept Israel’s existence
and would destroy it if they could”?
Jews: Agree 74.1. Disagree 21.5 I don’t know 3.5 Refuse to answer 0.9

Question: So what are the policy ramifications?]

Peace Index - October, 2010
Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Prof. Tamar Hermann

http://www.idi.org.il/ResearchAndPrograms/peace_index/Documents/October_2010/The%20Peace%20Index%20Data%20-%20October%202010.pdf
Summary of the Findings

• The right time for negotiations? A clear majority (64%) of the Jewish
public thinks now is the right time to return to negotiations with the
Palestinian Authority under U.S. patronage. A larger majority (72%) favors
such negotiations, but only 33% think they are likely to bear fruit.

• Is there a price for extending the construction freeze? A clear
majority (74%) supports Netanyahu’s demand that the Palestinian leadership
recognize Israel as the state of the Jewish people as a condition for
extending the building freeze in the settlements. An overwhelming majority
of the Arab public (79%) opposes this demand.

• Is there a price for peace? In return for a permanent peace with the
Palestinians backed by the United States, half of the Jewish public are
willing to evacuate settlements that lie beyond the large settlement blocs
(a minority of 43% oppose this). However, only a minority (28%) thinks
Israel should sign such an agreement and pay for it by evacuating all of the
settlements in the territories (a majority of 65% oppose such an
evacuation). In the Arab public there is sweeping support (80%) for a full
evacuation in return for a permanent peace.

• And settlers who would want to remain? The Jewish public is evenly
split on the question of whether to enable the settlers to remain in their
homes after an evacuation and the transfer of the territories to the
Palestinian Authority – 47% favor providing such a possibility and 48%
oppose it. The majority of the Arab public (56%) is against it.

• Will the goods be delivered? A large majority (73%) thinks that if an
agreement is signed, the leadership of the Palestinian Authority will not be
able to uphold its commitments because of the opposition of Hamas and other
groups. However, a similar majority (70%) believes that if the Israeli
government signs a peace agreement, it will be able to honor the commitments
it has undertaken despite the opposition of various domestic elements.

• And if one thinks otherwise? A majority (51% vs. 43%) says Lieberman
should be left in place as foreign minister despite the fact that in a
variety of major forums, he has presented views about the renewal of peace
talks that contradict those of Prime Minister Netanyahu. An identical
majority thinks Netanyahu should not dissolve his coalition with Yisrael
Beiteinu on this basis and form a new coalition with Kadima because of
Lieberman's positions.

• What do the Palestinians really want? Today, too, an overwhelming
majority of the Jewish public (80%) thinks that the Palestinians have not
come to terms with Israel’s existence and would destroy Israel if they
could. Moreover, 74% think there will be no change in this position even if
a peace agreement is signed.

• And what is most urgent? In response to the question of what is the
most urgent issue the government needs to deal with, Jewish respondents
ranked the war on corruption and establishment of clean governance (25%) as
most urgent, followed by the following, in descending order: closing the
socioeconomic gaps and achieving peace with the Palestinians (20% in both
cases), promoting economic growth and the standard of living (15%),
strengthening the Jewish character of the country (14%), and strengthening
the country's democratic character (6%). At the top of the Arab public’s
order of urgency are a obtaining a peace agreement (38%), promoting economic
growth and the standard of living (31%), and strengthening the country’s
democratic character (14%).

The Findings in Detail

One of the claims of those opposing the renewal of the political
negotiations is that the idea is good but the timing is poor. Hence, we
looked into what the public thinks about this question. It turns out that a
clear majority (64%) of the Jewish public believes that now is a fitting
time to return to the negotiations with the Palestinian Authority under U.S.
patronage. That view has a majority in the Arab public as well, though
slightly smaller (59%). A segmentation of the answers by the respondents’
self-definition of their degree of religiosity reveals sharp differences:
whereas only one-third of ultra-Orthodox and religious respondents think the
present time is right for negotiations, among traditional and secular
respondents a majority (69% and 74%, respectively) favors the present time
as appropriate for negotiations.

It should be noted, however, that today, as in the past, a large majority of
the Jewish public (72%) favors negotiations, while only 33% believe the
negotiations will bear fruit. The tendency in the Arab public is similar,
although the gap between support and belief is smaller. Here the rate of
support for negotiations is 58% while the rate of confidence in the results
is 38%. In other words, the smaller gap mainly reflects the lower rate of
support in the Arab public.

The Palestinians are currently demanding a freeze on settlement construction
as a condition for renewing talks, while Israel is demanding a payback for a
construction freeze: recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish
people. A large majority of the Jewish public (74%) supports Netanyahu’s
demand for recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people as a
condition for extending the construction freeze in the settlements. Note
that no significant differences were found in the majority that supports
Netanyahu’s position when Jewish respondents were segmented into groups
based on their degree of religiosity. A segmentation by voting patterns
shows that those who reject Netanyahu’s demand only have a majority among
Meretz voters. Not surprisingly, an overwhelming majority of the Arab public
(79%) opposes the demand that Israel be recognized as the state of the
Jewish people, since in their view, such recognition would perpetuate and
aggravate their status as a national minority.

If the two sides were to sit at the table and ultimately come to an
agreement, the question is asked what price the Israelis are prepared to pay
for peace. It emerges that in return for permanent peace with the
Palestinians backed by the United States, half of the Jewish public is ready
to evacuate settlements beyond the large settlement blocs (a large minority
of 43% opposes this). However, only a minority (28%) thinks Israel should
sign such an agreement and evacuate all of the settlements in the
territories (a majority of 65% oppose such an evacuation). When the Jewish
public’s answers to the question of a full evacuation for a permanent peace
agreement are segmented by the parties responded voted for in the 2009
Knesset elections, only among Meretz voters is there unequivocal support for
a total evacuation. Labor voters are evenly split on the issue, and a large
minority (47%) of Kadima voters favors such a tradeoff. In the Arab public,
there is sweeping support (80%) for a full evacuation in return for a
permanent agreement.

As for the possibility of leaving Jewish settlers who want to remain where
they are under Palestinian rule following a peace settlement, the Jewish
public is evenly split on whether to enable settlers to remain in their
homes after an evacuation and transfer of the territories to the Palestinian
Authority: 47% support such a possibility while 48% oppose it. A
segmentation of the Jewish respondents by voting shows that among Kadima,
Labor, and Meretz voters, a majority favors providing settlers with this
type of option, while among voters for the rest of the parties, minorities
of different sizes support it. A majority of the Arab public, though not
large (56%), opposes giving Jewish settlers the option of living under
Palestinian rule.

As for the chances that a peace agreement will actually be implemented, a
large majority of the Jewish public (73%) thinks that if an agreement is
signed, the leadership of the Palestinian Authority will not be able to
uphold its commitments because of opposition from Hamas and other groups. A
similar majority (70%), however, believes that if a peace agreement is
signed, the Israeli government will be able to meet the obligations it
undertakes despite the opposition of various elements. In the Arab public,
however, there is greater balance between the sides: a majority (59%) is
sure or thinks that the Palestinian Authority will be able to uphold the
commitments it undertakes, and a similar majority (53%) thinks the Israeli
government will be able to honor its obligations.

Shortly after Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed his support for renewing
the negotiations, Foreign Minister Lieberman presented a very different
position in his speech to the UN General Assembly and his subsequent
meetings with the foreign ministers of France and Spain. We asked whether in
light of this, Foreign Minister Lieberman should remain in his post. A slim
majority of the Jewish public (51% vs. 43%) thinks Lieberman should be left
in his post as foreign minister despite the fact that he has publicly
presented views that contradict those of Prime Minister Netanyahu. An
identical majority thinks that Netanyahu should not dissolve his coalition
with Yisrael Beiteinu because of Lieberman's positions and form a new
coalition with Kadima. In the Arab public, however, a large majority (67%)
thinks Lieberman should be removed from his post, and a majority (62%)
thinks Netanyahu should replace the alliance with Yisrael Beiteinu with a
coalitional partnership with the Kadima Party.

A considerable part of the answers to the questions above apparently derive
from an overall worldview regarding the intentions of the Palestinians.
Hence, we again asked a question that we have asked many times in the past.
It turns out that today, as in the past, an overwhelming majority of the
Jewish public (80%) believes the Palestinians have not come to terms with
Israel’s existence and would destroy it if they could. Moreover, 74% think
no change will occur in this position even if a peace agreement is signed
with the Palestinians. Among Arab respondents a majority of about 70%
rejected these notions; the majority of Arab respondents think the
Palestinians have accepted Israel’s existence and do not want to destroy it
now or after a peace agreement is signed.

When asked to indicate the most urgent issue for the government to deal with
today, Jewish respondents ranked the war on corruption and the establishment
of clean government (25%) highest. After that, in descending order, their
answers included: closing the socioeconomic gaps and reaching peace with the
Palestinians (20% each), promoting economic growth and the standard of
living (15%), strengthening the Jewish character of the state (14%), and
strengthening Israel's democratic character (6%). At the top of the Arab
public’s order of urgency are the following: reaching peace with the
Palestinians (38%), promoting economic growth and the standard of living
(31%), and strengthening the democratic character of Israel (14%).

A segmentation of the Jewish respondents’ answers to the questions above by
the respondents' self-definition as politically left or right revealed that,
as expected, for those who define themselves as left or moderately left
(only 15% of the entire sample), the issue of highest priority is reaching a
peace agreement (46%), with the next priority being narrowing social gaps
(27%). Among respondents who defined themselves as center
(about one-third of the sample), the highest priority is the war on
corruption (26%), which is immediately followed by achieving a peace
agreement. Among those defining themselves as right or moderately right (46%
of the entire Jewish sample), the war on corruption is in first place (26%),
immediately followed by strengthening Israel’s Jewish character (22%).

The Negotiations Index for October, 2010

The Peace Index project includes ongoing monitoring of the Israeli public's
attitudes towards peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian
Authority. The monthly Negotiation Index is comprised of two questions, one
focusing on public support for peace negotiations and the other on the
degree to which the public believes that such talks will actually lead to
peace. The aggregated replies to these two questions are calculated,
combined, and standardized on a scale of 0-100, in which 0 represents total
lack of support for negotiations and lack of belief in their potential to
bear fruit, and 100 represents total support for the process and belief in
its potential. Each month, the Negotiations Index presents two distinct
findings, one for the general Israeli population and the other for Jewish
Israelis.

General Israeli Population: 52.5

Jewish Israelis: 50.0

The Peace Index is conducted under the auspices of the Evens Program for
Conflict Resolution at Tel Aviv University and the Israel Democracy
Institute. The survey was carried out by telephone from Monday to Wednesday,
18-20 October, 2010, by the Dahaf Institute. The survey included 601
respondents, who constitute a representative sample of the adult population
of Israel. The measurement error for a sample of this size is 4.5%.
Statistical processing: Ms. Yasmin Alkalay. An overview of the findings of
the survey was published in Yediot Aharonot on October 28th, 2010.