MEMRI Special Dispatch |3341 |November 3, 2010

Lebanon

Lebanese Daily: Hizbullah Drills Takeover of Lebanon

On November 1, 2010, the Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar, which is close to
Hizbullah and Syria, reported that on October 28, 2010, Hizbullah conducted
an "electronic and on-the-ground simulation" of a takeover of Lebanon – an
operation that is to be carried out in the event that the international
tribunal for the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq
Al-Hariri indicts Hizbullah.

According to the report, the drill included the deployment of forces
countrywide within two hours, the cordoning off of extensive areas of the
country, the arrest of wanted individuals, and the seizure of ports and
border crossings.

The day after Al-Akhbar reported the story, the London-based Saudi daily
Al-Sharq Al-Awsat stated that the simulation was an illustration of a
practical plan by Hizbullah, Amal and other pro-Syrian forces to take over
Beirut and other parts of the country.

As of this writing, the March 14 Forces have not yet responded to these
reports.

The following is a review of reports from both Al-Akhbar and Al-Sharq
Al-Awsat:

Al-Akhbar: Extensive Security Deployment on the Ground in Under Two Hours

The report on Hizbullah's takeover drill was included in an article in
Al-Akhbar by Fidaa 'Itani. It read: "Before Nasrallah began his short speech
[on October 28, 2010], a major force in one of the opposition's special
units conducted an electronic and on-the-ground simulation of what will
happen at approximately zero hour, on both the security and the political
level.

"The Lebanese simulation – which by chance preceded an Israeli electronic
simulation of a scenario of a future war with Hizbullah reaching [all the
way to] Tel Aviv – was predicated on the international tribunal's release of
an indictment against Hizbullah [in the Al-Hariri assassination].

"[According to the Hizbullah simulation,] as soon as the indictment is
released – or, as others say, even a few hours prior – security and
political forces will be massively deployed, without weapons, gunfire, or
bloodshed, and without harm to civilians or population centers.

"In less than two hours, an extensive and rapid security deployment had
taken place on the ground. A secret security and military cordon of large
areas in the country was completed, including specific targets: political,
security, and military centers, sites, and personnel. Wanted individuals
were pinpointed [and detained] under arrest warrants [issued against them in
Syria], or for their role in attempts to instigate ethnic fanaticism – [and
all this] was carried out during the simulation, within less than two hours.
[The drill also included] specifying the locations or hiding places of these
[wanted] individuals, [to facilitate their] arrest and prevent them from
spreading incitement or moving around.

"[Another part of the simulation was] the seizure of main cities and
sensitive political sites, from the capital and its suburbs all the way to
the Keserwan [Heights] and the North, as well as the seizure of ports and
border crossings, to prevent people from fleeing."

The writer added sarcastically: "It's possible that the prime minister was
unaware that his office and building had been taken over and surrendered to
the [opposition] fighters who were deployed throughout the area, without the
soldiers who guarded him having noticed a thing – [because] isolating him
and preventing him from moving freely had already been carried out in
theory."[1]

Al-Sharq Al-Awsat: Hizbullah, Amal, Pro-Syrian Elements Coordinate Lebanon
Takeover Plan

The next day, the London-based Saudi daily Al-Sharq Al-Awsat wrote that the
simulation reported by Al-Akhbar was "an actual plan drafted on paper and
approved by the relevant persons, one which will be carried out at zero
hour – that is, [when] an indictment [in the case of] the assassination of
former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Al-Hariri is issued."

Citing a knowledgeable Lebanese security source, the daily reported that
"the Lebanese security apparatuses have received information of periodic and
intensive meetings between Hizbullah, Amal, and other Syrian allies, in
which they simulated coordination in the setting of a battle [aimed at]
taking over Beirut and [its] southern approach, and neutralizing other
areas – Christian and Sunni [areas]."

The daily added: "Lebanese sources reported that the meetings focused on
'the division of areas' among these forces, with each group receiving its
own special map for the 'zero hour' confrontation. These forces in turn held
internal organizational meetings, and allocated missions within each team.
According to the information, Beirut was divided into three military zones,
with the missions therein being split primarily among Amal, Hizbullah, and
the Syrian National Socialist Party. Likewise, an alternative plan was drawn
up, under which Hizbullah would provide logistical aid to those forces, in
the case of problems which might prevent the plan from being implemented.

"According to the reports, the zero hour is linked to the release of an
indictment, unless the relevant parties decide to move it up. In any event,
the first scenario was based on the issue of an indictment, at which time
fired-up youth would go out into the main streets, blocking them in protest.
Then the situation would develop into clashes with security forces or with
supporters of the March 14 Forces, particularly of the Al-Mustaqbal stream,
and thus [the Hizbullah, Amal, and pro-Syria] forces would complete the
takeover of the capital."

Al-Sharq Al-Awsat quoted retired Brigadier General Amin Hoteit, who has
close ties to Hizbullah, as calling the Al-Akhbar report "highly realistic."
Hoteit claimed that "Hizbullah's current strategy is based first and
foremost on preventing fitna [civil strife]... and therefore strives [to
maintain] contact and dialogue. If it cannot prevent fitna... it will
attempt to stop it from exploding into anything serious. If it cannot ward
off the explosion, then it will turn to deciding [matters] on the ground...

"Everyone knows that the fitna will be limited geographically to areas with
a Shi'ite presence – Beirut, the central Beq'a, and the south – giving
Hizbullah a chance to decide [matters] without delay. In Beirut, because of
the Shi'ite and [Hizbullah] allies' majority, the situation will be decided
within 24 hours at most... If fitna does break out, Hizbullah will take the
area within three days or a week at most. But it won't end there – because
what happens on the ground will be translated into politics. Then the
equation will reach the point where the indictment issued in the
assassination of [former] prime minister Rafiq Al-Hariri will end the
Al-Hariri era in Lebanon forever."

Al-Sharq Al-Awsat added that although the daily had contacted a senior
official in the organization regarding the matter, "Hizbullah neither denied
nor confirmed the report..." The paper noted that "Amal, which is headed by
Nabih Berri, denied that it had participated in any 'field plan'..."[2]

Al-Akhbar: We Have Proof That the Indictment Is About To Be Released

Both sources noted that the "zero hour" would be when the international
tribunal released the indictment, or even sooner. These reports attest to
the current tension and suspense both within Lebanon and abroad, in
anticipation of the indictment's release. Saudi Arabia and Syria are working
together to arrive at an agreement in this matter, as are other
international key players such as Iran, Egypt, France, and the U.S.

Against this backdrop, Al-Akhbar correspondent Qassim Hamadi wrote that he
had in his possession copies of secret correspondence between the
international tribunal, the Swedish Ministry of Justice, and the Swedish
Embassy in The Hague, showing that the release of the indictment was
imminent.

Hamadi added: "Contrary to what Prime Minister S'ad Al-Hariri told MP Walid
Jumblatt and Hussein Al-Jalil, a political aide to Hizbullah's
secretary-general – [namely] that, according to [Al-Hariri's] information,
the indictment's release has been pushed back to March 2011 – Al-Akhbar has
obtained secret letters sent between the tribunal, the Swedish Justice
Ministry, and the Swedish Embassy at The Hague which reveal that the release
of an indictment is nigh." To further reinforce this claim, he wrote that in
France there was no confirmation of Al-Hariri's claim of the indictment's
postponement until March 2011, and that the U.S. was insisting that an
indictment be released before the end of the year.[3]

In his column in Al-Akhbar, the paper's editor, Ibrahim Al-Amin, also wrote
that the international arena is bustling with unprecedented activity aimed
at arriving at an indictment within a few weeks, if possible.[4]

[1] Al-Akhbar (Lebanon), November 1, 2010.

[2] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), November 2, 2010.

[3] Al-Akhbar (Lebanon), November 1, 2010.

[4] Al-Akhbar (Lebanon), November 1, 2010.

For assistance, please contact MEMRI at memri@memri.org.

The Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) is an independent,
non-profit organization that translates and analyzes the media of the Middle
East. Copies of articles and documents cited, as well as background
information, are available on request.

MEMRI holds copyrights on all translations. Materials may only be used with
proper attribution.

MEMRI
P.O. Box 27837, Washington, DC 20038-7837
Phone: (202) 955-9070
Fax: (202) 955-9077
www.memri.org