Weekly Commentary: Israel cannot afford leaky solutions to coming tsunami
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 31 March 2011

Here is the narrative:

Come September the United Nations is going to decide on the unconditional
establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state encompassing the entire West
Bank (including eastern Jerusalem) and the Gaza Strip.

Most nations will instantly recognize the new state and “nonviolent”
Palestinian mobs (AL: in Palestinian eyes, throwing petrol bombs and heaving
rocks and rebar is just as “nonviolent” as Martin Luther King marching arms
linked in Selma Alabama) make their way to push out the Israeli presence
from sovereign Palestine.

The ensuing Palestinian casualties will be used to justify not only
international sanctions against the Jewish state but also the injection of
foreign forces to protect the Palestinians and supervise the expulsion of
the remaining Jews from sovereign Palestine.

Given that the narrative is being used by Israelis from the Left who are
trying to stampede us into embracing their policy recommendations it is far
from clear just how realistic this apocalyptic scenario is.

But even if we take the narrative at face value, the policy recommendations
being offered by those embracing the narrative don’t jibe with their
predictions.

If the Palestinians are going to get a sovereign Palestinian state
encompassing the entire West Bank (including eastern Jerusalem) and the Gaza
Strip with no strings attached in a few months if they sit back and do
nothing then there is absolutely no offer that Israel can make today that
will prevent the Palestinians from rejecting it so that they can find
themselves at the UN come September, blaming Israel for be failing to
negotiate in good faith and in turn being rewarded with an unconditional
sovereign Palestinian state (with the blessings of a very impatient
President Obama who religiously believes that a sovereign Palestinian state
would miraculously insure peace while his support would earn America brownie
points with the Moslem world).

By the same token, if the Israeli response to the creation of a sovereign
Palestinian state encompassing the entire West Bank (including eastern
Jerusalem) and the Gaza Strip would be for Israel to unilaterally annex the
settlements the reaction of the world would be to simply ignore the move
with the original scenario continuing to play out.

Are we really heading towards an apocalypse in September?

Developments in the region today are so unpredictable that it is certainly
possible that the Palestinian program derails before our September
appointment with destiny.

But it would still be a mistake not to be prepared.

Annexing settlements is neither a serious threat nor an effective response
to a sovereign Palestinian state.

In sharp contrast, annexing the entire West Bank and granting citizenship
and voting rights in a unilateral “one state solution” that leaves the
“refugees” (in quotation marks because unlike other “refugees” who actually
resided themselves in some “homeland” a Palestinian “refugee” can be someone
who never himself resided in the area but who has an ancestor who resided
for some period of time in the area) outside of the state would send
everyone back to their drawing boards.

That makes a unilateral Israeli “one state solution” both a serious threat
that may deter the actors from proceeding to the September tsunami and a
workable plan to implement in the event that it is determined that the
September apocalypse is indeed proceeding.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il