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Saturday, April 23, 2011
Saban Center: Maariv report on war game simulation not correct

In response to a inquiry by IMRA regarding the simulation reported in
Maariv(see below) , Kenneth M. Pollack, Director of the Saban Center for
Middle East Policy responded late Saturday night as follows:

"The Maariv report is entirely INACCURATE. It is factually incorrect. The
simulation demonstrated nothing of the sort. We tried to explain this to the
reporter, but apparently he was not interested.
We will be putting out an accurate account of the simulation and its
findings in the days ahead. You will find it on the Brookings website when
it is out. "

=====
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 22 April 2011

The Saban Center for Middle East Policy advised IMRA today that Kenneth M.
Pollack, Director of the Saban Center, will be issuing a short item in a few
weeks on the war game simulation recently held by the Saban Center in what
was termed a "brainstorming". No additional information is available at this
time.

It is not clear if the results of the simulation, that have profound
ramifications regarding the possibility of meeting Israel's security needs
within the framework of the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state, will
be made available before Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu makes his policy
address to the U.S. Congress this May or before a possible announcement by
President Obama of his own plan (a plan that is apparently based on an
assertion that the Saban Center simulation undermines).

Maariv correspondent Eli Brandstein reported in the 21 April 2011 edition
that a war simulation organized by the Saban Center with the participation
of former senior American officials found that a large international force
of 10,000 deployed in a sovereign Palestinian state could not prevent
Palestinian terror attacks against Israeli targets despite receiving advance
warning from Israel.

The simulation also found that official Palestinian security forces would
not act themselves to prevent the attacks, relying instead on the
ineffective international forces.

To make matters worse, the simulation found that the presence of the
international force in the Palestinian state served to increase friction and
tension between Israel and the United States in a way that impaired security
cooperation between Israel and the United States.

Under the simulation, a sovereign Palestinian state would be created after a
complete Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank with major settlement blocs
annexed by Israel and over 82 settlements evacuated.

The 10,000 man international security force that failed in the simulation
was composed of European soldiers along with some soldiers from Morocco and
Palestinians under American command.

In the simulation the international force enjoyed complete security
authority via a UN mandate with its principle mission being to prevent
terror attacks against Israel.

Maariv did not indicate if any Palestinian state promoters have revised
their position given the results of the simulation given that these result
serve to undermine a key working assumption of those who claim that there
are viable durable workable security arrangements that could be implemented
in the event of the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il

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