Observation: The day after release of Shalit in huge trade
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 26 June 2011

The following is a reasonable prediction of what will happen after Gilad
Shalit is released in a huge trade:

1. Every terrorist group and even freelancers make absolutely every
effort to grab someone to replace Shalit.

2. The country is on high alert due to intelligence reports of plans to
kidnap another soldier.

3. Many of the attempts are foiled.

4. Thursday is a nightmare for both soldiers and their families as
soldiers make their way home for the weekend from their bases. Ditto for
Sunday as soldier return. In both instances the roads are clogged with the
cars of parents who opted to transport their children themselves rather than
rely on public transportation.

5. Within a relatively short period, a soldier is dragged off the streets
of Israel but the terrorists kill the soldier because they find that they
are unable to hide him.

6. Ultimately one of the kidnappings succeeds when a soldier dragged off
the streets reaches Gaza after being smuggled out to Egypt – all this before
it is even certain that a soldier is actually missing.

7. The IDF carries out various attacks but since Israeli intelligence is
clueless as to where the soldier is being held and since Israel wants to
avoid condemnation at this time for a massive operation, most efforts to
gain the release of the captured soldier are diplomatic and via PR.

8. The country is depressed, frustrated and there are articles in the
paper that many families with children slated to enter the IDF are seeking
ways to keep their kids out of the army.

9. There are calls to meet the demands of the terrorists to gain the
release of the new kidnapped soldier.

10. Some former senior defense-intelligence officials issue a call to
release all terrorists now being held by Israel once they have been
interrogated for information so that there is no longer any reason for the
terrorists to kidnap Israelis.

11. Under the banner “Peace Now: For the safety of our soldiers” former
senior defense-intelligence officials issue a call for Israel to make every
and any conciliation required to reach a final status agreement with the
Palestinians.

The above series of events might not transpire, but the odds that they do
are magnitudes greater than optimistic scenarios.

The former senior defense-intelligence officials who assert that Israel
knows how to deal with security threats are correct. There will be security
alerts, etc. but none of these activities will stop the kidnapping from
taking place with every terrorist group and even freelancers making
absolutely every effort to grab someone to replace Shalit.

Now that’s not to say that the recommendation of the former senior
defense-intelligence officials who are pushing for Israel to carry out the
trade aren’t right.
Its just that they should have the intellectual honesty to concede where we
may find ourselves after the deal.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il