Weekly Commentary: Egyptian force enhancement in Sinai under conditions of
regime uncertainty

Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 1 September 2011

Let’s keep this simple:

We have absolutely no idea who will be ruling Egypt in the near future.

That’s “near future”.

So policy recommendations vis-à-vis Egyptian force deployments in the Sinai
in excess of the treaty that hinge their reasoning on the composition,
intentions, or anything else of the currently ruling military regime are
grossly short sighted.

Short sighted and irresponsible.

If anything, any policy recommendation on this matter must answer the
following critical question:

What impact will there be on Israel’s security if Israel accepts Egyptian
force deployment “X” in the Sinai in excess of the treaty and the regime
ruling Egypt decides to support a military campaign against the Jewish
State – either by actively participating in an invasion or by engaging in
various maneuvers within Egypt that force Israel to divert military
resources from other fronts facing an invasion.

That’s not to say that Israel must rule out any and all changes in the
agreement.

Just that it must do it with eyes wide open, fully aware of the potential
ramifications of the move.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il