Poll: Barak 1.5, Deri 1.5 and Lapid 2 parties (vote burners?) - National
camp 66-67 seats

Dr. Aaron Lerner Date 27 September 2011

Parties must to receive 2% of the valid votes (equivalent to 2.4 seats) in
order to enter the Knesset.

The poll below indicates that the great hopes of the Left - Deri and Lapid -
will not have a significant impact on the election outcome. If anything,
these two parties, along with Ehud Barak's party, might not make it into the
Knesset altogether, effectively "burning" several seats that might have gone
to left wing parties that do manage to garner 2% of the vote.

1. The survey was commissioned by The Orly & Guy Morning Program - Channel
10 TV and conducted by telephone on 26 September 2011 at various times of
the day among a random sample of 505 respondents, constituting a
representative sample of Israel's adult population (aged 18 and over -
including Israeli Arabs).
Maximum sampling error is 4.5% with respect to various estimates.

2. The survey was conducted by Maagar - Interdisciplinary Research and
Consulting Institute Ltd., managed by Professor Yitzhak Katz.

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats)

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

------ 17.0 [28] Kadima headed by Livni
13.0 ------ [28] Kadima headed by Mofaz
28.0 27.0 [27] Likud
21.0 19.0 [13] Labor headed by Shelley Yichimovitz
01.5 01.5 [---] Ehud Barak Independence Party
09.0 09.0 [11] Shas
17.0 17.0 [15] Yisrael Beiteinu
03.0 03.0 [03] Jewish Home/NRP)
06.0 06.0 [05] Yahadut Hatorah
05.0 04.0 [03] Meretz
01.5 01.5 [---] Party lead by Arieh Deri
04.0 04.0 [04] National Union
09.0 09.0 [11] Arab parties
02.0 02.0 [---] Party lead by Yair Lapid

National camp total: 67 if Kadima lead by Mofaz and 66 if Kadima lead by
Livni

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il