[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA:

"Six Israeli Arabs will return to their homes. Most of them have already
served long sentences or are no longer young."

Three scenarios with very different consequences regarding future relations
between Israeli Jews and Arabs when they return:

#1. Welcomed by family - community neutral.

#2. Welcomed by community with claim that the Arabs were not actually
guilty of what they were serving time for and thus their release is simply a
matter of justice.

#3. Welcomed by community as heroes for what they did.]

The Meir Amit
Intelligence and Terrorism
Information Center
October 12, 2011

The Agreement for the Liberation of Abducted
Israeli Soldier Gilad Shalit – Initial Report 1

Overview

1. On October 11, 2011, the Israeli government held a special meeting where
a large majority (26 in favor, three against) voted in favor of the
agreement with Hamas for the release of abducted IDF soldier Gilad Shalit,
held in Hamas captivity without Red Cross visits since June 2006. The
agreement was supported by the heads of the Israeli defense establishment,
including the Chief of Staff, the head of the Israel Security Agency and the
head of the Mossad.

2. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began the meeting with the announcement
that an agreement had been reached which would "return Gilad Shalit to
Israel alive and well." According to an announcement, the negotiations,
which were held in the past with the German mediator, were renewed in recent
weeks in Cairo with Egyptian government mediation. They led to the
initialing of an agreement on Thursday, October 6, and on October 11 the
final agreement was signed.2

3. There was, said Netanyahu, "an inbuilt tension between the desire to
bring back an abducted soldier, or citizen, and the need to maintain the
security of the citizens of Israel...
The agreement I am bringing to the Government expresses the right balance
between all of these considerations"3 (ITIC emphasis). The government
decision authorizing the agreement was based on recognition of the fact that
the recent dramatic events in the Middle East opened, for a short time, a
window of opportunity during which, for the first time, Hamas agreed to be
more flexible than in the past. The Israeli concern was that not exploiting
the opportunity might endanger Gilad Shalit's welfare and future.

4. The Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported that David Meidan, the prime
minister's special negotiator, said that Israel had accepted Hamas'
assurances that Gilad Shalit would be restored safe and well and that his
health was good (Haaretz, October 12, 2011).

Initial Report on the Contents of the Agreement

5. The following are the facts currently known about the agreement, based on
authoritative Israeli defense and political sources:

1) Gilad Shalit will be liberated in return for the release of 1027
Palestinian terrorists, including 27 women terrorists.

2) The terrorists will be released in two stages: the first stage of 450,
plus 27 women terrorists; and the second stage of 550 terrorists, the list
of whose names o be determined by Israel.

3) Information about the first 450 terrorists:

A. One hundred and ten yes will be released to Judea and Samaria and East
Jerusalem. Half of them will be subject to security restrictions. Among them
are 57 Hamas terrorist operatives; the rest belong to Fatah and other
terrorist organizations. During negotiations the final number of terrorists
released to Judea and Samaria was reduced from 200 to 110.

B. Two hundred and three terrorist operatives, residents of Judea and
Samaria, will be sent to the Gaza Strip or abroad.

C. One hundred thirty-one terrorists will return to the Gaza Strip.

D. Six Israeli Arabs will return to their homes. Most of them have already
served long sentences or are no longer young.

4) Twenty-five of the 27 women terrorist operatives will be permitted to
return to their homes. Two of them will be deported, one to the Gaza Strip
and one abroad. The two who will be deported are:

A. Amna Muna: The terrorist responsible for the seduction, abduction and
murder of Israeli teenager Ofir Rahum, 16, from Ashqelon, whom she met on
the Internet in 2001.

B. Ahlam Tamimi: Drove the suicide bomber who blew himself up at the Sbarro
restaurant in Jerusalem to the target. The attack killed 15 people.

5) Among those to be released in the first stage are 279 prisoners sentenced
to life imprisonment.

6) Several leaders and high-ranking terrorist operatives, most of them from
Hamas, two from Fatah and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine,
will not be released:

A. Marwan Barghouti: Was formerly head of Fatah's Tanzim in Judea and
Samaria. Responsible for many terrorist attacks, including the attack in Sea
Food Market restaurant in Tel Aviv, the explosion in the Armon David banquet
hall in Hadera and the attack at the Ben-Yehuda street mall in Jerusalem.
Sentenced to five consecutive terms of life imprisonment and 40 additional
years in prison after having been found guilty of five counts of murder and
attempted murder.

B. Abdallah Barghouti: Was an important Hamas operative who manufactured
IEDs for suicide bombing attacks. Convicted of involvement in many
mass-casualty attacks, among them the attack at Cafe Moment and the Sbarro
restaurant in Jerusalem. Also involved in the suicide bombing attack on the
#4 bus in Tel Aviv and at the Sheffield Club in Rishon Letzion. His
terrorist activities resulted in the deaths of 66 people. Sentenced to 67
consecutive terms of life imprisonment.

C. Ibrahim Hamed: Was commander of Hamas' military-terrorist wing in Judea
and Samaria. Convicted, among other things, of responsibility for the
suicide bombing attacks in Zion Square, Cafe Moment and Cafe Hillel in
Jerusalem. Also involved in the attack at a bus stop used by soldiers near a
military base southeast of Tel Aviv and the attack at the club in Rishon
Letzion.

D. Abbas Sayyid: Was Hamas commander in Tulkarm. Responsible for dispatching
the suicide bomber who blew himself up at the Passover Seder in the Park
Hotel in Netanya in 2002, killing 30 Israeli civilians; Israel responded
with Operation Defensive Shield. Sentenced to 35 consecutive terms of life
imprisonment.

E. Ahmed Saadat: Was head of the PFLP in Judea and Samaria. Responsible for
the murder of Israeli Minister Rehavam Zeevi. Sentenced to 30 years in
prison.

F. Jamal Abu al-Hajah: High-ranking member of Hamas' military-terrorist wing
in Jenin. Responsible for the suicide bombing attack in Safed in 2002, which
killed nine Israeli civilians. Sentenced to nine consecutive terms of life
imprisonment.

G. Hassan Salameh: Was one of the heads of Hamas' military-terrorist wing in
Judea and Samaria. Planned the wave of attacks in Israel after Israel killed
Hamas operative Yehya Ayash, "the engineer." Among the suicide bombing
attacks he planned were two on #18 buses in Jerusalem and one at a bus stop
at the Ashqelon Junction. Responsible for the deaths of 46 people and the
wounding of scores more. Sentenced to 38 consecutive terms of life
imprisonment.

6. Some of the terrorist operatives released will be subject to security
restrictions, which will include a ban on leaving for abroad and a ban on
entering Israeli territory. Terrorists living in East Jerusalem will be
forbidden from entering Judea and Samaria and they will have to present
themselves to the police every week. They will also have to commit
themselves in writing not to engage in activities against the State of
Israel, and whoever violates the commitment will be punished by Israel.

The Negotiations Leading to the Agreement

7. Correspondents were briefed by Yoram Cohen, head of the Israel Security
Agency, and David Meidan, the prime minister's special envoy to the
negotiations, and were told the following (quoted by the Walla and Haaretz,
Israeli websites, October 11, 2011):

1) During the past few months six rounds of secret negotiations were held.
Last week, on October 5, the final round was held in Egypt and a draft was
initialed for finalizing the agreement; it did not include the names of
prisoners. Three days ago one more round of negotiations began, ending on
the morning of October 11 after 24 hours of deliberations.

2) The breakthrough came after Hamas altered its position in July 2011. The
first change was the agreement that certain important terrorists from Judea
and Samaria would not be released. The second was a reduction in the
quantity of those to be released to their homes in Judea and Samaria to a
number Israeli security could digest.

3) The agreement was signed with in an Egyptian presence. David Meidan, the
Israeli prime minister's envoy, praised the Egyptian mediator, saying that
"the Egyptian mediator coerced both us and Hamas. The Egyptians deserve high
praise for carrying out the agreement." He also praised the work of German
mediator Gerhard Konrad, despite the fact that Hamas had rejected his
proposal.

4) David Meidan signed the agreement for Israel, and Nizar Awadallah signed
for Hamas. (Note: Nizar Awadallah is a member of Hamas' political bureau.)
Present in the Hamas delegation was Ahmed Jaabari, head of Hamas'
military-terrorist wing in the Gaza Strip, but he did not sign. (Note:
According to the October 12 edition of the Arabic newspaper Al-Hayat, Ahmed
Jaabari led the Hamas delegation.)

5) The head of the Israel Security Agency said that his ability, as head of
the service, to recommend the agreement came because a total of 110
terrorists would be released to Judea and Samaria, 55 of them Hamas
operatives, and the rest would leave the area. "That does not mean that they
will not be active," he said, "but the security risk will be reduced. We
chose those who present security challenge we are capable of dealing with."
He said that there would be restrictions on the movement of half of those
who will be released to Judea and Samaria, they will be forbidden to leave
the country, and will be subject to other restrictions.

Hamas' Reaction

8. On October 11, 2011, Khaled Mashaal, head of Hamas' political bureau in
Damascus gave a speech concerning the agreement. It was broadcast on four
main Palestinian channels: Al-Aqsa TV, Al-Quds TV, the Palestinian
Authority's PTV and the Paltoday website.

9. The main points of Khaled Mashaal's speech were the following:

1) After five years of difficult negotiations, with Egyptian mediation the
exchange agreement was achieved. In return for Gilad Shalit 1000 male and 27
female Palestinian prisoners will be released in two stages. Within a week,
450 will be released in the first stage, and 550 within two months
thereafter.

2) The agreement is a "great achievement" for Hamas, both "quantitatively
and qualitatively." Thus, after the agreement no female prisoners will
remain in Israeli jails. Another illustration of the the extent of the
"achievement" was that 315 of the 450 who will be released in the first
stage had been sentenced to life imprisonment, some of them to one term and
some to ten. Other prisoners who will be released were sentenced to long
terms of dozens of years.

3) The agreement illustrated the unity of the Palestinian people and was a
"national Palestinian achievement." The list of prisoners to be released
included prisoners from the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, Jerusalem, Israel
("the 1948 territory") the Golan Heights and the Palestinian dispersal. It
also included all the factions [i.e., all the Palestinian terrorist
organizations] and not only those who abducted Gilad Shalit.

4) Unfortunately, Hamas had not been able to include all 8000 prisoners,
thus "our joy is mixed with pan and sorrow." However, the agreement was what
Israel could be forced to do for the return of one captured soldier. He
stressed that Hamas was committed to continuing its efforts to release all
the Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, and that "who releases 1027 will
release 8000 more..."

5) Khaled Mashaal thanked those who had helped effect the agreement, among
them Hamas' Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, and the other organizations which
participated in the action in which Gilad Shalit was captured. He thanked
Egypt and its General Security Service, which, he said, had "fulfilled its
national duty." He also thanked countries and individuals who helped
complete the agreement, especially Qatar, Turkey and Syria. At the end he
also thanked the German mediator.

10. Other high-ranking Hamas figures also repeatedly represented the
agreement as a "historic achievement" and a "great victory" for the
"Palestinian resistance" [i.e., the terrorist organizations], and as a
"crushing blow" for Israel. Ismail Haniya, head of the de-facto Hamas
administration in the Gaza Strip, said that he had spoken with the Muslim
Brotherhood's General Guide in Egypt, who had blessed the Palestinians on
their historic moment (Al-Quds TV, October 11, 2011).

11. Abu Attaya, spokesman for the Salah al-Din Brigades of the Popular
Resistance Committees' military wing, said that Gilad Shalit's abduction
would not be the last, but that other actions would follow of abducting
Israeli soldiers, "until all the prisoners have been released from Israeli
jails" (Popular Resistance Committees website).

The Palestinian Authority's Reaction

12. Mahmoud Abbas, currently visiting South America, praised the agreement,
saying that the Palestinians had waited for it for a long time. He said he
hoped all the Palestinian prisoners would be released from Israeli jails and
complimented Egypt on its mediation (Al-Hayat Al-Jadeeda, October 12, 2011).

13. Yasser Abd Rabbo, secretary of the PLO's executive committee, said that
the Palestinians prisoners' hunger strike and the support they received
contributed to the finalization of the agreement. He praised the
organizations which participated in realizing the agreement (without
mentioning Hamas by name), as well as Egypt and Europe (Palestinian TV,
October 11, 2011).

1 Supplement to the October 11, 2011 weekly update, as of 10:00 a.m.,
October 12.

2 Statements by Benjamin Netanyahu at the beginning of the special
government session.

3 Ibid.