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Thursday, October 13, 2011
AWRAD poll of Palestinians: Support for Abbas (trounces Barghouthi) and Fatah rise

[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA: For the first time, Mahmoud Abbas clobbers Marwan
Barghouthi in a poll of Palestinians.

Consider the results for the West Bank:
Out of the following list of leaders, who do you trust the most?
M. Abbas 42.9%
Marwan Bargouthi 16.7% ]

Arab World for Research & Development
Ramallah Ė Gaza, Palestine
Tele-fax: 00970-2-2950957/8
E-mail: awrad@awrad.org
Website: www.awrad.org
Publication Date: 13 October 2011
Fieldwork: 2-4 October 2011
Sample Size: 1200 Palestinians in the West Bank & Gaza
Margin of error: + 3 %
http://www.awrad.org/etemplate.php?id=253&x=4

Section 1: UN Initiative

1- Do you support or oppose the current Palestinian pursuit for state
recognition at the UN?
Support 64.6%
Neutral 18.5%
Oppose 15.9%
Donít know 1.0%

2- Do you believe that the Palestinian cause has been advanced by this
initiative?
Advanced 36.6%
Set back 16.6%
Not changed 44.3%
Donít know 2.6%

3- Did you listen to the speech delivered by President M. Abbas at the UN
on 23 October 2011?
Yes, in full 40.3%
Yes, in part 39.0%
No 20.7%

[IMRA: The original report does not include the question that goes with the
answers]
Excellent 39.9%
Good 31.0%
Average 14.7%
Weak 4.8%
Very weak 2.3%
Donít know 7.4%

4- How do you evaluate the position of Hamas on the UN initiative?
Positive 11.9%
Average 33.0%
Negative 44.7%
Donít know 10.4%

5- What should be the next political step by the Palestinian leadership
with respect to statehood?
Continue to pursue recognition through the UN Security Council 59.0%
Seek official observer status from the UN General Assembly 12.2%
Abandon the UN initiative and return to the negotiation table immediately
13.0%
Donít know 15.8%

6- Which of the following do you believe will result from the UN
initiative?
Palestinian negotiating position will be strengthened 58.2%
Palestinian negotiating position will be weakened 4.4%
Nothing will change 32.6%
Donít know 4.8%

7- In the context of the Palestinian UN initiative, how do you view the
following actors?

Turkey More positive 68.2%
Stayed the same 25.1%
Less positive 4.4%
Donít know 2.2%
Egypt
More positive 50.6%
Stayed the same 32.3%
Less positive 13.3%
Donít know 3.8%
Arab League
More positive 43.2%
Stayed the same 37.1%
Less positive 16.4%
Donít know 3.3%
Jordan
More positive 38.3%
Stayed the same 39.6%
Less positive 18.0%
Donít know 4.1%

U.N (General Assembly)
More positive 26.1%
Stayed the same 36.9%
Less positive 33.1%
Donít know 3.9%
EU
More positive 24.8%
Stayed the same 39.6%
Less positive 31.3%
Donít know 4.3%
UN Security Council
More positive 19.9%
Stayed the same 37.8%
Less positive 36.7%
Donít know 5.7%
U.S.A
More positive 6.1%
Stayed the same 22.3%
Less positive 69.0%
Donít know 2.6%
Israel
More positive 2.3%
Stayed the same 15.9%
Less positive 79.7%
Donít know 2.1%

8- In the context of the Palestinian UN initiative, how do you view the
following actors?
Mahmoud Abbas
More positive 66.4%
Stayed the same 24.9%
Less positive 7.7%
Donít know 1.0%
PLO
More positive 66.3%
Stayed the same 25.8%
Less positive 6.6%
Donít know 1.3%
Palestinian National Authority
More positive 63.4%
Stayed the same 26.4%
Less positive 9.1%
Donít know 1.1%
Total
Fatah
More positive 61.3%
Stayed the same 28.3%
Less positive 8.8%
Donít know 1.6%
Salam Fayyad
More positive 48.9%
Stayed the same 36.6%
Less positive 10.6%
Donít know 3.9%
Ismael Haniyeh
More positive 17.9%
Stayed the same 37.4%
Less positive 39.8%
Donít know 4.9%
Hamas
More positive 14.8%
Stayed the same 37.7%
Less positive 42.8%
Donít know 4.8%

9- Do you believe that Palestinians are capable of surviving a decrease
in international funding as a result of the UN initiative?
Yes 29.2%
Maybe 26.4%
No 41.8%
Donít Know 2.7%

10- Are you willing to personally sacrifice (a decrease in your income or
salary) in order to reduce Palestinian dependency on foreign aid?
Yes 35.4%
To a certain extent 27.7%
No 33.8%
Donít Know 3.1%

11- Do you think that Israel is serious about its threats to cut off
Palestinian tax money due to the Palestinian leadership's decision to resort
to the U.N?
Yes 71.4%
No 23.5%
Donít Know 5.1%

12- Do you think that the US is serious about its threats to cut off
financial aid to the PA due to the Palestinian leadership's decision to
resort to the U.N?
Yes 67.3%
No 26.9%
Donít Know 5.8%

Section 2: Peace Process/Negotiations

13- Do you personally support or oppose a two-state solution (Israel and
Palestine - in the WBG including East Jerusalem)?

Support 61.2%
Oppose 35.3%
Don't know 4.8% 1.3% 3.5%

14- Do you believe that the following parties are serious about peace
negotiations leading to the establishment of an independent Palestinian
state?
Palestinian National Authority Yes 81.2%
To some extent 13.1%
No 5.4%
Donít know 0.3%

EU
Yes 23.3%
To some extent 41.4%
No 31.2%
Donít know 4.2%

UN member states Yes 20.2%
To some extent 40.2%
No 35.9%
Donít know 3.8%

USA Yes 6.2%
To some extent 17.3%
No 74.7%
Donít know 1.8%

Israel Yes 3.0%
To some extent 10.6%
No 85.7%
Donít know 0.8%

15- Do you support a return to the negotiations between Palestinians and
Israel at this time?
Yes unconditionally 5.5%
Yes, conditionally (after a halt to settlement construction) 58.0%
No 29.7%
Neutral 6.8%

16- In your opinion, which one of the following is the best means to end
the occupation and establish a Palestinian state?
Negotiations to reach an agreement between the two parties 21.1%
An international conference that imposes a settlement on 20.8%
A non-violent popular uprising 16.8%
Armed/militant confrontations 16.6%
A mix of non-violent and militant means 21.1%
Others 1.0%
Donít Know 2.7%

17- Do you believe that the American government is a neutral party in the
negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis?
Yes 7.9%
To some extent 12.1%
No 78.3%
Donít know 1.7%

18- In general, do you believe that President Obama is capable of
establishing a Palestinian state?
Yes 22.0%
To some extent 20.6%
No 55.2%
Donít know 2.2%

19- Do you have more or less hope for the peace process now compared to
one year ago?
More hope 44.1%
Less hope 49.4%
Donít know 6.5%

20- 20 years after the negotiations started, do you feel that
Palestinians are closer or farther from achieving their goal of establishing
a Palestinian state?
Closer 49.4%
Farther 41.7%
Donít know 8.8%

Section 3: Internal issues/Priorities

21- At this time, what should be the top internal priority of the
government?
Forming a unity government 43.2%
Improving the performance of the Palestinian economy and creating jobs
32.3%
Conducting municipal, PLC and presidential elections 15.8%
Enhancing the institutions of the Palestinian state in the West Bank and
Gaza Strip 7.4%
Others 0.8%
Donít know 0.6%

22- Do you agree/disagree with a recent statement by Palestinian
officials (e.g., PM Fayyad) that the performance of Palestinian institutions
improved significantly during the last two years?
Agree 32.6%
To some extent 32.9%
Disagree 27.5%
Don't know 7.0%

23- In general, how do you rate the overall performance of President
Mahmoud Abbas?
Good 55.2%
Average 29.2%
Poor 14.2%
Donít know 1.4%

24- In general, how do you rate the overall performance of Prime Minister
Salam Fayyad?
Good 40.9%
Average 36.4%
Poor 19.6%
Donít know 3.1%

25- In general, how do you rate the overall performance of Ismael
Haniyah?
Good 20.1%
Average 37.6%
Poor 35.4%
Donít know 6.9%

26- If you had to choose the next prime minister for a national unity
government from the following candidates, who would you chose?
S. Fayyad 31.7%
Mustafa Bargouthi 15.9%
I Haniyeh 13.3%
Munib Masri 7.1%
Nabil Shaath 3.3%
Jamal Al Khudari 3.2%
Other 3.3%
Not sure 22.3%

27- Do you believe that there is a need for a new political party between
Hamas and Fateh?
Yes 36.4%
To some extent 19.8%
No 39.8%
Donít know 3.9%

Section 4: Elections

28- In your opinion, when should local elections be held?
Immediately 13.3%
Within six months 18.1%
As soon as Fatah and Hamas have reconciled 58.6%
Elections should remain on hold 5.1%
Don't know 4.9%

29- In your opinion, when should national (Presidential and PLC)
elections be held?
Immediately 12.8%
Within six months 18.4%
As soon as Fatah and Hamas have reconciled 59.6%
Elections should remain on hold 4.4%
Don't know 4.8%

30- If PLC elections took place today and the following lists were
running, which one would you vote for?
Fatah 38.3%
Hamas 9.6%
PFLP 4.5%
Al Mubadara 3.0%
PPP 1.4%
DFLP 1.3%
Third Way 0.9%
Islamic Jihad 0.9%
Feda 0.3%
Popular Struggle 0.2%
Hizb Tahreer 0.2%
Other 2.8%
undecided 21.5%
I will not vote 15.1%

31- Now I will give you different lists of leaders. For each list, please
tell us who do you trust the most?
First list: Out of the following list of leaders, who do you trust the most?
West Bank
M. Abbas 42.9%
Marwan Bargouthi 16.7%
Salam Fayyad 4.8%
Nabil Shaath 1.1%
M. Dahlan 0.5%
Naser Al Qudwi 0.9%
Jibril Rojoub 0.7%
Ahmad Qurie 0.5%
None of the above 21.2%
Donít Know 10.7%

Gaza
M. Abbas 29.8%
Marwan Bargouthi 33.3%
Salam Fayyad 6.7%
Nabil Shaath 5.1%
M. Dahlan 3.8%
Naser Al Qudwi 0.9%
Jibril Rojoub 0.2%
Ahmad Qurie 0.2%
None of the above 18.2%
Donít Know 1.8%

Total
M. Abbas 38.0%
Marwan Bargouthi 22.9%
Salam Fayyad 5.5%
Nabil Shaath 2.6%
M. Dahlan 1.8%
Naser Al Qudwi 0.9%
Jibril Rojoub 0.5%
Ahmad Qurie 0.4%
None of the above 20.1%
Donít Know 7.3%

Second list: Out of the following list of leaders, who do you trust the
most?
Ismael Haniyeh 19.5%
Naser Al Din Alshaer 9.0%
Khaled Mashaal 5.2%
Aziz Duweik 4.7%
Jamal Al Khudari 3.3%
Hassan Yusef 2.8%
Mahmoud Zahhar 2.6%
Ahmad Bahar 0.8%
None of the above 38.7%
Donít Know 13.4%
Third list: Out of the following list of leaders, who do you trust the most?
Salam Fayyad 24.7%
Mustafa Barghouthi 22.7%
Ahmad Saadat 9.4%
Hanan Ashrawi 6.4%
Basam Salhi 2.0%
Qais Abdelkarim 0.6%
Zahira Kamal 0.3%
Ahmad Majdalni 0.3%
None of the above 23.7%
Donít Know 10.1%

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