Weekly Commentary: Dangerous To Dismiss The Belief System Of The Twelver
Shiites Ruling Iran

Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 11 November 2011

Does the Iranian leadership really believe what they profess to believe?

The overwhelming majority of the analysis and recommendations prepared for
Western policy makers has hinged on the assumption that they aren’t.

Take for example a simulation organized last May 16 by the Lauder School of
Government to consider, among other things, how a nuclear Iran would act.
Former head of the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate Maj. Gen (res.)
Zeevi Farkash participated in that simulation playing the role of Iranian
Supreme leader Ali Khamenei. Khamenei is a "Twelver Shiite"—as is Iranian
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and as such believes that incinerating Israel
with nuclear weapons—even if followed by the incineration of Iran—would be a
positive thing because the apocalyptic result would bring the return of the
Hidden Imam.

But Farkash apparently maintains that deep down inside Ayatollah Khamenei
actually subscribes to some sort of universal value system that considers
the incineration of Iran an unacceptable outcome rather than a reasonable
price to pay for the return of the Mahdi. As a result, the simulation found
that Iran would only brandish its nukes for deterrence and never actually
use them. As Farkash put it, "Iran would regard its bomb as a means of
self-defense and strategic balance."

Was Farkash's critical assumption correct?

Perhaps a more responsible approach would have been to run the simulation
both ways to see how things play out in a world where the leaders of Iran
genuinely believe what they claim to believe. It might have turned out that
the results were so catastrophic that even if there were only a 10 percent
chance that these Twelvers are true believers, policymakers would have to
adjust their recommendations to account for it.

Again, if the purpose of the exercise is to find temporary comfort, then we
can all simply join the retired military Israeli intelligence head, who
apparently sleeps well, confident that the Twelvers leading Iran are faking
their religious belief in the return of the Mahdi.

But if the purpose of the exercise is to genuinely address the possible
consequences of a nuclear Iran, policy makers would be remiss if they did
not very seriously consider the possibility that the leaders of Iran
genuinely believe what they claim to believe.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il