[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA:

The Peace Index asks "In principle, what is more important to you: That
Israel be a state with a Jewish majority or that Judea and Samaria always
remain under Israel's control even if they are areas with a large
Palestinian population? " Put another way: let's not allow the
demographic data and trends interfere with the last argument left for a
Palestinian state, the demographic argument.

As for the discussion of equality, let's put the cards on the table. The
Israeli Arabs intellectuals aren't shy about what they have in mind when
they talk of "equality": it isn't jobs and it isn't budget allocations.
When they say "equality" what they mean is that Diaspora Jews should not
have the right to move to Israel and become citizens simply because they are
Jews.]

The Peace Index: December 2011
Date Published: 04/01/2012
Survey dates: 26/12/2011 - 28/12/2011
The Peace Index is a project of the Evens Program for Conflict Resolution
at Tel Aviv University and the Israel Democracy Institute
www.peaceindex.org Email: info@peaceindex.org

Summary of the Findings

Is there public support for price-tag actions against Palestinians?
Fifty-seven percent of Jewish respondents think that a majority of the
Israeli Jewish public opposes price-tag actions against Palestinians. Ten
percent believe that a majority supports these actions, and about
one-quarter see the public as divided. Among Arab respondents, the
prevailing view (42%) is that the Jewish majority supports these actions,
while only 25% think the majority opposes them (the remaining respondents
take positions between these two positions or do not know).

Is there public support for price-tag actions against the IDF? In this case,
close to 90% of the Jewish public sees the majority of the Jewish public as
opposing price tag actions. Only 48% of the Arab public, however, believes
the Jewish majority opposes these actions, while 44% of Arab respondents say
the Jewish public is evenly split between support and opposition.

How do the respondents see the settlers’ positions on price-tag actions
against Palestinians? Forty-six percent of the Jewish respondents think that
the majority of settlers oppose price-tag actions, 27.5% think that
approximately half support these actions and about half oppose them, and 19%
believe that most settlers support these actions. Arab respondents take the
opposite view: 51% see the majority of settlers supporting actions against
Palestinians, and 21% think half of settlers support them. About a quarter
of Arab respondents say that the majority of settlers oppose price-tag
actions against Palestinians.

What is the settlers’ stance on price-tag actions against the IDF? A
majority of the Jewish respondents (71%) think that the majority of settlers
oppose price-tag actions against the IDF. The prevailing opinion (41%) among
the Arab respondents was also that most settlers oppose actions against the
IDF. However, 21% of Arab respondents think half of settlers support such
actions against the army and half oppose them, while 29% see the majority of
settlers as supporting these actions.

Are the government’s measures against the perpetrators of price-tag actions
appropriate? The most common opinion today (48%) among Jewish respondents is
that the authorities are dealing with the perpetrators too leniently, about
a third (30%) regard the measures as appropriate, and 12% consider them too
harsh. As for the Arab respondents, 70% think the authorities are dealing
with price-tag perpetrators too leniently.

Was the prime minister right when he decided not to define the price-tag
perpetrators as "terrorists"? The Jewish public is split (47%–46%) on this
question. A clear majority (72%) of the Arab respondents, however, think or
are sure that the prime minister made the wrong choice.

A Jewish majority or rule in Judea and Samaria? We asked: In principle, what
is more important to you: That Israel be a state with a Jewish majority or
that Judea and Samaria always remain under Israel's control even if they are
areas with a large Palestinian population? A clear picture emerges:
two-thirds of Jewish respondents preferred maintaining the Jewish nature of
the state, while less than a fourth (23%) opted for continued rule over all
the territories of the Land of Israel that Israel currently holds, complete
with their Palestinian population.

The Findings in Detail

The first issue we focused on this month was the public’s positions on
different kinds of "price-tag" actions—those directed against Palestinians
and those directed against the IDF. We assumed that the positions on these
two kinds of actions would be different. We asked a typical projection
question: “In the Israeli Jewish public as a whole, does the majority
support or oppose price-tag actions against Palestinians?” Fifty-seven
percent of Jewish respondents believe that the majority of the Israeli
Jewish public opposes price-tag actions against Palestinians, about
one-quarter think the public is divided, and some 10% think that the
majority supports these actions. In other words, the assessment is that
there is more opposition in the Jewish public than division or support, and
it is possible that this reflects the distribution pattern of views among
the respondents themselves. As for Arab respondents, the situation is the
opposite: the prevailing opinion (42%) is that the Jewish majority supports
price-tag actions against Palestinians, while only 25% think the majority
opposes them (the remaining respondents take positions in between the two or
do not know).

When it comes to the Jewish public’s position on price-tag actions against
the IDF, the general pattern among the Jewish respondents is similar though
more pronounced: in this case, close to 90% of the Jewish public think the
majority opposes actions against the IDF. Arab respondents, however, are
divided in their opinions: 48% think the Jewish majority opposes these
actions, while 44% think that the Jewish public is evenly split between
support and opposition. That is, the same Arab respondents who thought a
majority of the Jewish public supports price-tag actions against
Palestinians understands that actions against the IDF are different, and
their assessment, therefore, is that opposition to such acts is widespread.

Since the perpetrators of price-tag attacks have come from the settler
population, we examined the general public’s view of the settlers’ positions
on price-tag actions against Palestinians. Here too the common assessment
(46%) of Jewish respondents is that most settlers oppose such actions, but
the rate of those who think the majority of settlers support price-tag
actions against the Palestinians is almost double (19%) the rate assumed
regarding the support of price-tag actions against Palestinians among the
public as a whole. The Arab respondents hold the opposite view: 51% think
most of the settlers do in fact support price-tag actions against
Palestinians, while 21% think half of settlers do. Only about one-quarter of
Arab respondents say that the majority of settlers oppose price-tag actions
against Palestinians.

As for the settlers’ positions on price-tag actions against the IDF, 71% of
the Jewish respondents believe that the majority of settlers oppose such
actions. Among the Arab respondents, the prevailing opinion was also that
the majority of settlers oppose actions against the IDF (41%), but 21%
thought that half of settlers support such actions with the other half
opposed, while 29% of Arab respondents see most of the settlers as
supporting price-tag actions against the IDF.

As in October, we asked whether or not the government’s measures against
price-tag perpetrators are appropriate. Whereas in October, the prevailing
opinion in the Jewish public was that the government's responses are
appropriate, this month the most common view among Jewish respondents (48%)
is that the authorities are treating the perpetrators too leniently; about a
third (30%) regard the measures as appropriate (compared to 38% in October),
and 12% see the government's measures as too harsh (similar to the 13% who
expressed this view two months ago). The difference between October and
December apparently stems from the fact that the major recent price-tag
actions were carried out against IDF commanders and facilities. As for the
Arab respondents, as in the past, 70% currently say that the authorities are
treating the price-tag perpetrators too leniently.

As reported in the news, Prime Minister Netanyahu decided not to define the
price-tag perpetrators as "terrorists," while the defense minister and the
internal security minister said that perpetrators of such actions should be
defined as "terrorists" in order to facilitate effective action against
them. We therefore asked: was the prime minister right or wrong when he
decided not to define the perpetrators of price-tag actions as “terrorists”?
The Jewish public is divided (47%-46%) on this question. A clear majority
(72%) of the Arab respondents, however, think that the prime minister was
not right.

Regarding the defense minister, we asked an additional question: “Germany,
France, Portugal, and Britain recently condemned the Israeli government’s
decision to renew building in the territories as well as Israel's failure to
prevent price-tag actions. Foreign Minister Lieberman reacted sharply and
said this condemnation made these countries ‘irrelevant’ to the process of
resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In contrast, Defense Minister
Ehud Barak said that these are friendly countries and that ‘in dealing with
them, we not only have to be right but also smart.’" With which of these two
positions do you tend to agree more?” In the Jewish public, we found that
the rate of those favoring Barak’s position (56%) is considerably higher
than the rate of those supporting Lieberman’s position (36%). This division
of positions seems to explain the differing assessments of Lieberman’s
performance as foreign minister and of Barak’s performance as defense
minister. The rate (a majority) of those who think Barak is performing well
(58%) is higher than the rate (a minority) who think the same about
Lieberman (48%).

We went on to probe what is more important in the eyes of the Jewish public
today—a Jewish majority in the State of Israel or control of Judea and
Samaria? We asked: “In principle, what is more important to you: that Israel
be a country with a Jewish majority or that Judea and Samaria always remain
under Israel's control even if they are areas with a large Palestinian
population?” The picture is clear: two-thirds preferred preserving the
Jewish character of the country, while less than a fourth (23%) favored
continued control over all parts of the Land of Israel that Israel currently
controls, complete with their Palestinian population. A segmentation by
respondents’ degree of religiosity showed that only among religious Jews
does a minority prefer continued control of the territories over ensuring
that Israel has a Jewish majority (the rate preferring that Israel have a
Jewish majority is 57% for haredi respondents, 32% for religious, 69% for
traditional-religious, 79% for traditional-secular, and 70.5% for secular
respondents).

Amid the ongoing discussion of which values should be of cardinal importance
to the Israeli collective, we tried to clarify to the extent to which the
citizens of Israel currently support the values set forth in the Declaration
of Independence. The survey findings show that, at present, only about
two-thirds (63.5%) of the Jewish public thinks the state of Israel should
fulfill all the principles that form the constitutional basis of Israel’s
definition as a Jewish democratic state, including total equality of social
and political rights for all citizens without regard to religion, race, and
gender; ensuring freedom of religion, conscience, language, education, and
culture; and safeguarding the holy places of all religions. About
one-quarter of respondents say Israel should fulfill most of these
principles, and 9% say that Israel should fulfill only some of them. The
pattern of support in the Arab public is similar, but the rate of support
for fulfilling all of the principles of the Declaration’s is lower—54%.
Twenty-four percent are in favor of fulfilling most of the principles, while
10% favor fulfilling only some.

A partial explanation for the reservations of a considerable minority about
fulfilling all of the aforementioned principles can perhaps be found in the
Jewish public’s widespread perception (71%) that the state is currently only
partially upholding these principles. Four percent think that Israel is not
upholding them at all, while only 21% think Israel is upholding them
completely. In other words, in the eyes of the Jewish public, the state
itself cannot serve as an example for maintaining the democratic values set
forth in the Declaration of Independence. Among Arab respondents, 50% think
the state is only partially fulfilling the values of the Declaration, while
47% think that the state is not fulfilling them at all. Only 3% responded
that Israel is fully upholding these values.

The Negotiations Index for December, 2011
The Peace Index project includes ongoing monitoring of the Israeli public's
attitudes towards peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian
Authority. The monthly
Negotiation Index is comprised of two questions, one focusing on public
support for peace negotiations and the other on the degree to which the
public believes that such talks will actually lead to peace. The aggregated
replies to these two questions are calculated, combined, and standardized on
a scale of 0-100, in which 0 represents total lack of support for
negotiations and lack of belief in their potential to bear fruit, and 100
represents total support for the process and belief in its potential. Each
month, the Negotiations Index presents two distinct findings, one for the
general Israeli population and the other for Jewish Israelis.

Negotiations Index: General sample: 47.0%; Jewish sample: 47.7%

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The Peace Index is a project of the Evens Program in Mediation and Conflict
Resolution at Tel Aviv University and the Israel Democracy Institute. This
month's survey was conducted by telephone on December 26-28 by the Dahaf
Institute. The survey included 600 respondents, who constitute a
representative sample of the adult Jewish population of Israel. The
measurement error for a sample of this size is 4.5%; statistical processing
was done by Ms. Yasmin Alkalay.