[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA: IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz is in excellent
company among senior IDF officials who are profoundly unable to make policy
recommendations based on analysis with a time frame beyond a few days. The
top brass at the IDF for years has been calling on Israel to retreat from
the Golan Heights in return for a piece of paper, arguing that the gizmos we
have can address the challenge. They refused to consider the possibility
that those gizmos may be outdated in the future. For that matter, they
couldn't entertain the possibility that changes in Syria could create
circumstances that, even with the Golan in their possession, the ruling
Syrian leadership [headed by the Assad family in perpetuity?!?] would opt
for other reasons to wage war with the Jewish State.

When a dog gets hit by a car as he crosses the street does he look both ways
the next time? Answer: not if there's a bouncing ball on the other side of
the street.

When IDF analysts see that policy recommendations based on painfully short
planning horizon are worthless do they start taking a longer view? ]

IDF Prepares To Accept Syrian Refugees on Golan Heights

Chief of Staff says Assad will fall and the IDF can take in Alawite refugees
to the Golan. A large influx might threaten Israeli control.

By Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu Arutz 7 First Publish: 1/10/2012, 3:46 PM
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/151597

IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz said Tuesday that he expects Syrian President
Bashar Assad to lose power and that the IDF is planning to absorb a large
influx of Alawite Muslim refugees in the Golan Heights.

The Alawites are a minority in Syria but rule the country under Assad, and a
full-scale presence in the Golan Heights would threaten the bare Jewish
majority in the area. The Druze comprise almost 50 percent of the Golan
population, and a larger non-Jewish population could re-ignite attempts by
the United States and other Western countries to pressure Israel to give up
the strategic area to Syria in return for a peace treaty.

"The day the Assad regime falls, this is expected to hurt the Alawite sect.
We are getting ready to take in Alawite refugees in the Golan Heights,” Lt.
Gen. Gantz told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Security Committee.

The Golan was occupied by Syria until the Six-Day War in 1967, and Israel
officially took sovereignty in 1981, although it is not recognized by the
international community. Despite the presence of 40,000 Jews and a large
industrial complex, including an internationally-acclaimed winery, foreign
media usually dateline stories from the area as the “Occupied Golan
Heights.”

Several center-left political leaders in Israel, including Likud Knesset
Member Dan Meridor, have backed giving up the Golan Heights for a peace
pact. The area has large water resources and is eagerly sought by Assad,
whose country has the same water shortage problem as does Israel.