Iranians Split, 40% to 35%, on Nuclear Military Power

Half support cutting ties with countries that impose sanctions

by Jay Loschky and Anita Pugliese Gallup
February 15, 2012
http://www.gallup.com/poll/152633/Iranians-Split-Nuclear-Military-Power.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=syndication&utm_content=plaintextlink&utm_term=Iran

WASHINGTON, D. C. – Based on surveys conducted December 16, 2011 – January
10, 2012, Iranians are more likely to approve of Iran developing its nuclear
power capabilities for non-military use (approve 57% disapprove 19%) than
for military use (40%). They are more mixed about military use, which Iran
insists it is not pursuing, with 40% approving and 35% disapproving. Nearly
one in four (24%) did not express an opinion either way.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors are preparing to return
to Iran next week for more talks about the "'possible military dimensions'
to Iran's disputed nuclear program." The IAEA's visit may ease tensions
following waves of economic sanctions by the United Nations, the U.S., and
Western Europe against Iran's program. Following the EU's ban on oil from
Iran, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said
international pressure would not deter his country from pursuing a peaceful
nuclear program and warned that sanctioning countries would not find Iran's
response "pleasant."

Although most Iranians expect the economic sanctions to hurt their
livelihoods, nearly half (46%) approve of cutting diplomatic relations with
countries that impose economic sanctions on it. A sizable minority of
Iranians, 31%, disapprove of cutting ties.

Highly Educated Iranians More Critical of Military Use of Nuclear Power

Regardless of education level, more Iranians approve than disapprove of Iran
developing nuclear capability for non-military use. However, Iranians who
completed four years of college are most likely to approve of nuclear power
capabilities for non-military use (76%), compared with those with secondary
school education (59%) or less (46%). Iranian adults with higher education
are also more likely to oppose developing Iran's nuclear power for military
purposes (48%), compared with those with secondary school education (39%) or
less (25%) and are more likely to oppose cutting ties with countries that
impose economic sanctions on Iran (44% ), compared with those with secondary
school education (37%) or less (17%).

Implications

As governments in the West and Israel step up sanctions and weigh potential
military options as a solution for stopping Iran's nuclear program, many
experts fear that hostile actions taken against Iran will only strengthen
the regime internally. Iranians' opinion about their country's own nuclear
program remains far from uniform with support for peaceful non-military
nuclear use higher than support for military purposes.

While the IAEA continues its work in Iran to determine the nature of its
nuclear program, Western governments looking for long-term change in Iran
should consider how the people of Iran will perceive their actions,
particularly when a sizable minority of Iranians do not want to cut ties
with these nations.

For complete data sets or custom research from the more than 150 countries
Gallup continually surveys, please contact
SocialandEconomicAnalysis@gallup.com or call 202.715.3030.

Survey Methods

Results are based on landline telephone interviews conducted from a
telephone center outside Iran with approximately 1,000 adults, aged 15 and
older, conducted Dec. 16, 2011-Jan. 10, 2012, in Iran. For results based on
the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that
the maximum margin of sampling error is +/-3.8 percentage points.

The margin of error reflects the influence of data weighting. In addition to
sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting
surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.