It’s possible to say that the system is paralyzed due to the debate over the
defense budget.

Israel Is Under Attack and the Defense Establishment is Paralyzed
The heads of the defense establishment and the defense industries gathered
this week at the Singapore Air Show, where the bad reports and considerable
tension also arrived. The attack on the Israeli delegations is merely the
promo for what will happen during the spring and summer
Amir Rapaport, Singapore 17/2/2012
http://www.israeldefense.com/?CategoryID=483&ArticleID=937

The Israeli Minister of Defense, Ehud Barak, was in the midst of meetings
with senior Singaporean persons, when the reports came in on Monday of the
terror attack in New Delhi and the terror attempt on Embassy personnel in
Georgia.

Barak received several minutes’ worth of updates, and then continued his
meetings. Later in the week, Barak also learned of the plans to carry out a
terror attack in Bangkok, which apparently failed due to a work accident.
This was when it went too far: the Israeli political-security cabinet
assembled a special session.

Though little is known concerning the investigation of the various events,
the bottom line is already clear: Israel is under attack. Iran and Hezbollah
are deeply motivated to avenge, and in their perception, they have good
reason to extort a heavy cost.

However, it could have been a far worse week. The Israeli-Iranian conflict
is far from exhaustion; there's a reasonable chance that Palestinian
organizations might succeed in their attempts to abduct a soldier to replace
Gilad Shalit; and it's quite possible that Israel might invade the Gaza
Strip – this time with the aim of toppling the Hamas regime.

Any regional development could ignite the already fervid Egyptian climate
and endanger the stability of the Egyptian government, along with its
fragile peace agreement with Israel. If this wasn't enough, there might be a
northern conflagration (as a result of preemptive Israeli action) along the
Israel-Lebanese border in parallel to the fall of Assad’s regime in Syria.

A Crisis of Leadership

Though these scenarios, along with an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear
facilities (prior to the Iranian's transfer of their centrifuges to
underground facilities during the summer) are not certain, these arenas
might erupt.

What would you expect of the defense establishment in a period with such a
somber and tempestuous forecast (predicted by more than just the
meteorological service for the weekend)? That it diligently prepare for any
threat scenario or that its entire attention be directed towards training
and procuring all the necessary equipment?

Well, that’s just it – the defense establishment is doing neither. It’s
possible to say that the system is paralyzed due to the debate over the
defense budget. On the bright side, it's also possible to note that the IDF
dramatically improved its level of readiness and competence in a long
process that began after the Second Lebanon War. The less pleasant side is
that the IDF and the Ministry of Defense are under pressure. For the first
time since the 1980s, a force needs to be established to protect the
southern front. The bottom line: Israel needs to prepare for a massive
attack on the home front.

However, the pressure on the home front was not felt just in Israel, it was
also sensed at the Singapore Air Show.

Singapore won considerable public attention when it hosted the finale of the
popular Israeli television show, “The Amazing Race.” From the perspective of
the Israeli defense establishment, it's already been a familiar location for
many years. The fact that all of Israel’s most senior defense officials,
both from its defense establishment and from the industries, arrived at the
exhibition, testifies to the significance of this tiny country.

With 670 square kilometers in total, spectacular skyscrapers, a national GDP
of more than $50,000 per capita, and third-world countries bordering it from
all sides, Singapore is very much a sister country to Israel. The order, the
cleanliness, and the discipline are mesmerizing. With English as the
official language, the city-country is an enlightened, capitalist
dictatorship that the public loves out of reverence, not out of fear.

The air show took place in an orderly hall on the outskirts of the Singapore
airport. As usual, the Israeli defense establishments generated considerable
interest among buyers from Asian countries – nearly the only area in the
world not suffering from a dwindling economy.

In an unprecedented manner, the heads of the defense industries directed
their attention towards the senior officials of the IDF and the defense
establishment. The air show constituted the first direct encounter between
the senior officials of the Ministry of Defense and the IDF, and the senior
officials of the defense industries.

In light of several frozen projects, including the Merkava tank and Namer
APC, tension emerged during their meetings. The senior players in the
defense industries asked for Israel’s defense budget for different projects.
In a two-word answer, the Ministry of Defense responded: “we can't.” When
IAF Commander Major General Ido Nechushtan arrived at the Rafael pavilion,
one could sense the tension in the air. The company’s CEO, Major General
(Res.) Didi Ya’ari, and the heads of the missile division surrounded him in
a ring.

A Dome with No Iron?

The main projects being developed by Rafael for the IAF are actually well
known: the Iron Dome system for intercepting short-range rockets and the
David’s Sling system for medium-range interception (in cooperation with the
US company Raytheon). When Rafael discussed the budgetary freezes with
Nechushtan, his response could be summarized in one sentence (which was not
said in these exact words): “we don't even have money to fly - what do you
want from me.”

Taking the opportunity to sort this week’s media publications pertaining to
the Iron Dome: At the start of the week, the Israeli daily “Yedioth
Aharonoth” published an article that said two of the four batteries meant to
be launched in the coming years (on top of the three that already exist)
will be cancelled due to cuts in the defense budget. This is an odd thing to
publish, whether it’s true or not, since the four batteries are fully funded
by the United States. If Israel does not construct all of them, they'll take
back the money.

What's important to know is that even if there are seven Iron Dome batteries
produced in two years, it’s doubtful that they'll have sufficient
interceptors to handle the large number of missiles possessed by the
countries and organizations surrounding Israel. What is important to know is
that according to the operational scenarios, Israel requires about 13-14
batteries to “cover” the country in its entirety. In a war scenario, the
initial batteries will protect air force bases – not the home front.

After his visit in Singapore, Ehud Barak continued to Japan for political
and defensive meetings. At the start of next week, all the heads of the
defense establishment and the industries should be back in the country.