Updating Israel’s Security Policy

Maj.-Gen. (res.) Amos Gilad, May 21, 2012
JCPA Vol. 12, No. 11 21 May 2012
http://jcpa.org/article/updating-israels-security-policy/

-Israel is living in a most convenient period of time from a security
standpoint. Suicide attacks are behind us and there is deterrence against
rocket attacks. At the same time there are unprecedented challenges to our
national security including the possibility of a nuclear Iran or even a
nuclear Middle East

-Iran’s capabilities for developing nuclear weapons are no longer a
question. They only have to make the decision. They have the know-how to
assemble nuclear warheads on missiles if they want to. Today there is a
consensus among the world’s intelligence agencies: Iran is a threat.

-I cannot imagine Saudi Arabia, Egypt, or any of the other Arab countries
tolerating a nuclear Iran. There is an Arabic word, “ajami,” which expresses
disgust of the Persians. If you ask any Arab leader about the greatest
threat, he will say Iran – not Israel – but not publicly.

-The terrorists in Sinai are financed by Iran and they want to murder as
many Israelis as they can. If there is terror from Sinai, this complicates
Israel’s relationship with Egypt, which is why we choose to preemptively
kill the terrorists.

-The Iranians and the Turks have a 1,000-year-old tradition of rivalry. I
cannot believe that the Turks believe there is room for friendship with
Iran. If Iran goes nuclear, the Turks will be very upset.

-There are political contacts all the time between Israel and the PA. But
even if we sign an agreement tomorrow, it cannot be implemented as long as
there is a division between Hamas and the PA. If we only sign with Abbas or
his colleagues, it would just be a treaty between Israel and Ramallah, and
no Palestinian would agree to this.

The Vital Role of Jordan

From a security perspective, the current period is a most convenient one for
Israel. We are not suffering from terror, after long years of being
attacked. This achievement is based on the unique intelligence capabilities
that we have developed, combined with the operational capabilities of the
IDF and state-of-the-art security in Jordan. I would like to thank Jordan,
even though they are not doing it for us but for their own interests. Jordan’s
state-of-the-art security is protecting a very complicated border. The
outcome, from the Israeli point of view, is a dramatic contribution to our
security. It is very difficult for terrorists to cross the Jordanian border,
and we enjoy the benefits.

Coordination with the Palestinian Authority

There is security coordination, but not cooperation, between Israel and the
Palestinian Authority. It is less significant than our own capabilities or
those of Jordan, but it is quite significant. It is based on the interest of
the Palestinian Authority to defeat its enemies, such as Hamas. While there
is talk of reconciliation between them, this is difficult to imagine since
Hamas wants to take over the PLO. The PLO holds the golden shares of
Palestinian nationalism, and the PA is a product of agreements between the
PLO and Israel. At the moment, Hamas, which is a part of the Muslim
Brotherhood, is seeking to take over both the PA and the PLO. For the time
being, the PA is quite important from a security point of view, even though
there has been a decline in the quality of its security performance.

There are political contacts all the time between Israel and the PA. But
even if we sign an agreement tomorrow, it cannot be implemented as long as
there is a division between Hamas and the PA. If we only sign with Abbas or
his colleagues, it would just be a treaty between Israel and Ramallah, and
no Palestinian would agree to this. Israel is committed to a two-state
solution and will do its best to resume negotiations with the Palestinians.
We are also talking with Jordan, which has hosted the talks in Amman. But I
am not offering an optimistic message that tomorrow a peace agreement will
be signed.

The Palestinians in Gaza possess rockets that are growing in number, quality
and range. They may be deterred from an immediate attack against us, but
there is no fundamental solution. They are anti-Israeli, both religiously
and nationally. They are very violent and believe in using terror. They are
doing their best to attack Israel, but they fail again and again because it
is almost impossible to send terrorist groups directly to Israel from Gaza.
Depending on Egypt, on diplomacy, or on our technology to protect us from
Gaza rockets is not a fundamental solution. It is an interim solution for an
immediate problem.

Along Israel’s Borders

Other good news is that Israel does have deterrence vis-à-vis the threats
around us. The north is flourishing. The Golan Heights is very stable and
quiet. In the south, we are enjoying partial deterrence. When violence does
erupt, Egypt has been successful in convincing Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the
others to maintain the quiet because it is clear that if these groups
continue to attack us, Egypt could suffer from Israel’s operations. So what
Egypt is doing is for its own interests.

I would not describe our relations with Egypt as coordination. I prefer to
say that it is in the Egyptian interest to keep stability and quiet. Without
Egypt, I cannot imagine there would be any reality of peace on Israel’s
southern front. They are the only ones who can convince the extremists to
remain quiet. The Egyptian security establishment is efficient and
professional.

The leader of any peace option is Egypt. Even a cold peace is better than
any war. This is a pillar of our national security. In our country, the best
option is to use the army only if you do not have another option.

The Threat to Israel from Iran

Israel’s identification of the Iranian nuclear threat was a great
intelligence achievement. We identified the threat of a nuclear Iran in the
mid-1990s, when Iran did not have a single missile that could reach Israel.
Iran’s capabilities for developing nuclear weapons are no longer a question.
They only have to make the decision. They have 5.5 tons of low-enriched
uranium. They have hundreds of Shahab-3 missiles which can travel 1,500 km.,
and they have missiles with a range of 2,200 km. Their ambition is to become
the regional superpower. They have the know-how to assemble nuclear warheads
on missiles if they want to.

They have not yet crossed the Rubicon. Khamenei, who is the leader, not
Ahmadinejad, relies on the brutal force of the Revolutionary Guard. Whenever
he finds it appropriate, he is determined to develop the option to decide to
develop nuclear weapons. He has not done so yet because he is shocked by the
magnitude of exposure of these secret projects. For example, two years ago
at the United Nations, the president of the United States exposed the
existence of a top-secret project near Qom, and the Iranians were shocked.
For a long time the world did not recognize the nature of this threat, but
now there is a consensus among the world’s intelligence agencies: Iran is a
threat.

There is no current existential threat to Israel, but a nuclear Iran has the
potential of creating such a threat when they get the bomb. If Ahmadinejad
and Khamenei keep saying that Israel does not have the right to exist, then
with nuclear capability it becomes serious. Without nuclear weapons, it
remains just a statement. Iran without nuclear capability is a terrible
threat but not an existential one. At the moment, they are using terror and
we are suffering from it. The main issue today is how to prevent a nuclear
Iran.

For the first time I see significant sanctions, but everything depends on
the result – if they decide to pull back from the nuclear project. But even
if they withdraw from the project, the know-how remains. In 2003, based on
the perception that there was an existential threat, Iran froze the project.

Today in Lebanon, Hizbullah, which murdered former Lebanese prime minister
Hariri, is a partner in the coalition government. The names of the murderers
are known to everybody, including to the Lebanese police. But the president
is not ordering the police to arrest the number two official in Hizbullah,
who is responsible for the murder. Most importantly, from Israel’s
perspective, Hizbullah has taken over half of Lebanon. Hizbullahstan is much
more powerful militarily, or even politically, than Lebanon itself, heavily
financed by Iran and Syria. They have at least 45,000 rockets, compared with
14,000 in 2006 at the time of the Second Lebanon War. There is also Iranian
terror all over the world, with Iranians whose base is in Lebanon.

I cannot imagine Saudi Arabia, Egypt, or any of the other Arab countries
tolerating a nuclear Iran. There is an Arabic word, “ajami,” which expresses
disgust of the Persians. A nuclear Iran will destroy the stability of the
Middle East and threaten the best interests of the world. If you ask any
Arab leader about the greatest threat, he will say Iran – not Israel – but
not publicly.

Concerned about Egypt

Israel is concerned about the dramatic changes in Egypt. There is no
alternative to peaceful relations between us and Egypt, and the leaders of
the Muslim Brotherhood have declared that they are committed to peace, but I
am not sure. Their ideology is different. Their dream is to establish an
Islamic empire at the expense of Egypt, Jordan, and Abbas’ Palestinian
Authority. Israel is excluded by definition since this is considered holy
waqf land.

The new Muslim Brotherhood-dominated parliament in Cairo has repeatedly
voted against relations with Israel. The Egyptians may declare they are
committed to peace, but they find excuses to undermine it. The Muslim
Brotherhood has visited Gaza, but mainly they are focusing on the political
process in Egypt, including elections and the new constitution. As of July,
there is to be a new president.

Israel is also concerned about Sinai, where we fully rely on the Egyptian
government and army to overcome all kinds of threats, including smuggling.
In order to preempt acts of terror, such as occurred last year, we are
relying on our intelligence. The terrorists in Sinai are financed by Iran
and they want to murder as many Israelis as they can. If there is terror
from Sinai, this complicates Israel’s relationship with Egypt, which is why
we choose to preemptively kill the terrorists. To do this you need to have
accurate and excellent intelligence all the time.

Syria Slaughters Its People

Of course Israel denounces the Syrian government’s slaughter of its people.
Assad is an Alawite, and he is slaughtering his opponents. He will continue
until he is defeated. For Israel, the Golan Heights is very quiet and stable
because the Syrians are busy with their own problems. There are concerns
about the fate of the strategic weapons that exist in Syria. For the time
being they are secure, but we need to be on alert.

A Changed Turkey

Both Turkey and Iran used to be our best friends. We are doing our best to
ease the tension between us and Turkey, but it is quite a challenge to
digest and understand the changes that have occurred in Turkey. We do not
like the way Turkey is cooperating with Iran from time to time, but the
Iranians and the Turks have a 1,000-year-old tradition of rivalry. I cannot
believe that the Turks believe there is room for friendship with Iran. If
Iran goes nuclear, the Turks will be very upset.

Excellent Dialogue with the U.S., China, and Russia

Israel’s security relations with the United States are excellent and very
valuable and qualitative – psychologically, militarily, and strategically.

Israel’s relations with China are excellent. Israeli Minister of Defense
Ehud Barak paid a four-day visit there. The Chinese chief-of-staff, with
almost 20 generals, has visited Israel, and our prime minister may visit
China soon. I am encouraged by China’s deep appreciation of Israel, which is
important both psychologically and economically. Israel has nominated a
cabinet minister to be the next ambassador in China, officially reflecting
an Israeli policy to enhance relations. At the same time, Israel has
commitments to the United States regarding some areas of cooperation with
China, and we are fully committed to them.

Putin of Russia was in Israel and expressed a deep commitment to our
national security. They consider the one million Russian Jews in Israel as
very important to Russia. However, the Russians are supplying weapons to
Syria, including a supersonic missile against ships and other strategic
targets. We have requested that they not supply such weapons because they
will fall into the hands of Hizbullah.

All together, there is a paradox here. Israel is living in one of the most
convenient periods of time from a security standpoint. Suicide attacks are
behind us and there is deterrence against rocket attacks. At the same time
there are unprecedented challenges to our national security including the
possibility of a nuclear Iran or even a nuclear Middle East, and we need to
be prepared for a wide range of developments.

* * *

This Jerusalem Issue Brief is based on a presentation by Maj.-Gen. (res.)
Amos Gilad at the Institute for Contemporary Affairs at the Jerusalem Center
for Public Affairs on April 3, 2012.

Publication: Jerusalem Issue Briefs

Filed Under: Egypt, IDF, Iran, Israel, Israeli Security, Syria, The
Middle East, Turkey

Tags: Iran, Security, Sinai, Turkey

About Maj.-Gen. (res.) Amos Gilad

Maj.-Gen. (res.) Amos Gilad is Director of Policy and Political-Military
Affairs at the Israel Ministry of Defense. Gen. Gilad has also served as the
Defense Ministry's Coordinator for the Administered Territories, Director of
the Research Division of the IDF's Intelligence Branch, and as the IDF
Spokesman