May 22, 2012
Most Egyptians Expect a Fair, Honest Election
Nearly three in four believe military will hand over power post-election
by Ahmed Younis and Mohamed Younis
http://www.gallup.com/poll/154793/Egyptians-Expect-Fair-Honest-Election.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=syndication&utm_content=plaintextlink&utm_term=Egypt
LOS ANGELES -- Eighty-six percent of Egyptians that Gallup surveyed in April
say they plan to vote in the presidential election that begins Wednesday,
and nearly as many (82%) expect the election to be fair and honest vs. 9%
not.
That so many Egyptians believe their election will be fair and plan to
participate are signs of stability for a country that has endured a lot
since former President Hosni Mubarak's ouster in early 2011. In the run-up
to the election, many candidates were disqualified for various reasons,
prompting protests from supporters of Hazem Salah Abu Ismail and others,
while leaving Egyptians with a smaller pool of candidates to choose from.
While some analysts worry limiting presidential candidates might discourage
some voters from participating, Egyptians are as likely to say they plan to
vote in April of this year(86% yes, 11% no) as they were in February (89%
yes, 10% no).
Egyptians' unwavering commitment to the electoral process even amid turmoil
may be a positive sign for the potential success of Egyptians' efforts to
vote in a president, write a constitution, and go on with the business of
addressing the nation's challenges.
Fewer Egyptians Expect Military to Give Up Power
The army has pledged to hand over power to the new president by July 1, but
tensions between the ruling military council and some pockets of Egyptian
society have continued to flare with recurring protests. From secular groups
and opposing Islamist ones to the "ultra" sports fans, the ruling military
council's decisions have been rejected numerous times since the fall of the
Mubarak regime.
Despite a noticeable drop between February and April 2012, 73% of Egyptians
still believe that the military will hand over power to a civilian
government after the presidential election vs. 12% no (in February it was
84% yes, 8% no).
As the clearest sign of a path to progress, Egyptians' faith in the process
that brings a new president is a promising sign for what has been at times a
chaotic transition. The widespread expectation that the military will hand
over power to a civilian government is a sign that most Egyptians enter the
polling booths this week view the outcome as a major watershed moment in
Egypt's transition.
Implications
Egypt is clearly moving in a direction where an eager electorate is ready to
participate in building the future. Despite a challenging transition, the
country is ready to turn the page and elect a new president. Gallup data
indicate that Islamist parties and groups lost support in the run up to the
election. It will be interesting to see how this loss in support will affect
the performance of the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi and the
non-party-affiliated leading Islamist candidate Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh.
With such faith and engagement in the process, candidates will organize
their teams across the country to win this historic vote.
For complete data sets or custom research from the more than 150 countries
Gallup continually surveys, please contact
SocialandEconomicAnalysis@gallup.com or call 202.715.3030 .
Survey Methods
Results are based on face-to-face interviews with 1,074 adults, aged 15 and
older, conducted April 8-15, 2012, in Egypt. For results based on the total
sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum
margin of sampling error is ±3.4 percentage points. The margin of error
reflects the influence of data weighting. In addition to sampling error,
question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can
introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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