Will Egypt Go Nuclear?
by Dr. Shaul Shay
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 182, September 13, 2012
http://www.biu.ac.il/SOC/besa/docs/perspectives182.pdf

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Though Egypt does not currently have a nuclear energy
program, that reality could soon change. Newly elected President Mohammed
Mursi made clear that Egypt wishes to create a civilian nuclear energy
program. Also of concern are statements made by leaders of Mursi’s party,
the Muslim Brotherhood, who call for Egypt to pursue a nuclear weapons
program. It is presently unclear whether the new president is sincere about
his desire for peaceful nuclear energy or if he concurs with his ideological
brethren.

Egypt does not currently possess a nuclear energy program, one that could
potentially be diverted for weapons purposes. Several factors can be
attributed for this reality, including previous leadership priorities,
supplier-based constraints, financial difficulties, and safety concerns.
Egypt is a member of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
and is the leading proponent of establishing a nuclear weapons-free Middle
East. This policy, however, may be changing. Egyptian President Mohammed
Mursi recently told a group of Egyptian expatriates living in China that
“Cairo is considering renewing the Egyptian nuclear program, which will be
purely for civilian purposes, to provide clean energy to the citizens of
Egypt.” During that trip, Mursi requested $3 billion from the Chinese to
build “power plants.”

New Intentions

This apparent change in intentions is based upon a July 2012 report of the
Egyptian Ministry of Electricity and Energy that argues for the creation of
a nuclear program. The report states that Egypt’s increasing demand for
electricity, requiring an additional 300 megawatts annually, cannot be met
under the current system. In addition, the drop in both traditional sources
of energy and employment opportunities means that Egypt should pursue the
more economically feasible alternative of nuclear energy. The project
incorporated specifications following the disaster at the nuclear reactor in
Fukushima, Japan in March 2011.

The report says that the nuclear plant in Al Dabaa, on the Mediterranean
coastline, will be the first of four nuclear power plants around the
country. Under the plan, Al Dabaa will become operational in 2019 and will
create jobs, giving the area a needed economic boost. The last nuclear plant
would become operational by 2025. While Mursi has not yet announced his
decision on whether to proceed with the project, a number of international
companies from Canada, China, France, Russia, South Korea, and the US have
already expressed interest in bidding for them.

The Muslim Brotherhood and the Nuclear Issue

Although Mursi renewed Egypt’s long-standing call for a nuclear weapons-free
zone in the Middle East at the recent Non-Aligned Movement conference in
Tehran, the Muslim Brotherhood, his party, has called on Egypt to develop a
nuclear weapons program since 2005. In that year’s parliamentary elections,
the Brotherhood called upon the government to develop Egypt’s “special
national programs,” including nuclear and armaments programs.

By 2006, members of the Muslim Brotherhood began advocating for a nuclear
weapons program. Dr. Hamdi Hassan, a Muslim Brotherhood spokesperson, stated
that Egyptians “are ready to starve” to obtain a nuclear weapon. Similarly,
Saad Al Husseyni, another Muslim Brotherhood representative, suggested that
Egypt develop a “strong and deterrent military power,” arguing that
developing nuclear weapons would be more effective in protecting Egypt than
promoting a nuclear weapons-free zone. In 2009, Muslim Brotherhood MP Dr.
Ibrahim Al-Ja’afari called for the militarization of Egypt’s nuclear program
to confront the military aspirations of various regional countries. In an
appeal to Egypt’s Defense and National Security Committee, he explained that
Egypt must pursue the acquisition of nuclear weapons, in light of the
accelerated arming of Israel and Iran.

Also in 2009, global Brotherhood leader Sheikh Yusuf Al-Qaradhawi said that
Muslim nations must possess nuclear weapons “in order to strike terror in
our enemies.” He also called on Muslims to “punish” the Jews, as Hitler had
done in the Holocaust. It was in February 2011 that Al-Qaradhawi was invited
by the Muslim Brotherhood to lead the victory celebration for Egypt’s
revolution at Tahrir Square. It is still unclear whether the statements of
Brotherhood leaders like Al-Qaradhawi are personal views or if they reflect
the position of the organization and President Mursi.

Motivations and Capabilities

The growing need for energy is not the only motivation behind Egypt’s
interest in a nuclear power program. Egypt sees itself as the leader of the
Arab world; therefore a decision to pursue nuclear energy serves political
purposes domestically as well as internationally. Undoubtedly, Iran’s
nuclear activities could elicit a regional nuclear race, as Tehran’s
traditional rivals in the Middle East —Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan,
and the Persian Gulf states — could counter the Iranian threat with nuclear
programs of their own.

The call for nuclear weapons has been voiced by other prominent Egyptians,
even those not affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. For example, retired
general Abd Al-Hamid Umran recently called on Egypt to obtain nuclear
weapons to deter Israel. “An Egyptian nuclear program – let’s call it
peaceful for the sake of argument – is about uranium enrichment,” he said.
Taking such an action would create global opposition but would “prevent
anyone from insolently attacking us.”

If Egypt were to decide to develop nuclear weapons it would not be starting
from zero. Past nuclear endeavors have left them with an experienced group
of physicists and engineers and a number of universities capable of training
a new generation of nuclear scientists. Yet, despite possessing a relatively
advanced capability in nuclear technology, Egypt is many years away from the
ability to produce nuclear weapons if it chose to do so. Israeli Defense
Minister Ehud Barak said that “Israel doesn’t see Egypt working toward a
military nuclear program.” Barak said problems arose when a country used its
civilian nuclear program to mask nuclear military work, but he doesn’t think
the Egyptians are trying to deceive the international community. Thus, it
remains to be seen whether the new Egypt will change the nuclear policy of
the old regime.

Col. (res.) Dr. Shaul Shay is former Deputy Head of the Israel National
Security Council and a research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for
Strategic Studies. He lectures at Bar-Ilan University and the Herzliya
Interdisciplinary Center.
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