Results: Abraham Center for Middle East Peace If Pigs Could Fly Polls

Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA: The Israeli media was filled today with the result
of the two "If pigs could fly" polls commissioned by the Daniel Abraham
Center for Middle East Peace.

Why "if pigs could fly"?

Well, take a look at what the pollsters are asking.

There's a trick to it.

Notice the loophole: "implementation would take place only after the
Palestinians would fulfill all their commitments with an emphasis on
fighting terror"

If you haven't figured it out yet, here is the obvious question that the
pollsters didn't ask: "Do you think, if Israel accepted this deal, that the
Palestinians would fulfill all their commitments?"

Judging from pretty much every poll of Israelis in the last decade, at least
75% would respond "NO" - and among Meretz voters at least 60% would also
answer "NO".

This of course brings us to an interesting question: why in the world do
65-66% of Jews reply "support"?

Well, let me answer that question with a question:

Why do most Israelis respond that we should negotiate with the Palestinians
when most Israelis respond that they don't think we will reach a deal if we
negotiate?

Still wondering?

How's this for an explanation? Many of the 65-66% of Jews reply "support"
because they think that this is a "have your cake and eat it too"
proposition. That is to say, we can placate the world, and in particular
the White House, by agreeing to the deal, but since " implementation would
take place only after the Palestinians would fulfill all their commitments
with an emphasis on fighting terror" the deal would never be implemented.

So who is right about the real thinking of the Israeli street? The folks
commissioning a poll that declines to actually figure out what the public is
really thinking or yours truly?

Well consider this result from a poll of Israelis interviewed by phone
between December 9 and 13, 2012 in a poll planned and supervised by Prof.
Yaacov Shamir, the Harry S. Truman
Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace and the Department of
Communication and Journalism at the Hebrew University
60% of Israelis think the Palestinians want to conquer Israel (42% also kill
most of the Jews & 18% not necessary kill the Jews)

And this Dahaf poll of Jews the end of November 2012 commissioned by the
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs:
Would a withdrawal to the 1967 borders and the division of Jerusalem bring
about an end of the conflict? Yes 15% No 83%

No. The Israeli street doesn't think that pigs can fly.

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New Polls on Israeli Public Opinion
December 2012
Positions of the Israeli Public Regarding a Possible Peace Agreement
The S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace
http://www.scribd.com/doc/118421778/New-Polls-on-Israeli-Public-Opinion-December-2012

#1 Machon Dahaf Poll taken first third of December 2012 among 500 people as
a representative sample of the adult population (Jews and Arabs, ages 18+)
of Israel.
#2 Rafi Smith Poll taken between December 11-12, 2012 among 600 people as
a representative sample of the adult population (Jews and Arabs, ages 18+)
of Israel. The margin of error is 4%.

Findings

1. Positions toward a peace agreement if one were reached between Israel
and the Palestinians

Interviewees were asked the following question:

If the government of Israel brought to a referendum a peace agreement that
would end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and whose implementation would
take place only after the Palestinians would fulfill all their commitments
with an emphasis on fighting terror, and the implementation would be
monitored and verified by the United States, will you support or oppose an
agreement based on the following principles:

- Two states: Israel the state of the Jewish people and Palestine the state
of the Palestinian people.
- Palestinian refugees will have a right to return only to the new state of
Palestine.
- The Palestinian state will be demilitarized, without an army.
- Borders will be based on the 1967 lines and will include land swaps equal
in size that will take into consideration Israel's security needs and will
maintain the large settlement blocks under Israeli sovereignty.
- Jewish neighborhoods of Jerusalem will come under Israeli sovereignty and
Arab neighborhoods under Palestinian sovereignty.
- The Old City within the walls will be without sovereignty and will be
jointly administered by the United States, Israel and the Palestinians. The
Holy Places will be under the same religious supervision as current
arrangements (for example, the Kotel will be under Israeli supervision and
responsibility).

To make sure that interviewees understood the principles, a question was
presented in regard to each of them separately:
“does this principle strengthen, reduce or leave unchanged your support of a
peace agreement?”

Only then, interviewees were asked: “If the government of Israel brought to
a referendum such a peace agreement would you vote for or against it?”

Dahaf:
Total: Support 67% Oppose 21% Refuse reply 12%
Jews: Support 65% Oppose 22% refuse reply 13%
Smith
Total: Support 68% Oppose 25% Refuse reply 7%
Jews: Support 66% Oppose 26% refuse reply 8%

In the Jewish sector, those who opposed the agreement were asked the
following series of questions (once an interviewee supported an agreement,
he/she were not asked further questions).

Dahaf:
% Still oppose among Jews
22.0 % Before add more conditions
19.3% And if, in addition, the United States would guarantee Israel’s
security as a Jewish state, would you then support or oppose the agreement?
17.9% And if, in addition, a strong security fence will be built along the
border, would you then support or oppose the agreement?
14.6% And if, in addition, the implementation of the agreement were
conditioned on the disarming of Hamas and ending its control of the Gaza
Strip, would you then support or oppose the agreement?
14.2% And if, in addition, the United States signed a mutual defense treaty
with Israel under which – if needed – the United States would commit to
defend Israel if attacked, would you then support or oppose the agreement?
13.4% And if, in addition, the Arab League will endorse the
Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement and the Arab countries would commit to
normalize relations with Israel, would you then support or oppose the
agreement?

Smith
% Still oppose among Jews
26% Before add more conditions
22% And if, in addition, the United States would guarantee Israel’s security
as a Jewish state, would you then support or oppose the agreement?
21% And if, in addition, a strong security fence will be built along the
border, would you then support or oppose the agreement?
18% And if, in addition, the implementation of the agreement were
conditioned on the disarming of Hamas and ending its control of the Gaza
Strip, would you then support or oppose the agreement?
17% And if, in addition, the United States signed a mutual defense treaty
with Israel under which – if needed – the United States would commit to
defend Israel if attacked, would you then support or oppose the agreement?
14% And if, in addition, the Arab League will endorse the
Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement and the Arab countries would commit to
normalize relations with Israel, would you then support or oppose the
agreement?