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Tuesday, January 8, 2013
The Peace Index ĖDecember 2012: Israeli Jews 66.7%:30.4% regardless of who wins the elections, no chance of progress with Palestinians in foreseeable future for reasons having nothing to do with Israel

7. Some claim that no matter which of the large parties wins in the
upcoming elections, the peace process with the Palestinians is at a
standstill for reasons that have nothing to do with Israel and there is no
chance of progress in the foreseeable future. Do you agree or disagree with
this claim?
Jews
1. Strongly agree 33.4
2. Moderately agree 33.3
3. Moderately disagree 18.2
4. Strongly disagree? 12.2
5. Donít know / Refuse to answer 2.9

The Peace Index Ė December 2012
(N=601)
31.12-2012 Ė 2.1.2013
http://www.peaceindex.org/indexMonthEng.aspx?num=248&monthname=December

1. What is your position on holding peace negotiations between Israel and
the Palestinian Authority?
Jews
1. Strongly in favor 31.5
2. Somewhat in favor 36.6
3. Somewhat opposed 13.1
4. Strongly opposed 14.1
5. Donít know / Refuse to answer 4.8

2. Do you believe or not believe that negotiations between Israel and the
Palestinian Authority will lead to peace between Israel and the Palestinians
in the coming years?
Jews
1. Strongly believe 4.5
2. Somewhat believe 26.7
3. Somewhat donít believe 24.5
4. Donít believe at all 42.1
5. Donít know / Refuse to answer 2.1

3. Do you support or oppose a peace agreement with the Palestinians based
on the principle of two states for two peoples?
Jews
1. Strongly oppose 17.6
2. Somewhat oppose 18.1
3. Somewhat support 35.9
4. Strongly support 23.9
5. Donít know / Refuse to answer 4.4

4. In your opinion, what are the chances that if the upcoming elections
result in a new government headed by Netanyahu, the government will work to
renew the negotiations with the Palestinian Authority?
Jews
1. Very high chances 3.9
2. Moderately high chances 25.9
3. Moderately low chances 44.5
4. Very low chances 19.6
5. Donít know / Refuse to answer 6.1
5. Please indicate the extent to which each of the following leaders is
suitable or unsuitable for dealing with the political-security domain:

5.1 Binyamin Netanyahu
Jews
1. Suitable 52.8
2. So-so 30.3
3. Unsuitable 13.8
4. Donít know / Refuse to answer 3.1

5.2 Tzipi Livni
Jews
1. Suitable 18.7
2. So-so 24.1
3. Unsuitable 53.0
4. Donít know / Refuse to answer 4.1

5.3 Yair Lapid
Jews
1. Suitable 7.7
2. So-so 16.7
3. Unsuitable 66.9
4. Donít know / Refuse to answer 8.7

5.4 Shaul Mofaz
Jews
1. Suitable 21.9
2. So-so 28.1
3. Unsuitable 43.2
4. Donít know / Refuse to answer 6.8

5.5 Shelley Yachimovich
Jews
1. Suitable 14.1
2. So-so 24.6
3. Unsuitable 54.7
4. Donít know / Refuse to answer 6.7

5.6 Naftali Bennett
Jews
1. Suitable 25.4
2. So-so 14.7
3. Unsuitable 43.3
4. Donít know / Refuse to answer 16.6

5.7 Avigdor Lieberman
Jews
1. Suitable 28.4
2. So-so 18.1
3. Unsuitable 49.5
4. Donít know / Refuse to answer 3.9

6. To what extent is each of the following leaders suitable or unsuitable
for dealing with the socioeconomic domain:

6.1 Binyamin Netanyahu
Jews
1. Suitable 35.9
2. So-so 27.4
3. Unsuitable 33.9
4. Donít know / Refuse to answer 2.8

6.2 Tzipi Livni
Jews
1. Suitable 19.2
2. So-so 32.8
3. Unsuitable 42.0
4. Donít know / Refuse to answer 6.0

6.3 Yair Lapid
Jews
1. Suitable 25.0
2. So-so 25.4
3. Unsuitable 38.9
4. Donít know / Refuse to answer 10.7

6.4 Shaul Mofaz
Jews
1. Suitable 12.2
2. So-so 25.2
3. Unsuitable 53.3
4. Donít know / Refuse to answer 9.4

6.5 Shelley Yachimovich
Jews
1. Suitable 45.4
2. So-so 22.1
3. Unsuitable 24.4
4. Donít know / Refuse to answer 8.2

6.6 Naftali Bennett
Jews
1. Suitable 20.2
2. So-so 25.8
3. Unsuitable 32.3
4. Donít know / Refuse to answer 21.7

6.7 Avigdor Lieberman
Jews
1. Suitable 17.0
2. So-so 19.5
3. Unsuitable 54.8
4. Donít know / Refuse to answer 8.7

7. Some claim that no matter which of the large parties wins in the
upcoming elections, the peace process with the Palestinians is at a
standstill for reasons that have nothing to do with Israel and there is no
chance of progress in the foreseeable future. Do you agree or disagree with
this claim?
Jews
1. Strongly agree 33.4
2. Moderately agree 33.3
3. Moderately disagree 18.2
4. Strongly disagree? 12.2
5. Donít know / Refuse to answer 2.9

8. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements:

8.1 Settlements in Judea and Samaria should not be dismantled under any
circumstances
Jews
1. Strongly agree 28.2
2. Moderately agree 22.4
3. Moderately disagree 20.2
4. Donít agree at all 26.2
5. Donít know / Refuse to answer 3.0

8.2 In the framework of a peace agreement that includes appropriate security
arrangements, the Arab neighborhoods in East Jerusalem could be transferred
to the Palestinians (IMRA: If pigs could flyÖ)
Jews
1. Strongly agree 13.0
2. Moderately agree 25.9
3. Moderately disagree 17.8
4. Donít agree at all 40.3
5. Donít know / Refuse to answer 3.1

8.3 Israel should follow the policy of the present government, even at the
cost of a clash with the U.S. administration if the administration strongly
opposes the policy
Jews
1. Strongly agree 21.1
1. Moderately agree 29.2
2. Moderately disagree 22.8
3. Donít agree at all 19.8
4. Donít know / Refuse to answer 7.1

8.4 In the framework of a peace agreement that includes appropriate
security arrangements, the Golan Heights could be returned to Syria (IMRA:
If pigs could flyÖ)
Jews
1. Strongly agree 2.6
2. Moderately agree 8.2
3. Moderately disagree 13.7
4. Donít agree at all 71.7
5. Donít know / Refuse to answer 3.7

8.5 In the framework of a peace agreement that includes appropriate
security arrangements, one should agree to the establishment of an
independent Palestinian state (IMRA: If pigs could flyÖWhy not also ask if
there is such a thing as ďappropriate security arrangementsĒ?)
Jews
1. Strongly agree 20.0
2. Moderately agree 37.5
3. Moderately disagree 14.2
4. Donít agree at all 24.0
5. Donít know / Refuse to answer 4.3

9. What is more important to you Ė that Israel be a country with a Jewish
majority or that it include all the Land of Israel west of the Jordan?
(IMRA: Forcing the view that this is the trade-off, regardless of if the
demographic projections say otherwise)
Jews
1. That Israel be a country with a Jewish majority 70.5
2. That Israel include all the Land of Israel west of the Jordan 11.1
3. Both to the same extent 10.2
4. Neither 2.6
5. Donít know / Refuse to answer 5.6

10. Do you think left-wing soldiers have a right to refuse to serve in
the territories because of their opposition to the occupation?
Jews
1. Iím sure they do 4.5
2. I think they do 6.2
3. I think they donít 20.8
4. Iím sure they donít 65.3
5. Donít know / Refuse to answer 3.2

11. Do you think right-wing soldiers have a right to refuse to take part
in dismantling Jewish settlements in the territories if the government
decides to do so?
Jews
1. Iím sure they do 14.5
2. I think they do 9.3
3. I think they donít 20.7
4. Iím sure they donít 52.4
1. Donít know / Refuse to answer 3.1

12. In your opinion, what should a religious soldier obey if there is a
contradiction between an order from the army and a rabbinical ruling on the
issue of dismantling settlements?
Jews
1. The order from the army 75.6
2. The rabbinical ruling 18.0
3. Canít decide/each one according to his conscience 3.3
4. Donít know / Refuse to answer 3.1
The Peace Index:
December

2012

Date Published: 08/01/2013

Survey dates: 31/12/2012 - 02/01/2013

The December Index

Right or left? Some two weeks before the elections, the Peace Index survey
reveals what we already know: the Jewish publicís positions reflect the
right-wing mood that has prevailed for some time in Israeli Jewish society,
at least when it comes to the political-security domain. This tendency is
evident, first of all, in the respondents' self-definition: 55% of the Jews
define themselves as right-wing in this area, while 21% define themselves as
center and 17% as left. The same holds true for voting intentions: about 50%
of Jewish respondents report that they intend to vote for secular right-wing
and religious right-wing parties, and 30% for parties of the center and the
left, while the rest of the respondents have not yet decided or did not
respond. Likewise, on the question of who is best suited to deal with
political-security issues, 53% chose current Likud leader and prime minister
Binyamin Netanyahu, with two other figures with a pronounced right-wing
profile considerably behind him: Avigdor Liberman (28%) and Naftali Bennett
(25%). Only 19% see Tzipi Livni, who presents herself as an expert on these
types of issues, as suited to deal with them (even Shaul Mofaz, at 21%, did
better than her in this area). Only 14% view Shelly Yachimovich as qualified
to deal with political-security issues, and even fewer (8%) consider Yair
Lapid to be qualified.

Self-definition of Jewish respondents in the socioeconomic domain is as
follows: 33% affiliate with the social-democratic camp in its various
shadings, 40% position themselves in the center, and 22% place themselves in
the capitalist camp. When its comes to qualifications of leadership in this
domain, preferences similarly differ from those found in the
political-security area: the largest proportion of the Jewish public (45%)
views Labor Party chief Shelly Yachimovich as best suited to deal with these
issues, while Netanyahu comes in a good deal lower (36%). In third place is
Yair Lapid (25%), followed by Naftali Bennett (20%) and Tzipi Livni (19%).

A cross-tabulation of the responses regarding voting intentions in the
upcoming elections on the one hand, and political self-definition as right,
center, or left on the other, reveals a majority defining themselves on the
right among respondents intending to vote for the following parties (in
descending order): United Torah Judaism (100%), Habayit Hayehudi (96.5%),
and Likud (85%). A majority defining themselves as centrists was found among
those intending to vote for Kadima (83%), Hatnuah (71%), and Yesh Atid
(50%). Not surprisingly, a majority defining themselves as left-wing was
found only among those intending to vote for Labor (57%) and Meretz (96%).

Negotiating with the Palestinians. On specific issues related to the
political-security domain, the Jewish publicís positions also align more
with the positions of the right. Some 67% agree with the assertion that no
matter which parties prevail in the elections, the peace process with the
Palestinians will remain at a standstill for reasons not connected to
Israel, and there is no chance of progress in the foreseeable future. It
comes as no surprise, then, that almost two-thirds (64%) see the likelihood
of a Netanyahu-led government renewing the negotiations with the Palestinian
Authority as moderately low or very low. Indeed, about half of the Jewish
public affirms that Israel should follow the policy of the present
government even at the cost of a confrontation with the U.S. administration!

Right-wingóbut moderate. At the same time, it appears, at least on the
surface, that the Jewish publicís right-wing mood is closer to the moderate
right than to the radical right. Even at present, a majority of 60% support
a peace agreement with the Palestinians based on the
two-states-for-two-peoples solution. A segmentation of the positions on this
question by voting intentions reveals some very surprising results. A peace
agreement according to the two-state formula is supported by 100% of those
intending to vote Meretz, 88% of Hatnuah voters, 83% of Yesh Atid voters,
80% of Kadima and Labor voters, and 52% of those intending to vote Likudóbut
it is only supported by 32% of Habayit Hayehudi voters, 13% of Shas voters,
and 10% of those intending to vote for United Torah Judaism. Likewise, 57.5%
of all the Jewish respondents would agree to the establishment of an
independent Palestinian state if there were appropriate security
arrangements. At the same time, one cannot ignore the fact that a majority,
albeit small (51% vs. 46%), holds the opinion that under no circumstances
should settlements in Judea and Samaria be dismantled. A larger majority
(58%) disagrees with the position that if there is a peace agreement that
includes appropriate security arrangements, the Arab neighborhoods in East
Jerusalem can be transferred to the Palestinians. In other words, the Jewish
public may support the two-state solution, but only on Israelís terms.

The people are with the Golan. A very interesting finding, perhaps explained
by the current developments in Syria, is that a much larger majority than
the majority that opposes transferring East Jerusalem to the Palestinians if
there is a peace agreement opposes returning the Golan Heights to the
Syrians even if there is a peace agreement that includes appropriate
security arrangements (84%). A segmentation of the responses to this
question by voting intentions reveals that in all the partiesówith the
exception of Meretz, where 50% of prospective voters would agree to cede the
Golan in return for peace with Syriaóa majority opposes relinquishing the
Heights even for peace.

A Jewish state or the Greater Land of Israel? Another finding that should be
taken into account, and which the Peace Index surveys turn up repeatedly, is
that a decisive majority of 71.5% of the Jewish public regards a Jewish
majority in the State of Israel as more important than having the State of
Israel include all parts of the Land of Israel west of the Jordan. Here, a
segmentation of the responses by voting intentions shows that only among
those intending to vote for Habayit Hayehudi and United Torah Judaism is
there only a minority of respondents (47% and 30%, respectively) who prefer
a state with a Jewish majority to Israeli rule over all parts of the Land of
Israel.

The Negotiations Index for December, 2012
The Peace Index project includes ongoing monitoring of the Israeli public's
attitudes towards peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian
Authority. The monthly Negotiation Index is comprised of two questions, one
focusing on public support for peace negotiations and the other on the
degree to which the public believes that such talks will actually lead to
peace. The aggregated replies to these two questions are calculated,
combined, and standardized on a scale of 0-100, in which 0 represents total
lack of support for negotiations and lack of belief in their potential to
bear fruit, and 100 represents total support for the process and belief in
its potential. Each month, the Negotiations Index presents two distinct
findings, one for the general Israeli population and the other for Jewish
Israelis.

Negotiations Index: General sample 49.0; Jewish sample 47.2.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Peace Index is a project of the Evens Program in Mediation and Conflict
Resolution at Tel Aviv University and the Israel Democracy Institute. This
month's survey was conducted by telephone from December 31, 2012 to January
2, 2013, by the Dahaf Institute. The survey included 601 respondents, who
constitute a representative sample of the adult population of Israel. The
measurement error for a sample of this size is 4.5%; statistical processing
was done by Ms. Yasmin Alkalay.

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