Observation: Likud Pawns Forever?

Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 3 March 2013

There is one group of political players not discussed in the spins going
fast and furious about plans by PM Netanyahu to launch a radical move after
he forms the government that will force Bennett's Bayit Yehudi to leave:
the Likud MKs.

Right now the Likud MKs are silent as each of them hopes to be rewarded for
their good behavior with a ministerial portfolio or at least a choice
Knesset Committee chairmanship.

But after the government forms and the dust settles the situation may be
considerably different. And this even more so in light of discussions about
plans to change the Likud system to strip the rank and file members who set
the current list of the power to determine who will represent them in the
next elections.

So there you are, an MK who invested in developing a reputation as a serious
member of the national camp. You aren't a minister and you know that the
rules may be changed to prevent you from being re-elected.

And PM Netanyahu pulls a Sharon.

Do you sit quietly, as your reputation goes down the toilet and this while
knowing that it will no doubt be you last term in the Knesset?

Hard to predict.

If Likud-Beiteinu stay together action will be more complicated.

But if, as planned, Likud Beitenu splits into Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu
after the government is formed, then there are all kinds of possibilities.

A third of the Likud MKs could split off as a faction and join with Bayit
Yehudi.

If a majority walks away they can even take the "Likud" name with them.

Would this scenario really play out?

Not necessarily. But it could be one heck of a deterrent.

After all, as the media complained after the Likud primaries, the Likud MKs
are for the most part truly committed to the national camp.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il